“双碳”时期中国陆上风电技术潜力评估

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.069

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2026, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (1): 84-100.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.069

“双碳”时期中国陆上风电技术潜力评估

桑文文¹(), 王艳君¹(), 姜彤¹^,², 姜涵¹, 苏布达¹^,³

¹ 南京信息工程大学灾害风险管理研究院/地理科学学院，南京 210044
² 江苏第二师范学院气候风险模拟与城乡智慧治理江苏省高校重点实验室/地理科学学院，南京 210013
³ 南京信息工程大学气候系统预测与变化应对国家重点实验室，南京 210044

收稿日期:2025-03-25 修回日期:2025-06-04 出版日期:2026-01-30 发布日期:2025-11-11
通讯作者: 王艳君，女，教授，yjwang78@163.com
作者简介:桑文文，女，硕士研究生，202312100047@nuist.edu.cn
基金资助:
江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目(KYCX25_1565)

Assessment of onshore wind power technical potential in China during the “Dual Carbon” periods

SANG Wen-Wen¹(), WANG Yan-Jun¹(), JIANG Tong¹^,², JIANG Han¹, SU Bu-Da¹^,³

¹ School of Geographical Sciences/Institute for Disaster Risk Management, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
² Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Climate Risk Simulation and Urban-Rural Intelligent Governance, School of Geographical Sciences, Jiangsu Second Normal University, Nanjing 210013, China
³ The State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Response, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China

Received:2025-03-25 Revised:2025-06-04 Online:2026-01-30 Published:2025-11-11

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

明确陆上风电潜力对实现“双碳”目标和制定精准的风能资源发展策略具有重要意义。文中基于2400多个观测站点和包含7个气候情景的5个CMIP6（第六次国际耦合模式比较计划）模式逐日风速数据，结合风电机组适宜开发区的地理限制因素，利用风力发电机功率曲线评估了风能发电技术的潜力。分析了中国观测期（1961—2021年)、“碳达峰”（2026—2035年）和“碳中和”时期（2056—2065年）陆上风速与风电技术潜力（包括陆上装机潜力和发电量潜力）的时空变化特征，比较了陆上风电技术潜力与规划开发量的时空差异。研究主要发现：(1) 1961—2021年，陆上风能装机潜力为7880.36 GW，内蒙古、新疆占比47%。(2) 2013—2021年，中国风能实际装机容量占装机潜力的比重由1.5%增长至5.0%，实际风能发电量在全社会总用电量的占比从2.5%增长至7.9%。(3)相较基准期（1995—2014年)，“碳达峰”时期装机潜力和发电量潜力分别下降3.06%（0.79%~4.54%）和5.12%（2.81%~7.02%)；“碳中和”时期分别下降5.00%（3.75%~6.47%）和7.80%（5.95%~10.37%)，四川和北京风电技术潜力降幅最大。(4)“双碳”时期，中国规划风能装机容量占装机潜力的比重分别为12.99%（12.69%~13.19%）和36.82%（36.33%~37.37%)，“碳达峰”时期，除重庆市外，其他省份潜力均能满足规划需求；“碳中和”时期，中国西部和东北部地区省份的装机潜力仍可满足规划要求，而重庆、上海、江苏、陕西、河北、贵州、福建、山西和天津难以支撑其规划装机容量。此外，中国风能发电量潜力在“碳达峰”和“碳中和”时期分别满足全社会用电需求的90.13%（88.33%~92.33%）和36.64%（35.62%~37.37%)，其中，西藏、内蒙古、青海、新疆、黑龙江和甘肃的比重超过100%，天津、北京、上海和重庆不足5%，难以满足本地用电需求。总体来看，“双碳”时期的风能装机和发电量潜力能够满足规划开发量要求，但在区域分布上存在显著差异，需优化能源供应结构，实现多种清洁能源互补，促进能源高效利用和均衡分配。

关键词: “双碳”时期, 陆上风能, 装机潜力, 发电量潜力, 规划装机容量

Abstract:

