预估21世纪全球变暖在历史上的地位

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.027

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2022, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (5): 637-640.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.027

预估21世纪全球变暖在历史上的地位

赵宗慈¹^,²(), 罗勇¹, 黄建斌¹

1 清华大学地球系统科学系,北京 100084
2 中国气象局国家气候中心,北京 100081

出版日期:2022-09-30 发布日期:2022-04-29
作者简介:赵宗慈,女,研究员, zhaozongci@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn
基金资助:
科技部重点专项(2017YFA0603700);清华大学创新科学研究项目(20131089357)

Historical position of projected global warming in the 21st century

ZHAO Zong-Ci¹^,²(), LUO Yong¹, HUANG Jian-Bin¹

Online:2022-09-30 Published:2022-04-29

摘要/Abstract

赵宗慈, 罗勇, 黄建斌. 预估21世纪全球变暖在历史上的地位[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2022, 18(5): 637-640.

ZHAO Zong-Ci, LUO Yong, HUANG Jian-Bin. Historical position of projected global warming in the 21st century[J]. Climate Change Research, 2022, 18(5): 637-640.

图/表 3

表1 IPCC报告多模式多排放情景给出的全球未来表面温度变暖和海平面上升预估（最佳值,范围）[4]

Table 1 Projected global mean surface temperature warming and sea level rising in future based on five IPCC reports (best, range)[4]

表2 CMIP6考虑SSPs排放路径预估2081—2100年全球年平均气温相对于1850—1900年的变暖和2100年全球海平面相对于1995—2014年的上升（最佳,5%~95%非常可能范围）[4]

Table 2 Projected global annual mean surface temperature warming (2081-2100 related to 1850-1900) and sea level rising (2100 related to 1995-2014) by CMIP6 with SSPs

表3 古气候和历史气候主要暖期大气CO2浓度和全球温度与海平面变化以及近千年与现代参考时期气候特点与未来预估气候变化[4]

Table 3 Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, global surface temperature and global sea level during the multiple paleoclimate warm periods to compare with the last millennium and the reference periods, as well as the projected future climate change[4]

参考文献 7

[1]	WMO. WMO report on the state of the global climate 2020[R]. Geneva, 2020
[2]	赵宗慈, 罗勇, 黄建斌. 回顾 IPCC 30 年(1988—2018 年)[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2018, 14 (5): 540-546.
	Zhao Z C, Luo Y, Huang J B. Review IPCC 30 years (1988-2018)[J]. Climate Change Research, 2018, 14 (5): 540-546 (in Chinese)
[3]	IPCC. Climate change 2013: the physical science basis[M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2013
[4]	IPCC. Climate change 2021: the physical science basis[M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2021
[5]	Thorarinsdottir T, Sillmann J, Haugen M, et al. Evaluation of CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations of historical surface air temperature extremes using proper evaluation methods[J]. Environmental Research Letters, 2020, 15 (12): 15124041
[6]	Hermans T, Jonathan G, Matthew P, et al. Projecting global mean sea-level change using CMIP6 models[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2021, 48 (5). DOI: 10.1029/2020GL092064 doi: 10.1029/2020GL092064
[7]	Grant G R, Naish T R, Dunbar G B, et al. The amplitude and origin of sea-level variability during the Pliocene epoch[J]. Nature, 2019, 574 (2). DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1619-z doi: 10.1038/s41586-019-1619-z

预估21世纪全球变暖在历史上的地位

Historical position of projected global warming in the 21st century

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