全球气候变化问题虽然还存在某些不确定性，但已得到广泛认同。对气候条件颇为敏感的农业将受影响，主要效应可概括为：①农业地理限制的变动；②作物产量的变化；③对农业系统的冲击。中国农业对气候变化与波动尤其敏感，加之人口压力进一步加大和农业资源已很紧缺，粮食自给的能力将受到严重威胁，必须充分重视适应和调整对策的研究。变动性与不确定性是气候的固有特征，在评价全球气候变化对农业的影响时应该认识到这点。本文还提出了减少农业对气候变化脆弱性的建议。

Historically,China has experienced numerous climatic changes or variations.In the last hundred years,it seems that China’s climate has become generally warmer and drier.Temperature increases have been Particularly notable in the north,with less evidence of changes in South China.Records show an obvious drying trend in eastern and northwestern China since 1910.Estimations for the future climatic change include:(1) Most Parts of China l be warmer in 1990s, cooler during 2010 2030,and warmer again after 2040.(2)The greenhouse warming would strengthen the warmer period,hence the average temperature will ne in the next century,about 2℃ higher during the warmest period than that at present.In the warming process,however,there would be fluctuations in a temporal scale of 20 30years and with a extent of 0.5 1.0℃.(3)The precipitation will decrease in the east and increase in the west.China’s agricultural vulnerability to climatic change is amplified by the high degree of dependeuce on a diminishing agricultural resources base.DEspite its vast size.China is poor in agricultural resources per capita,especially cropland and water resources.On the other hand,the population will increase.So the cropland per capita will be even less.Furthermore,the productivity of cropland is hindered by water shortages.This moisture constraint on food prduction is likely to be aggravated by climate change.Investment and technology are important in adapting to climatic change.However,China’s prospects for investment and technological development in agriculture are relatively modest.There fore,the Capital put into agriculture is limited.With huge rural populations but relatively scarce scientists and technicians and with inadequate equipment in agriculture, China has very limited prospects for technological adaptation to climatic change.Most researchers agree that global climate change would impact greatly on Chinese agriculture,whatever the regional climate change may be,because Chinese agriculture is already sensitive to climate-related conditions.At least,the followings will occur:(1) A loss at least 5% of overall agricultural production as aresult of warming,because of increased evaporation.wind erosion of soil,drought,and increased frequency of typhoons.(2) Several forest species face serious losses and some forest areas will be converted to steppe,covered by non-productive hot or warm-natured shrubs and grasses.(3) Significant damage to coastal areas from even a moderate sea level rise would occur,with extensive flooding and destruction of existing salterns farm-land and fishery farms,that large food sources for coastal China.In regard to deltas,where the most productive land is found and the densest population and the richest infrastructure and settlement in China are located,half of the Zhujiang River-Delta,abut 3500 square kilometers,might be inundated,and wide scale flooding is projected for more developed areas of the Changjiang River and Huanghe River deltas.Thus the food production in China will be challenged greatly and this will happen at a time when Chinese population and living standards are increasing greatly.The future national security of food sufficiency would be in more uncertainty.The feasibility of production may shrink,the flexibility of resource-use would be less,and the vulnerability would be increased.Concerns over potential agricultural impacts of clmatic change have promoted consideration of adsptations.The question of adaptation has been approached in two ways. First,It is likely that farmers and rural communities,when faced with changed climatic conditions,will adjust their practices.Thus,any estimate of agricultural implications of changes in climate needs to consider possible "spontaneous" adaptive strategies,and the prospects for their adoption.Second.in the face of crop losses or new production opportunities associated with climatic change,public authorities may promote adjustments in the nature and organization of agricultural production,in order to minimize climate-related losses and to realize potential be

气候变化对农业生产的影响和适应一直是学界关注的重点。但是,由于气候模式输出、排放情景、尺度转换、模型参数化等研究过程中存在的不确定性,往往导致研究结果也存在较大的不确定性。为减少研究结果的不确定性,本研究综合了IPCC 四个排放情景(A1FI、A2、B1、B2) 以及5 个全球气候模式(HadCM3, PCM, CGCM2, CSIRO2, ECHAM4) 的输出结果,基于英国CRU 气候中心的20 个未来情景数据库,生成全球平均温度升高1℃(GMT+1D)、2℃ (GMT+2D)、3℃ (GMT+3D) 下研究站点的气候日值中值情景数据,利用过程模型CERES-Wheat 和概率预测方法研究CO₂肥效作用和GMT+1D、GMT+2D、GMT+3D对我国小麦主产区小麦生物量的影响。研究结果表明:CO₂肥效作用可以补偿由于温度升高而造成的小麦生物量减产且补偿作用随着温度的升高而增加。当有CO₂肥效作用时,灌溉小麦和雨养小麦生物量均增加,且随着温度的升高生物量的增长程度增大,相同情景下,雨养小麦生物量的增高概率大于灌溉小麦。当不考虑CO₂肥效作用时,灌溉小麦和雨养小麦生物量均降低,且灌溉小麦生物量减产的概率大于雨养小麦减产概率。

