利用ERA5再分析资料研究中国近海太阳能年际、季节、月尺度和不同海区的时空分布特征,评估太阳能资源丰富程度,并对太阳能资源总量进行估算。结果表明：多年平均海上太阳总辐射范围为4886~7611 MJ/m²,年均辐射为6429 MJ/m²;太阳辐射随春、夏、秋、冬季节的变化而逐渐减小,分别为1894、1827、1462、1287 MJ/m²,春季最大、冬季最小,春夏季基本持平;月均总辐射在春季5月份最大,为650 MJ/m²,在冬季12月份最小,为377 MJ/m²。从空间上来看,渤海、黄海、东海太阳总辐射相近,年均辐射分别为5625、5581、5622 MJ/m²,南海中西部和中东部年均辐射量最大,并呈现出向南北两端递减的趋势,年均辐射为6843 MJ/m²,较渤、黄、东3个海区辐射平均值高出22%。经估算,中国近海太阳能资源年总量约为14×10⁹ GWh,水深H<10、30、50 m的海域太阳能资源年总量分别约为600×10⁶、1700×10⁶、2800×10⁶ GWh,总体来说海上太阳能资源很丰富,具有巨大的开发利用价值。

Based on the ERA5 reanalysis dataset, the temporal and spatial variability characteristics of Chinese offshore solar energy （OSE） resources are analyzed at annual, seasonal and monthly scales in different sea areas. The richness level and the reserve of the OSE resources are evaluated. The results show that the annual offshore global horizontal radiation （GHR） is in the range of 4886-7611 MJ/m², and the annual mean value is 6429 MJ/m². The seasonal GHR has a decreasing trend from spring to winter with the corresponding values, 1894, 1827, 1462, 1287 MJ/m². GHR has a maximum in spring, with little difference to summer, and it has a minimum in winter. On a monthly scale, the maximum of GHR of 650 MJ/m² occurs in May and the minimum of 377 MJ/m² in December. In terms of spatial distribution, the GHR in the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea and the East Sea have similar values of 5625, 5581 and 5622 MJ/m², respectively. The South Sea's annual GHR of 6843 MJ/m² is the highest of the four, 22% higher than the average GHR of the other three. In the South Sea, the maximum occurs in the mid-east part and mid-west part, with a downward trend towards the north and south part. The annual OSE resources reserve is estimated at 14×10⁹ GWh. It's 600×10⁶, 1700×10⁶, 2800×10⁶ GWh for those sea areas when their water depth is less than 10, 30, 50 m, respectively. As a whole, OSE is abundant in the China Sea and has great value to develop and exploit.

. Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018–2020 period.

. We present a suite of nine scenarios of future emissions trajectories of\nanthropogenic sources, a key deliverable of the ScenarioMIP experiment within\nCMIP6. Integrated assessment model results for 14 different emissions species\nand 13 emissions sectors are provided for each scenario with consistent\ntransitions from the historical data used in CMIP6 to future trajectories using\nautomated harmonization before being downscaled to provide higher emissions\nsource spatial detail. We find that the scenarios span a wide range of\nend-of-century radiative forcing values, thus making this set of scenarios ideal\nfor exploring a variety of warming pathways. The set of scenarios is bounded on\nthe low end by a 1.9 W m−2 scenario, ideal for analyzing a world with\nend-of-century temperatures well below 2 ∘C, and on the high end by a 8.5 W m−2\nscenario, resulting in an increase in warming of nearly 5 ∘C over pre-industrial\nlevels. Between these two extremes, scenarios are provided such that differences\nbetween forcing outcomes provide statistically significant regional temperature\noutcomes to maximize their usefulness for downstream experiments within CMIP6.\nA wide range of scenario data products are provided for the CMIP6 scientific\ncommunity including global, regional, and gridded emissions datasets.

. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 ∘C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 ∘C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 ∘C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 ∘C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.