Climate Change Research

   

Analysis of the outcomes of adaptation-related negotiations at the COP30 Climate Conference in Belém and implications for China’s future climate response strategies

LIU Shuo1, 2, WANG Bo-Wei3, LI Yu-E1, 2, GAO Qing-Zhu1, 2, WANG Bin1, 2   

  1. 1 Institute of Environmental and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;
    2 Key Laboratory of Agro-Environment and Climate Change, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100081, China;
    3 National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation, Beijing 100035, China
  • Received:2025-12-11 Revised:2025-12-24 Online:2026-01-07 Published:2026-01-07
  • Contact: Li Yue

Abstract: Extreme events driven by climate change pose significant threats to global economic and social development. Developing countries confront heightened vulnerabilities due to the historical emissions of developed nations and their own limited adaptive capacity, while delayed fulfillment of “Common but Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR)” by developed countries has further intensified the complexities of international climate governance. The Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), established under the 2015 Paris Agreement, has long faced negotiation stagnation owing to ambiguous objectives and the absence of a robust assessment framework. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of key negotiation issues, evolving positions of Parties, and milestone outcomes concerning the GGA from COP26 to COP30, with particular emphasis on the “Belém Adaptation Indicators” adopted at COP30. The indicator framework spans seven priority areas, including water resources and food security, and encompasses four stages of assessment on climate change impact, vulnerability, and risk, planning, implementation, and monitoring, evaluation and learning. By streamlining an almost 500 proposed indicators before COP30 to 59 by the end of COP30, the framework emphasizes voluntary application and non-prescriptive guidance. It also establishes the “Belém–Addis Adaptation Vision” and the “Baku Adaptation Roadmap (Phase I)”, which clarify the financial and technical support obligations of developed countries. Throughout the process, developing countries upheld the principle of CBDR, advocating for the exclusion of data from private institutions, mitigation-related indicators, and content implicating national sovereignty, thereby ensuring that the framework remains focused on essential adaptation needs. The COP30 decision further sets an ambitious target to triple international adaptation finance by 2035 and launches a pilot mechanism on the 59 indicators for testing and feedback from multiple scales, in particular national level. This paper also examines the challenges confronting China’s domestic adaptation efforts and its engagement in international multilateral processes, underscoring the importance of leveraging this framework to strengthen national data and statistical systems, and taking into account international reporting needs, advance multilateral coordination mechanisms, and contribute Chinese approaches to building climate resilience within global climate governance.

Key words: Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), Belén Adaptation Indicators, Common but Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR), Adaptation finance, Path selection

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