Impacts of climate change on agriculture and adaptation are of key concern of scentific research. However, vast uncertainties exist among the global climate models (GCMs)output, emission scenarios, scale transformations, crop model parameteration-simulated outputs. In this study, a probabilistic approach is used to reduce the uncertainties, from 20 climate scenarios output (including four emissions scenarios of A1FI, A2, B1 and B2, and five GCMS of HadCM3, PCM, CGCM2, CSIRO2 and ECHAM4) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Data Distribution Centre. We adapt the median values of projected changes in daily mean climate variables for representative stations and drive the CERES (Crop Environment Resource Synthesis)-Wheat model to simulate wheat biomass under baseline condition and global warming scenarios of global mean temperature (GMT) increase of 1 ℃ (GMT+1D), 2 ℃ (GMT+2D) and 3 ℃ (GMT+3D), with and without consideration of CO₂ fertilization effects, respectively. Our study results show that elevated CO₂ concentration generally compensate for the negative effects of warming temperatures on wheat biomass and the positive effects of elevated CO₂ concentration on wheat biomass increase with warming temperatures. There is a high probability of increasing wheat biomass under higher temperature scenarios in consideration for CO₂ fertilization effect and rain-fed wheat biomass increase are higher than rain-fed wheat biomass under the same temperature rising scenarios. Due to increase in temperature, projected wheat biomass for GMT + 1D, GMT+2D and GMT+3D would reduce without consideration of CO₂ fertilization effects and irrigated wheat biomass would reduce more than rain-fed wheat biomass under the same temperature rising scenarios.

随着全球性极端气候频发,粮食生产安全越来越受到气候变化的威胁。在此背景下,实现农业气候资源的高效持续利用意义重大。粮食主产区是粮食安全保障的核心区域,本文应用逐级订正的机制法模型测算了1980—2019年中国粮食主产区玉米、水稻、小麦三大主要粮食作物的气候生产潜力,并应用重心迁移模型分析了粮食主产区186个地级市现实作物生产水平与气候生产潜力的时空属性,在市域尺度上评估了农业气候资源利用效率。研究得出：①1980—2019年粮食主产区玉米、水稻、小麦气候生产潜力的倾向率分别为-156.80、68.82、121.92 kg/（hm²·10 a）;②玉米气候生产潜力高值区和低值区范围均缩小,水稻气候生产潜力空间结构较为稳定,小麦气候生产潜力高值区范围扩大;③主要粮食作物气候生产潜力的重心迁移距离均小于现实迁移距离,并呈同向化特征;④黄淮海农业区、东北农业区、西南农业区等地主要粮食作物气候资源利用率较高,长江中下游农业区等地气候资源利用率较低。对此,应调整粮食生产重心,缓解气候条件较差地区的粮食生产压力,挖掘气候资源丰富地区的气候生产潜力,全面提高粮食主产区气候资源利用效率。

Food production has been increasingly threatened by the frequent occurrences of global extreme climate. Under this background, it is of great significance to realize the efficient and sustainable utilization of agricultural climatic resources. The main grain production areas in China are a core region for food security of the country. This study empirically calculated maize, rice, and wheat crop climatic potential productivities in the main grain production areas of China from 1980 to 2019 by using step-correcting mechanism model, and analyzed the spatial and temporal dynamics of actual production level and climatic potential productivity in 186 cities in these areas by using a gravity center shift model. It also comprehensively assessed agricultural climatic resources utilization efficiency at the city scale. Important results are as follows: (1) Tendency rate of maize, rice, and wheat crop climatic potential productivity in the main grain production areas of China from 1980 to 2019 was -156.80 kg/(hm2·10 a), 68.82 kg/(hm2·10 a), and 121.92 kg/(hm2·10 a) respectively. (2) Spatial change of climatic potential productivity showed three characteristics higher and lower maize climatic potential productivity areas both narrowed; spatial structure of rice climatic potential productivity basically remained unchanged; and higher wheat climatic potential productivity area enlarged. (3) Gravity centers of actual production level and climatic potential productivity changed in the same direction and the distance of migration of climatic potential productivity gravity center was shorter than that of actual production level. (4) Agricultural climatic resources utilization efficiency was higher in the agricultural areas of the North China Plain, Northeast China, and Southwest China, and agricultural climatic resources utilization efficiency was lower in the agricultural area of the Lower Yangtze Region. Therefore, it is necessary to adjust the focus of grain production. The utilization efficiency of climatic resources in the main grain producing areas can be comprehensively improved by alleviating the pressure of grain production in areas with poor climatic conditions, and tapping the climatic potential productivity of areas with rich climatic resources.

