关键词: CO₂减排, 情景分析, 经济, 中国

Abstract: A matured regional dynamic integrated model of climate and the economy (DICE/RICE) was introduced and used to assess the effect of CO₂ mitigation on China's economy. Seven CO₂ emission scenarios during 2000-2050 were designed by adjusting the control rate of CO₂ emission of the model. The CO₂ emissions, economic development and consumption utility of China were assessed on the premise that the total concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere is constant. The results show that a number of CO₂ alternative policies could all ensure that the increment of global average surface temperature will be below the threshold value of 3.2℃, thus effectively protecting the safety of global climate in future 200 years. When China's CO₂ emissions in 2050 decreases from 253% to 50% of the emission quantity in 2000, the decline amplitude of China's GDP will increase from 0.33% to 12.22% in comparison with the scenario without control of CO₂ emission, correspondingly, the decline amplitude of consumption function level will increase from 0.00422 to 0.09946; both the two decline amplitudes distinctively increase with the increase amplitude in the reduction of CO₂ emission. Therefore, China needs to put the additional investment of 62.196-1378.473 billion dollars for the reduction of CO₂ emission, which account for 0.19%-10.5% of the GDP value, respectively. Comprehensive consideration suggests that it is reasonable that China should choose the scenario that China's CO₂ emission in 2050 is 2.53 times of that in 2000.

Key words: CO₂ mitigation, scenario analysis, economy, China