气候变化研究进展 ›› 2017, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (4): 316-326.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.235

• 温升1.5℃: 影响与应对专栏 • 上一篇    下一篇

全球升温1.5℃时北半球多年冻土及雪水当量的响应及其变化

孔莹,王澄海   

  1. 兰州大学大气科学学院/甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,兰州 730000
  • 收稿日期:2016-12-05 修回日期:2017-04-23 出版日期:2017-07-30 发布日期:2017-07-30
  • 通讯作者: 王澄海 E-mail:wch@lzu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:

    冰冻圈变化及其影响研究-冰冻圈变化影响综合分析与适应机理研究;春季青藏高原融冻和融雪异常与全球大气环流及亚洲夏季风关系及机理的研究;高原冬、春积雪异常在冬、夏季风系统转换中的热力强迫作用;中国西北干旱区过去50余年降水变化及水分循环特征

Responses and Changes in the Permafrost and Snow Water Equivalent in the Northern Hemisphere Under A Scenario of 1.5℃ Warming

Kong Ying, Wang Chenghai   

  1. Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction of Gansu Province, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
  • Received:2016-12-05 Revised:2017-04-23 Online:2017-07-30 Published:2017-07-30

摘要:

本文基于耦合模式比较计划第5阶段(CMIP5)的17个全球气候模式,确定了1.5℃温升(相对于1861—1880年)的发生时间,预估了全球升温1.5℃时,北半球冻土和积雪的变化,并对预估结果的不确定性进行了讨论。结果表明,全球平均地表温度在3种排放情景下(RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP8.5)分别于2027、2026、2023年达到1.5℃阈值。当全球升温1.5℃,北半球多年冻土南界北移1°~3.5°,冻土退化主要发生在中西伯利亚南部。多年冻土面积在全球升温1.5℃时,在RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5排放情景下较1986—2005年分别减少约3.43×106 km2(21.12%)、3.91×106 km2(24.10%)和4.15×106 km2(25.55%);北半球超过一半以上的区域雪水当量减少,只在中西伯利亚地区略微增加;北美洲中部、欧洲西部以及俄罗斯西北部减少较显著,减少约40%以上。青藏高原多年冻土面积在RCP2.6、RCP4.5以及RCP8.5排放情景下分别减少0.15×106 km2(7.28%)、0.18×106 km2(8.74%)和0.17×106 km2(8.25%)。青藏高原冬、春季雪水当量分别减少约14.9%和13.8%。

关键词: 多年冻土, 雪水当量, 北半球, 全球变暖1.5℃

Abstract:

In this study, the period that corresponds to the thresholds of a 1.5℃ rise (relative to 1861-1880) in surface temperature is validated using a multi-model ensemble mean from 17 global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). On this basis, the changes in permafrost and snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere are investigated under a scenario in which the global surface temperature has risen by 1.5℃, and the uncertainties of the results are further discussed. The results show that the threshold of 1.5℃ warming will be reached in 2027, 2026, and 2023 under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) respectively. When the global average surface temperature rises by 1.5℃, the southern boundary of the permafrost will move 1°-3.5°northwards, particularly in the southern Central Siberian Plateau. The permafrost area will be reduced by 3.43×106 km2 (21.12%), 3.91×106 km2 (24.10%) and 4.15×106 km2 (25.55%) relative to 1986-2005 in RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, under a scenario of 1.5℃ warming. The snow water equivalent will decrease in over half of the regions in the Northern Hemisphere but increase only slightly in the Central Siberian Plateau. The snow water equivalent will decrease significantly (more than 40% relative to 1986-2005) in central North America, western Europe and northwestern Russia. The permafrost area in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau will decrease by 0.15×106 km2 (7.28%), 0.18×106 km2 (8.74%), and 0.17×106 km2 (8.25%), respectively, in RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5. The snow water equivalent in winter (DJF) and spring (MAM) over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau will decrease by 14.9% and 13.8%, respectively.

Key words: permafrost, snow water equivalent, Northern Hemisphere, global warming 1.5℃

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