以东北地区喜温作物和喜凉作物的潜在种植区为研究区域，基于研究区域内65个气象台站1961—2010年地面气象观测数据，结合作物生育期资料，应用作物产量潜力逐级订正法，分析不同作物各级产量潜力时空分布特征，明确作物各级产量潜力受气候资源限制程度，比较气候资源利用效率差异.结果表明： 1961—2010年，东北三省6种作物（玉米、水稻、春小麦、高粱、谷子和大豆）的光温产量潜力呈明显的西高东低的空间分布特征，作物气候产量潜力除春小麦外其他作物均呈现南高北低的空间分布规律.6种作物受温度限制的产量潜力损失率呈东高西低的空间分布特征，大豆受温度限制引起的产量潜力损失率最高，平均为51%，其他作物为33%～41%；因降水制约引起的潜力损失率分布有明显的区域性差异，在松嫩平原和长白山区各有一个高值区，春小麦因降水亏缺引起的产量潜力损失率最高，平均为50%，其他4种雨养作物集中在8%～10%.东北三省各作物生长季内光能利用效率在0.9%～2.7%，其中玉米>高粱>水稻>谷子>春小麦>大豆；雨养条件下，玉米、高粱、春小麦、谷子和大豆各作物的降水利用效率在8～35 kg·hm^-2·mm^-1，其中玉米>高粱>春小麦>谷子>大豆.在光能利用效率和降水利用效率均较低的长白山区和小兴安岭南部地区，可采取合理密植、选择适宜品种、适时施肥、蓄水保墒耕作以及优化作物布局等措施提高资源利用效率.

Potential agricultural productivity has an important and far-reaching impact on re-gional agricultural development and agriculture industrialization investment and distribution. However, previous researches paid more attention to exploring the potential agricultural productivity in some regions of China, but the temporal and spatial variation of regional potential agricultural productivity in China have yet to receive the attention they deserve. Furthermore, more importantly, the study regarding the impact of climate change on the potential agricultural productivity and the spatial pattern of Chinese agricultural development are relatively small in China. Therefore, in allusion to the problems mentioned above, based on the GIS method, this paper analyzes the temporal and spatial characteristics of regional potential agricultural productivity of China since 1980s, and discusses the impact of climate change on potential agricultural productivity and food production in China between 2041 and 2060. Results mainly show that the regional potential agricultural productivity in southeastern China is higher than that of other parts of China between 1961 and 2012, and the lowest potential agricultural productivity is found in northwestern China. However, the averaged potential agricultural productivity is less than 7500 kg/hm; 2 in west regions of the HU-line in China. At the same time, spatial distribution of the averaged potential agricultural productivity in China between 1961 and 2012 clearly presents the characteristics of latitude zonality. In addition, by comparing two periods of 1961-1980 and 1981-2012, the decline of the potential agricultural productivity is mainly found in areas east of the HU-line, and the largest declines are found in Sichuan Basin and in the middle of North China Plain, falling by more than 4%. Notably, however, the biggest contributing factor leading to reduce of potential agricultural productivity in these regions is the availability coefficient of water. Moreover, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the south of North China Plain are characterized by increasing potential agricultural productivity. Finally, the simulated results suggest that the decline in the potential agricultural productivity of China between 2041 and 2060 can be mainly found in the area south of the Yangtze River and in the middle of Qinghai under the context of global climate change, where Sichuan Basin, southern and central Hubei would be the most declined regions in potential agricultural productivity, which means that future climate change may have a significant negative effect on food production in these regions.

