极端高温事件对城市用水量和供水管网系统的影响

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.063

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

频发的极端高温事件将导致城市用水量增长,增加城市供水设施的运行风险。综合采用气候相似性、终端用水模拟、供水管网系统水力学模拟等方法,构建了极端高温事件对城市用水量及供水管网系统影响的定量评估方法。以北京某新城区为研究案例,模拟结果表明极端高温事件将使日用水量较夏季常态增加5.7%,人均日用水量增加19.83 L,其中早晚用水高峰时段增幅较大,导致供水管网系统中不能满足28 m水头要求的节点比例增加了约13个百分点。

关键词: 极端高温事件, 气候相似性, 用水量, 终端用水模拟, 供水管网系统

Abstract:

More frequent high temperature extremes caused by climate change may significantly increase urban water demand and consequently the vulnerability of urban water distribution systems (WDSs). A methodology was developed to quantify the impact of high temperature extremes on urban water demand and WDSs by integrating the methods of climate analogy, end use modeling and WDS hydraulic simulation. A case study on a new development area in Beijing showed that high temperature extremes could lead to an increase in total water demand by 5.7%, equivalent to an increase in per capita daily water demand by 19.83 L, as compared with normal summer. Furthermore, significant increases in water demand were found during morning and evening peak hours, which caused the failure of another 13 percentage points nodes of the WDS to meet the pressure requirement of 28 m.

Key words: High temperature extremes, Climate analogy, Water demand, End use modeling, Water distribution systems (WDSs)

曹文静,孙傅,刘益宏,曾思育. 极端高温事件对城市用水量和供水管网系统的影响[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2018, 14(5): 485-494.

Wen-Jing CAO,Fu SUN,Yi-Hong LIU,Si-Yu ZENG. Impact assessment of high temperature extremes on urban water demand and water distribution systems[J]. Climate Change Research, 2018, 14(5): 485-494.

图/表 9

图1 研究技术路线

Fig. 1 Research methodology

图2 研究区域供水管网系统概化图

Fig. 2 Conceptualization of the water distribution system of the case study area

Table 1 Parameters for estimating cooling water demand of air conditioning in buildings

Table 2 Temperature factor (K)

图3 北京和深圳居民家庭的洗浴和洗衣频率

Fig. 3 Shower and laundry frequencies of households in Beijing and Shenzhen City

图4 日用水量模拟结果累计滑动平均值

Fig. 4 Cumulative moving averages of simulation results of daily water demand

图5 极端高温事件下日用水量增量来源

Fig. 5 Contribution of different end uses to the water demand increased by high temperature extremes

图6 日用水量的24 h变化过程

Fig. 6 Diurnal variations of daily water demand

图7 供水管网系统水头低于28 m节点所占比例

Fig. 7 Percentages of nodes in the water distribution systems with a water head less than 28 m

