Abstract:

In February 2025, the 62nd session of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approved the chapter outline of the Working Group I (WGI) contribution to the IPCC Seventh Assessment Report (AR7), laying the foundation for the subsequent drafting of AR7. The main report includes four sections: framework overview, current status and trends, future changes, and information supporting adaptation, organized into ten chapters. This paper briefly introduces the key content and assessments in three major areas of focus for AR7 WGI: “Current Status and Trends” (Chapters 2-4) assesses large-scale climate system changes, regional climate extremes, and advances in Earth system processes (e.g., biogeochemical cycles, energy/water fluxes); “Future Changes” (Chapters 5-8) introduces first-ever standalone chapters on emission scenarios/global temperature projections and Earth system tipping points, alongside global/regional climate projections; “Information Supporting Adaptation” (Chapters 9-10) evaluates Earth system responses under net-zero/overshoot pathways and integrates climate services with Indigenous knowledge for policy applications. Compared to the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), the AR7 WGI chapter outline presents three new features: (1) a significant reduction in length, especially regarding the understanding of Earth system processes through consolidating AR6’s five process-oriented chapters into one unified chapter (Chapter 4) to spotlight post-AR6 breakthroughs; (2) a heightened focus on the relationship between emission scenarios and future global warming, Earth system tipping points, low probability-high impact events, and critical thresholds; and (3) a stronger emphasis on evaluating information to support adaptation, including the assessment of Earth system responses to climate interventions (including overshoot pathways) and cross-WG coordination. Based on insights from the WGI chapter outline, this paper discusses five critical research areas that need strengthening in China: developing future emission scenarios independent of the current Western narratives, innovating methodologies and data by using km-scale storm-resolving models and AI in regional climate change research, accelerating Earth system model development with full carbon cycle representation for emission-driven climate projections, deepening foundational research on climate stability, reversibility, and tipping points, as well as assessing impact of climate interventions.

Key words: IPCC, Seventh Assessment Report (AR7), Working Group I chapter outline, Climate status, Future changes, Adaptation information