为研究西藏主要农区青稞的干旱时空变化特征,笔者从干旱灾害的致灾因子危险性、承灾体易损性、灾损脆弱性、防灾减灾能力等4个风险因子考虑,采用专家打分法和熵权法确定各因素权重,构建干旱灾害风险综合评估模型,并进行干旱灾害时空格局分析。结果表明：干旱灾害综合风险整体呈现中间低、两边高的态势,高风险区分布比较分散,次高风险区多集中在研究区的边缘地带,中等风险区以左斜H型分布在拉萨、山南、林芝市部分区域,而次低和低风险区零星分布在加查、索县、比如、林芝等站;且干旱灾害风险较高年份出现在1999、2005、2006、2007、2009、2010、2012、2014、2015年。西藏主要农区青稞各个干旱风险因子的分布具有明显的区域差别和一定的连片性,研究区和分区的干旱趋势随年份递增而加重。

To study the spatiotemporal changes of drought of barley in the main agricultural areas of Tibet, the authors took four risk factors, including the danger of drought disaster, the vulnerability of disaster victims, the vulnerability of disaster, and the ability to prevent and mitigate disaster, and adopted the expert score method and entropy weight method, to determine the weight of each factor to construct a comprehensive assessment model for drought risk and analyze the spatial and temporal pattern of drought disaster. The results showed that: the overall risk of drought disasters was generally low in the middle and high on both sides. The distribution of high-risk areas was relatively scattered. The sub-high-risk areas were mostly concentrated in the marginal zones of the study area. The middle-risk areas were distributed with left-sloping H-shape in parts of Lhasa, Shannan, and Linzhi, while the sub-low-risk and low-risk areas were scattered in Jiacha, Suoxian, and Linzhi stations; and the years with higher risk of drought disaster appeared in 1999, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2014, and 2015. The distribution of drought risk factors for barley in major agricultural areas in Tibet has obvious regional differences and a certain degree of continuity, and the drought trend in the study area and subdivision increases with each year.

<p class="18"> Efficient utilization of massive heterogeneous data is <span>the</span>&nbsp;key factor to enhance the intelligence of agricultural disaster management. <span>Therefore, it is important to explore techniques for constructing multi-source heterogeneous agricultural meteorological disaster knowledge graphs for dynamic monitoring of agricultural meteorological disasters and intelligent management decision making. </span>This paper analyze<span>d</span>&nbsp;<span>the data sources, types, and characteristics required for knowledge graph construction in the agricultural meteorological disaster domain through literature studies and proposed a framework for knowledge graph construction that combined top-down and bottom-up approaches.</span>&nbsp;The paper also examine<span>d</span>&nbsp;key <span>techniques </span>and the current application status of knowledge graph construction from the perspective of schema layer construction, entity extraction, relation&nbsp;extraction, and knowledge fusion. <span>In addition</span>, it explore<span>d</span>&nbsp;the applications of agricultural meteorological disaster knowledge graphs in the fields of monitoring and early warning, risk assessment, intelligent service, and decision support. It summarize<span>d</span>&nbsp;the challenges of constructing agricultural meteorological disaster knowledge graphs and discusse<span>d</span>&nbsp;the future development directions. Integrating information from the different modalities <span>could</span>&nbsp;make knowledge graph more comprehensive and accurate in describing and expressing the knowledge and information in the field of agricultural meteorological disasters, which <span>could</span>&nbsp;help to mitigate the losses caused by agricultural meteorological disasters and improve the accuracy and efficiency of decision-making. In the future, agricultural meteorological disaster knowledge graph will be constructed <span>b</span>y incorporating large language models, advanced knowledge extraction methods to achieve complex entity and relationship extraction, and multi&nbsp;modal data. <span>Further research is needed to advance the technical study of agricultural meteorological disaster knowledge graph.</span></p>

Due to the vulnerability of agro-ecosystems, climate change poses great challenges to the sustainable provision of agro-ecosystem services. Previous studies have analyzed the impacts of climate change on agroecosystems. However, integrative studies about the influences of climate change on agro-ecosystem services and relevant adaptation actions are still rare. In this paper, we reviewed the impact mechanisms of climate change on crop yield, stability of regulating services, and supply of cultural services, as well as the current adaptation measures from the perspective of agricultural landscape diversity. We proposed to deepen research on the comprehensive impacts of climate change on multiple ecosystem services, explore the adaptation mechanisms of agro-ecosystems to climate change, strengthen studies of model simulation, and strengthen the connection between adaptation measures and government decision-making. This review provides scientific evidence for national agricultural policy-making and action implementation on climate change in China.