参考文献

[1]	《第三次气候变化国家评估报告》编写委员会. 第三次气候变化国家评估报告[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2015
[2]	王海亮 .高温致北京用水量猛增, 城区日供水破百年纪录[EB/OL]. 2014 [ 2017- 12- 13].
[3]	上海市供水管理处.申城遭遇持续高温, 供水服务平稳有序[EB/OL]. 2016 [ 2017- 11- 29].
[4]	Vanham D, Fleischhacker E, Rauch E . Impact of an extreme dry and hot summer on water supply security in an alpine region[J]. Water Science & Technology, 2009,59(3):469-477
[5]	Hartley S, Harriss R C, Blanchard T . Urban water demand and climate change[J]. Natural Resources Forum, 1994,18(1):55-62
[6]	Herrington P . Climate change and the demand for water [R]. London: HMSO, 1996
[7]	Downing T E, Butterfield R E, Edmonds B , et al. Climate change and demand for water [R]. Oxford: Stockholm Environment Institute Oxford Office, 2003
[8]	Chen Z, Grasby S E, Osadetz K G , et al. Historical climate and stream flow trends and future water demand analysis in the Calgary region, Canada[J]. Water Science & Technology, 2006,53(10):1-11
[9]	向毓意, 张永勤, 刘文泉 , 等. 气候变化对长江三角洲工业和生活用水影响的统计模型[J]. 南京气象学院学报, 1999,22(S):523-528
[10]	高彦春, 丁静洁, 刘昌明 . 气候变化对华北地区水资源供需影响的模拟预测[J]. 地理科学进展, 2002,21(6):616-624
[11]	Wang X J, Zhang J Y, Shamsuddin S , et al. Impacts of climate variability and changes on domestic water use in the Yellow River Basin of China[J]. Mitigation & Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2016,22(4):1-14
[12]	Goodchild C W . Modelling the impact of climate change on domestic water demand[J]. Journal of the Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management, 2003,17(1):8-12
[13]	Breyer B, Chang H, Parandvash G H . Land-use, temperature, and single-family residential water use patterns in Portland, Oregon and Phoenix, Arizona[J]. Applied Geography, 2012,35(1-2):142-151
[14]	Ruth M, Bernier C, Jollands N , et al. Adaptation of urban water supply infrastructure to impacts from climate and socioeconomic changes: the case of Hamilton, New Zealand[J]. Water Resources Management, 2007,21(6):1031-1045
[15]	符丽云, 宋梦, 顾继光 , 等. 广州市城市供水及用水量与气候因子的关系[J]. 生态科学, 2006,25(2):147-150
[16]	张华丽, 董婕, 延军平 , 等. 西安市城市生活用水对气候变化响应分析[J]. 资源科学, 2009,31(6):1040-1045
[17]	王秀颖 . 气温变化对朝阳市用水量的影响分析[J]. 吉林水利, 2014 ( 1):39-41
[18]	Boyle T, Giurco D, Mukheibir P , et al. Intelligent metering for urban water: a review[J]. Water, 2013,5(3):1052-1081
[19]	Cominola A, Giuliani M, Piga D , et al. Benefits and challenges of using smart meters for advancing residential water demand modeling and management: a review[J]. Environmental Modelling & Software, 2015,72:198-214
[20]	Haggett P . Towards a statistical definitions of ecological range: the case of Quercus Suber[J]. Ecology, 1964,45(3):622-625
[21]	Radinovi? D . An analogue method for weather forecasting using the 500/1000 mb relative topography[J]. Monthly Weather Review, 2009,103(7):639
[22]	Glantz M H . Does history have a future? Forecasting climate change effects on fisheries by analogy[J]. Fisheries, 1990,15(6):39-44
[23]	Giles A R, Perry A H . The use of a temporal analogue to investigate the possible impact of projected global warming on the UK tourist industry[J]. Tourism Management, 1998,19(1):75-80
[24]	Hallegatte S, Hourcade J C, Ambrosi P . Using climate analogues for assessing climate change economic impacts in urban areas[J]. Climatic Change, 2007,82(1-2):47-60
[25]	Rutty M, Scott D, Johnson P , et al. Using ski industry response to climatic variability to assess climate change risk: an analogue study in Eastern Canada[J]. Tourism Management, 2017,58:196-204
[26]	Lauzon. Predicting the impact if climate change on urban water demand and distribution system[D]. Beijing: Tsinghua University, 2015
[27]	唐毅, 吴晓瑜, 曹敏 , 等. 空调系统冷却塔补水量的估算[J]. 制冷, 2014 ( 1):54-58
[28]	国家发展改革委, 科技部, 水利部,等. 中国节水技术政策大纲[EB/OL]. 2005 [ 2005- 05- 25].
[29]	韩玲 . 冷却塔设计参数与节水、节能的关系[J]. 工业用水与废水, 2008,39(2):1-4
[30]	刘益宏 . 气候变化对城市水系统的影响与适应策略评价研究[D]. 北京: 清华大学, 2017
[31]	Liu Y, Sun F, Zeng S , et al. Integrated model driven by agent-based water end-use forecasting to evaluate the performance of water and wastewater pipeline systems[J]. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 2016. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000672
[32]	Cordell D J, Robinson J E , Loh M T Y. Collecting residential end use data from primary sources: do’s and dont’s [R]. Tenerife: Efficient Use and Management of Water for Urban Supply Conference, 2003
[33]	郭乃荣 . 基于用水规律的办公建筑二次供水系统优化[D]. 天津: 天津大学, 2013
[34]	董晓杰 . 蒸发冷却空调机组耗水量的计算与测试研究[D]. 西安: 西安工程大学, 2016
[35]	海因斯, 维尔森 . 供热通风与空气调节系统设计手册: 第四版[M]. 陈超, 译. 北京: 机械工业出版社, 2007
[36]	佚名 . 2016年度中国中央空调市场总结报告[J]. 现代制造, 2017 ( 4):1-1
[37]	佚名 . 冷水机组市场分析[J]. 机电信息, 2018 ( 4):28-32
[38]	陆耀庆 . 实用供热空调设计手册(第二版) [M]. 北京: 中国建筑工业出版社, 2008
[39]	唐毅, 吴晓瑜, 曹敏 , 等. 空调系统冷却塔补水量的估算[J]. 制冷, 2014 ( 1):54-58
[40]	吕扬 . 冷却塔水损失变化规律及节水方法的研究[D]. 山东: 山东大学, 2009
[41]	中华人民共和国住房和城乡建设部. 工业循环冷却水设计规范[M]. 北京: 中国计划出版社, 2014
[42]	叶振宇, 叶素云 . 北京市工业布局优化调整的战略思考[J]. 城市, 2017 ( 3):3-9