Ensemble projection of changes in the ecosystem exposure to heatwaves over mid-high latitude Asia

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.023

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on daily maximum temperature, monthly leaf area index (LAI), gross primary productivity (GPP), and net primary productivity (NPP) data from 8 CMIP6 models, the changes in heatwave days (HWD) and the ecosystem exposure to HWD were projected over mid-high latitude Asia under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The ensemble projection result indicates an increase in HWD across the mid-high latitude Asian region, with larger increase under higher emission scenario. As the HWD increases, the exposure of LAI, GPP, and NPP to HWD is also projected to increase over mid-high latitude Asia. The largest increase is anticipated under SSP5-8.5. Compared to the reference period (1995-2014), the LAI, GPP, and NPP exposure tends to increase by 12.1 times, 14.9 times, and 14.3 times by the end of the 21st century, respectively. The projected increases are particularly pronounced in the regions such as the Kamchatka Peninsula, southern Central Asia, Xinjiang in China, South Korea, and Japan. In terms of factors influencing the ecosystem exposure, the climate factor is the most dominant contributor, followed by the nonlinear interaction factor, while the contribution from the ecological factor is minimal. With increased greenhouse gas emissions, the contribution of both the climate factor and the ecological factor gradually weakens from the near term to the end of the 21st century. In contrast, the influence of the nonlinear factor gradually strengthens. Consequently, the impact of heatwaves on the terrestrial ecosystem over mid-high latitude Asia will increasingly reflect the combined effects of climatic and ecological interactions.

Key words: Heatwaves, Ecosystem exposure, Mid-high latitude Asia, SSP scenario, Multi-model ensemble projection

SUN Xiao-Ling, XIE Wen-Xin, ZHOU Bo-Tao. Ensemble projection of changes in the ecosystem exposure to heatwaves over mid-high latitude Asia[J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(5): 659-670.

Figures/Tables 12

Table 1 Basic information of 8 CMIP6 models used

Fig. 1 Schematic diagram of the study area

Fig. 2 Climatological distribution of observed (a) and MME simulated (b) HWD during 1995-2014

Fig. 3 Taylor diagram of CMIP6 models referring the climatological distribution of annual mean HWD over mid-high latitude Asia during 1995-2014

Fig. 4 Time series of observed and MME simulated annual mean percentage of HWD anomaly over mid-high latitude Asia during 1995-2014

Fig. 5 Temporal changes in HWD averaged over mid-high latitude Asian under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 (relative to 1995-2014, the same below). (Time series are smoothed with a 20-year running mean filter, and shadings represent the ranges of two standard deviations of model simulations)

Fig. 6 Spatial distribution of the MME projected changes in HWD during 2021-2040, 2041-2060, and 2081-2100 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. (Areas with the changes above the 0.05 significance level are dotted)

Fig. 7 Temporal changes in percentage anomalies of LAI exposure (a), GPP exposure (b), and NPP exposure (c) averaged over mid-high latitude Asia under three scenarios. (Time series are smoothed with a 20-year running mean filter, and shadings represent the ranges of two standard deviations of model simulations)

Fig. 8 Spatial distribution of the MME projected percentage anomalies of LAI exposure, GPP exposure, and NPP exposure during 2021-2040, 2041-2060, and 2081-2100 under SSP1-2.6. (Areas with the changes above the 0.05 significance level are dotted)

Fig. 9 Same as Fig. 8, but under SSP2-4.5

Fig. 10 Same as Fig. 8, but under SSP5-8.5

Fig. 11 Contribution of climate factor, nonlinear interaction, and ecological factor to projected changes in LAI exposure, GPP exposure, and NPP exposure averaged over mid-high latitude Asia during 2021-2040, 2041-2060, and 2081-2100 under three scenarios

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