Clarifying the potential of onshore wind power is crucial for achieving the “Dual Carbon” goals and formulating precise wind energy development strategies. Based on daily wind speed data from over 2400 observation stations and five CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) models under seven climate scenarios, the technical exploitable potential of wind power generation was evaluated by using wind turbine power curves and considering geographical constraints for suitable wind farm development zones. The spatiotemporal variations were analyzed in onshore wind speed and wind power technical potential (including onshore installed capacity potential and power generation potential) in China during the observation period (1961-2021), the “Carbon Peak” period (2026-2035), and the “Carbon Neutrality” period (2056-2065). Additionally, the spatial and temporal differences were compared between onshore wind power technical potential and planned development capacity. The key findings are as follows. (1) From 1961 to 2021, the onshore wind power installed capacity potential was 7.88 TW, with Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang accounting for 47% of the total. (2) From 2013 to 2021, the ratio of China’s actual installed wind power capacity to its potential increased from 1.5% to 5.0%, with Chongqing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Hebei accounting for over 55%. The share of actual wind power generation in total electricity consumption rose from 2.5% to 7.9%, with Inner Mongolia and Ningxia exceeding 24%. (3) Compared to the baseline period (1995-2014), the installed capacity potential and power generation potential during the “Carbon Peak” period are projected to decrease by 3.06% (0.79%-4.54%) and 5.12% (2.81%-7.02%), respectively. During the “Carbon Neutrality” period, these figures further decline by 5.00% (3.75%-6.47%) and 7.8% (5.95%-10.37%), with Sichuan and Beijing experiencing the most significant reductions in wind power technical potential. (4) During the “Dual Carbon” periods (encompassing both the “Carbon Peak” and “Carbon Neutrality” periods), China’s planned wind power installed capacity accounts for 12.99% (12.69%-13.19%) and 36.82% (36.33%-37.37%) of the total potential, respectively. In the “Carbon Peak” period, all provinces except Chongqing have sufficient potential to meet planned demand. However, in the “Carbon Neutrality” period, while most provinces in western and northeastern China can still meet planned capacity requirements, Chongqing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Shaanxi, Hebei, Guizhou, Fujian, Shanxi, and Tianjin will struggle to support their planned installations. Furthermore, China’s wind power generation potential during the “Dual Carbon” periods could meet 90.13% (88.33%-92.33%) and 36.64% (35.62%-37.37%) of the total electricity demand, respectively. Regions such as Tibet, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Xinjiang, Heilongjiang, and Gansu exceed 100% self-sufficiency, whereas Tianjin, Beijing, Shanghai, and Chongqing fall below 5%, making them reliant on external power sources. In summary, the wind power installed capacity and generation potential during the “Dual Carbon” periods are sufficient to meet planned development targets. However, significant regional disparities exist, necessitating optimization of the energy supply structure, complementary integration of multiple clean energy sources, and improvement of energy efficiency and equitable distribution.

Key words: “Dual Carbon” periods, Onshore wind energy, Installation capacity potential, Power generation potential, Planned installed capacity

桑文文, 王艳君, 姜彤, 姜涵, 苏布达. “双碳”时期中国陆上风电技术潜力评估[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2026, 22(1): 84-100.

SANG Wen-Wen, WANG Yan-Jun, JIANG Tong, JIANG Han, SU Bu-Da. Assessment of onshore wind power technical potential in China during the “Dual Carbon” periods[J]. Climate Change Research, 2026, 22(1): 84-100.

图/表 16

表1 CMIP6模式的空间分辨率

Table 1 Spatial resolution of CMIP6 models

图1 1961—2014年10 m高度观测与偏差订正前后CMIP6模式模拟风速时间序列(a)和空间分布（b~d）

Fig. 1 Time series (a) of wind speed simulated by CMIP6 models before and after bias correction during 1961-2014 and spatial distribution (b-d) of wind speed before bias correction and after bias correction

表2 偏差订正前后CMIP6模式模拟能力评估

Table 2 Evaluation of the simulation capability of CMIP6 models before and after bias correction

图2 标准空气密度下4种风电机型类型的功率曲线

Fig. 2 Power curves of four types of wind turbines under standard air density

表3 风电机型类型、参数和适用区域标准

Table 3 Types of wind turbines, parameters, and applicable regional standards

表4 风力发电机组选址土地利用类型利用系数

Table 4 Land use type utilization coefficients for wind turbine siting

表5 风力发电机组选址地形坡度利用系数

Table 5 Terrain slope utilization coefficients for wind turbine siting

图3 1961—2021年中国10 m高度平均风速变化趋势(a)、多年平均风速空间分布(b)和变化趋势空间分布(c)

Fig. 3 Trends in average wind speed at 10 meters height in China during 1961-2021 (a), spatial distribution of multi-year average wind speed (b), and spatial distribution of wind speed trends (c)

图4 1961—2021年中国陆上风能装机潜力的时间变化(a)和空间分布(b)

Fig. 4 Temporal variation (a) and spatial distribution (b) of China’s onshore wind power installation capacity potential from 1961 to 2021

图5 2013—2021年中国各省实际风能装机容量累计值占风能装机潜力比重(a)、实际风能发电量占用电量比重(b)

Fig. 5 The ratio of actual installed wind power capacity to wind power installation capacity potential by province (a) and the ratio of actual wind power generation to total electricity consumption by province (b) in China from 2013 to 2021

图6 基准期和“双碳”时期中国10 m高度平均风速时间序列

Fig. 6 Time series of average wind speed at 10 meters height in China during the baseline period and the “Dual Carbon” periods

图7 相较基准期，“双碳”时期中国10 m高度平均风速变化率的空间分布

Fig. 7 Spatial distribution of the change rate of average wind speed at 10 meters height in China during the “Dual Carbon” periods compared to the baseline period

表6 “双碳”时期中国陆上风能装机潜力、规划装机容量

Table 6 Onshore wind power capacity potential, planned capacity in China during the “Dual Carbon” periods

表7 “双碳”时期风能发电量潜力、预计用电需求

Table 7 Onshore wind power generation potential, projected electricity demand in China during the “Dual Carbon” periods

图8 基准期和“双碳”时期中国陆上风能装机潜力(a)、发电量潜力(b)的时间序列

Fig. 8 The time series of onshore wind power installation capacity potential (a) and onshore wind power generation potential (b) in China during the baseline period and the “Dual Carbon” period

表8 本文研究结果与其他相关研究成果比较

Table 8 Comparison of this study’s results with those of other related studies

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“双碳”时期中国陆上风电技术潜力评估

Assessment of onshore wind power technical potential in China during the “Dual Carbon” periods

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