关键词: “双碳”时期, 陆上风能, 装机潜力, 发电量潜力, 规划装机容量

Abstract: Clarifying the potential of onshore wind power is crucial for achieving the “Dual Carbon” goals and formulating precise wind energy development strategies. Based on daily wind speed data from over 2400 observation stations and five CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) models under seven climate scenarios, the technical exploitable potential of wind power generation was evaluated by using wind turbine power curves and considering geographical constraints for suitable wind farm development zones. The spatiotemporal variations were analyzed in onshore wind speed and wind power technical potential (including onshore installed capacity potential and power generation potential) in China during the observation period (1961―2021), the “Carbon Peak” period (2026―2035), and the “Carbon Neutrality” period (2056―2065). Additionally, the spatial and temporal differences were compared between onshore wind power technical potential and planned development capacity. The key findings are as follows. (1) From 1961 to 2021, the onshore wind power installed capacity potential was 7.88 TW, with Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang accounting for 47% of the total. (2) Compared to the baseline period (1995―2014), the installed capacity potential and power generation potential during the “Carbon Peak” period are projected to decrease by 3.06% (0.79%―4.54%) and 5.12% (2.81%―7.02%), respectively. During the “Carbon Neutrality” period, these figures further decline by 5.00% (3.75%―6.47%) and 7.8% (5.95%―10.37%), with Sichuan and Beijing experiencing the most significant reductions in wind power technical potential. (3) From 2013 to 2021, the ratio of China’s actual installed wind power capacity to its potential increased from 1.5% to 5.0%, with Chongqing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Hebei accounting for over 55%. The share of actual wind power generation in total electricity consumption rose from 2.5% to 7.9%, with Inner Mongolia and Ningxia exceeding 24%. (4) During the “Dual Carbon” periods (encompassing both the “Carbon Peak” and “Carbon Neutrality” periods), China’s planned wind power installed capacity accounts for 12.99% (12.69%―13.19%) and 36.82% (36.33%―37.37%) of the total potential, respectively. In the “Carbon Peak” period, all provinces except Chongqing have sufficient potential to meet planned demand. However, in the “Carbon Neutrality” period, while most provinces in western and northeastern China can still meet planned capacity requirements, Chongqing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Shaanxi, Hebei, Guizhou, Fujian, Shanxi, and Tianjin will struggle to support their planned installations. Furthermore, China’s wind power generation potential during the “Dual Carbon” periods could meet 90.13% (88.33%―92.33%) and 36.64% (35.62%―37.37%) of the total electricity demand, respectively. Regions such as Tibet, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Xinjiang, Heilongjiang, and Gansu exceed 100% self-sufficiency, whereas Tianjin, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chongqing fall below 5%, making them reliant on external power sources. In summary, the wind power installed capacity and generation potential during the “Dual Carbon” periods are sufficient to meet planned development targets. However, significant regional disparities exist, necessitating optimization of the energy supply structure, complementary integration of multiple clean energy sources, and improvement of energy efficiency and equitable distribution.

Key words: “Dual Carbon” periods, Onshore wind energy, Installation capacity potential, Power generation potential, Planned installed capacity