中国气候政策不确定性指数：构建、分析与应用前景

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.034

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为确保“双碳”目标如期实现，中国政府加快了气候相关政策的制定和实施，可能导致气候政策不确定性升高，进而对社会经济产生影响，因此准确度量气候政策不确定性具有重要意义。基于2008—2023年中国13家主流新闻报纸的气候政策不确定性关键词频率，采用文本挖掘技术，构建了中国气候政策不确定性指数，并通过时间区间替换、国内外对比来验证指数的稳健性和有效性。结果发现：中国应对气候变化的政策可以划分为起步期、发展期、夯实期和深化期四个阶段，中国气候政策不确定性指数可以准确识别每个阶段的发展历程。与国外指数相比，中国气候政策不确定性指数不仅可以反映与中国相关的重大国际气候政策事件，也可以体现中国独特的气候政策变化和发展特点。该指数未来可以为政府部门制定气候政策、企业应对气候变化、金融机构管理气候风险、投资者提高投资效率等方面提供借鉴和参考。

关键词: 中国, 气候政策, 不确定性指数, 文本分析

Abstract:

To ensure the timely achievement of the “dual carbon” goal, China’s government has accelerated the formulation and implementation of climate related policies. Since the climate policy uncertainty (CPU) has a significant impact on the social economy, an accurate measurement of CPU is of great significance. Based on keywords frequency of climate policy uncertainty from 13 newspapers in China from 2008 to 2023, text mining technique was adopted to construct the China CPU (CCPU) index, whose robustness and effectiveness were tested through time interval replacement and comparisons of domestic and international indices. The results show that China’s policies to address climate change can be divided into four stages: the initial stage, the development stage, the consolidation stage, and the deepening stage. CCPU can accurately reflect the development process of each stage. Compared with the US CPU, CCPU index can reflect not only major global climate policy events related to China, but also China’s unique climate policy changes and development characteristics. This index can provide reference and guidance to government in formulating climate policies, to businesses in adapting climate change, to financial institutions in managing climate risks, and to investors in improving investment efficiency in the future.

Key words: China, Climate policy, Uncertainty index, Text mining

陈国荣, 王苏萨, 邓晶, 侯浩一, 尹书琪, 冯玮, 曲浩泽. 中国气候政策不确定性指数：构建、分析与应用前景[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2024, 20(3): 361-372.

CHEN Guo-Rong, WANG Su-Sa, DENG Jing, HOU Hao-Yi, YIN Shu-Qi, FENG Wei, QU Hao-Ze. China climate policy uncertainty index: construction, analysis and application prospects[J]. Climate Change Research, 2024, 20(3): 361-372.

图/表 5

图1 气候政策不确定性的影响路径[28-29]

Fig. 1 Influence path of climate policy uncertainty[28-29]

图2 《中国应对气候变化的政策与行动》白皮书词云图

Fig. 2 Word cloud of the white book “China’s Policies and Actions for Addressing Climate Change”

表1 中国气候政策不确定性关键词词库

Table 1 Three types of keywords in China climate policy uncertainty (CCPU) index

图3 CCPU指数及其四个发展阶段

Fig. 3 CCPU index with four development stages

图4 CCPU指数有效性分析

Fig. 4 Efficiency test of CCPU index

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