气候变化研究进展 ›› 2025, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (2): 169-185.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.205
能量收支框架下从辐射强迫-气候反馈到气候敏感度的研究进展
于晓超1, 张华1(
), 王秋艳2, 赵树云3, 王菲4, 柳丽婷1, 刘梦婷1,5, 马馨宇1,3, 杨冬冬6, 李帅7
- 1 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室，北京 100081
2 近地面探测技术重点实验室，无锡 214035
3 中国地质大学（武汉）环境学院，武汉 430078
4 安徽省公共气象服务中心，合肥 230031
5 复旦大学大气与海洋科学系，上海 200438
6 曲阜师范大学地理与旅游学院，日照 276826
7 东华大学环境科学与工程学院，上海 201620
-
收稿日期:2024-08-01修回日期:2024-10-18出版日期:2025-03-30发布日期:2025-02-27 -
通讯作者:张华，女，研究员，huazhang@cma.gov.cn -
作者简介:于晓超，男，助理研究员 -
基金资助:国家自然基金面上和重点基金项目(42275039);国家自然基金面上和重点基金项目(U2342224);国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFA0603502);国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3701202);中国气象科学研究院科技发展基金(2024KJ021)
Advancements in the understanding of radiative forcing, climate feedback, and climate sensitivity within the energy budget framework
YU Xiao-Chao1, ZHANG Hua1(), WANG Qiu-Yan2, ZHAO Shu-Yun3, WANG Fei4, LIU Li-Ting1, LIU Meng-Ting1,5, MA Xin-Yu1,3, YANG Dong-Dong6, LI Shuai7
- 1 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
2 Science and Technology on Near-Surface Detection Laboratory, Wuxi 214035, China
3 School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430078, China
4 Anhui Public Meteorological Service Center, Hefei 230031, China
5 Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China
6 School of Geography and Tourism, Qufu Normal University, Rizhao 276826, China
7 College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Donghua University, Shanghai 201620, China
-
Received:2024-08-01Revised:2024-10-18Online:2025-03-30Published:2025-02-27
摘要：
从能量框架出发，对地球能量收支、有效辐射强迫、气候反馈和气候敏感度的相关研究做出系统的梳理。自20世纪80年代以来，地球能量收支增加0.28~0.52 W/m2，主要来源于大气顶反射太阳辐射持续减少，这是该时期全球升温的重要决定性因素。这些能量收支的改变与人为强迫及其气候影响密切相关。政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第六次评估报告（AR6）指出，1750—2019年，总的人为有效辐射强迫的最佳估计为（2.72±0.76）W/m2，引起的全球地表温度变化预计可达1.29（1.00~1.65）℃。气候反馈总体上能够抵消辐射强迫对地球系统的整体扰动，使气候状态趋于稳定。IPCC AR6给出的净反馈最佳估计结果为-1.16（-1.81~-0.51）W/(m2·℃)。为了预估未来气候变化，IPCC AR6给出了平衡态气候敏感度和瞬态气候响应的最佳估计值，分别为3.0（2.0~5.0）℃和1.8（1.2~2.4）℃。依据能量收支平衡下强迫-反馈理论框架，科学界通过量化地球能量收支及其长期变化、区分辐射强迫与气候反馈，厘清了人为和自然等外部强迫对气候变化的影响；依据气候反馈参数和气候敏感度的估算结果，可量化气候对强迫的响应幅度，实现对未来气候的合理预估。
引用本文
于晓超, 张华, 王秋艳, 赵树云, 王菲, 柳丽婷, 刘梦婷, 马馨宇, 杨冬冬, 李帅. 能量收支框架下从辐射强迫-气候反馈到气候敏感度的研究进展[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2025, 21(2): 169-185.
YU Xiao-Chao, ZHANG Hua, WANG Qiu-Yan, ZHAO Shu-Yun, WANG Fei, LIU Li-Ting, LIU Meng-Ting, MA Xin-Yu, YANG Dong-Dong, LI Shuai. Advancements in the understanding of radiative forcing, climate feedback, and climate sensitivity within the energy budget framework[J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(2): 169-185.
图1 当前全球平均能量收支示意图(a)以及不考虑云效应的等效图(b)
Fig. 1 Diagram of the current global average energy balance (a) and the equivalent diagram without considering cloud effects (b)
图1 当前全球平均能量收支示意图(a)以及不考虑云效应的等效图(b)
Fig. 1 Diagram of the current global average energy balance (a) and the equivalent diagram without considering cloud effects (b)
图2 全球平均气候反馈 注：此图改绘自IPCC AR6第7章 图7.10。圆形表示最佳估计值，箱体表示5%~95%置信区间。
Fig. 2 Global mean climate feedback
图2 全球平均气候反馈 注：此图改绘自IPCC AR6第7章 图7.10。圆形表示最佳估计值，箱体表示5%~95%置信区间。
Fig. 2 Global mean climate feedback
表1 基于多源证据的气候敏感度（ECS）估计[6]
Table 1 Estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) based on multiple lines of evidence[6]℃
 |
表1 基于多源证据的气候敏感度（ECS）估计[6]
Table 1 Estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) based on multiple lines of evidence[6]℃
| |
表2 基于多源证据的瞬态气候响应（TCR）估计[6]
Table 2 Estimates of transient climate response (TCR) based on multiple lines of evidence[6] ℃
 |
表2 基于多源证据的瞬态气候响应（TCR）估计[6]
Table 2 Estimates of transient climate response (TCR) based on multiple lines of evidence[6] ℃
| |
图3 能量收支平衡下强迫-反馈理论框架及最新进展的概念图 注：此图改绘自IPCC AR6第7章 图7.1。
Fig. 3 Diagram of the forcing-feedback framework in the context of energy balance and its latest advances
图3 能量收支平衡下强迫-反馈理论框架及最新进展的概念图 注：此图改绘自IPCC AR6第7章 图7.1。
Fig. 3 Diagram of the forcing-feedback framework in the context of energy balance and its latest advances
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