Air pollution and climate change are tightly interconnected and jointly affect field crop production and agroecosystem health. Although our understanding of the individual and combined impacts of air pollution and climate change factors is improving, the adaptation of crop production to concurrent air pollution and climate change remains challenging to resolve. Here we evaluate recent advances in the adaptation of crop production to climate change and air pollution at the plant, field and ecosystem scales. The main approaches at the plant level include the integration of genetic variation, molecular breeding and phenotyping. Field-level techniques include optimizing cultivation practices, promoting mixed cropping and diversification, and applying technologies such as antiozonants, nanotechnology and robot-assisted farming. Plant- and field-level techniques would be further facilitated by enhancing soil resilience, incorporating precision agriculture and modifying the hydrology and microclimate of agricultural landscapes at the ecosystem level. Strategies and opportunities for crop production under climate change and air pollution are discussed.© 2023. Springer Nature Limited.

Once climate change brings various stresses and disturbances on the receptor system, the receptor system will transfer these stresses and disturbances to other systems through its connection with them, resulting in the continuous extension of climate change effects in time and space, forming a complex climate change impact chain. At present, studies on the impacts of climate change mostly focus on the direct impacts, while the indirect impacts are rarely considered. The incomplete understanding of the impact transmission of climate change is one of the main constraints in addressing climate change. It is of great significance to explore the formation mechanism of the impact chain of climate change. This research analyzed the characteristics of climate change impacts, explored the formation mechanism of climate change impact chains, defined the connotation and classification of climate change impact chains, clarified the impact levels of climate change, and proposed ways to cope with climate change impact chains. The results showed that the impacts of climate change were extensive, different, persistent, transferable, transformable, and sometime sudden. When climate change acted on the direct receptors, the impacts of climate change would be transmitted along the food chain in the ecosystem, along the industrial chain in the economic system, and along the social relationship chain in the social system. The transmission of impact chain took the form of material flow, energy flow and information flow. The impacts of climate change always rose from low to high levels, along changes in resource endowments to natural production, economic production systems and social systems. It is believed that the effective control or cutting off of the transmission of adverse impacts of climate change can effectively reduce the impact risks and losses of climate change. The impact chain of climate change and its formation mechanism provide ideas and approaches for people to deal with climate change comprehensively.

适应性研究旨在通过主体对外部环境变化的调整,以削减其负面影响并改善适应能力,是实现人地系统可持续发展的重要途径。鉴于目前对适应性理论体系缺乏统一认识和系统梳理,论文通过对国内外人地系统适应性研究文献总结,从概念内涵、理论框架和方法对适应性研究进展进行了总结,并提出了适应性研究的科学范式。研究发现：① 学术界对适应性概念的理解并未达成科学共识,阻碍了通用的适应性研究理论体系的构建。② 现有适应性分析框架多是基于全球变化领域理论框架基础的延伸和修订。③ 适应性研究缺乏具有代表性的方法,以借用脆弱性、恢复力评估方法和指标体系为主。因此,统一的适应性概念和理论体系的构建亟需加强,而国外既有积累的理论经验并不通用,中国化的适应性分析框架、方法是未来的重要研究方向。同时,应强化人类社会和自然环境“综合”的人地系统适应性研究,注重多尺度结合的适应性动态分析。

The purpose of adaptation research is to reduce the negative effects of external environment and improve adaptation through the adjustment of the subject to the changes of the external environment, which is an important way to realize the sustainable development of human-environment systems. In view of the lack of a unified understanding and systematic review of the adaptation theories, this article summarized the progress of research on adaptation from the concepts, theoretical frameworks, and methods by examining the literature on adaptation of human-environment systems in China and internationally, and put forward a scientific paradigm of adaptation research. The findings are as follows: 1) There is no scientific consensus on the concept of adaptation in academia, which hinders the construction of a general theoretical system of adaptation research. 2) The existing analytical frameworks of adaptation are mostly based on the extension and revision of the theoretical framework in the field of global change. 3) There is no representative method in adaptation research, which mainly uses vulnerability and resilience assessment methods and index systems. Therefore, the construction of a unified concept and theoretical system of adaptation needs to be strengthened. The existing theoretical research in other countries may not be universally applicable, and an analytical framework and method of adaptation research specifically useful in China should be an important research direction in the future. Simultaneously, it is necessary to strengthen the research on integrated adaptation of human-environment systems considering both human society and the natural environment, and pay attention to the dynamic analysis of adaptation with a combination of multiple scales.