中国冬季大范围极端冷、暖日的时空变化特征

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.272

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用1961—2020年中国逐日地表气温观测资料，综合考虑其概率密度分布与空间范围，定义了全国一致冷日、一致暖日与全国反位相型冷暖日3种全国性极端冷、暖日，并分析了各自的变化特征。结果表明，中国冬季全国性极端冷、暖日共960 d。其中一致冷日358 d，一致暖日271 d，反位相型冷暖日331 d。在21世纪前，一致冷日数与累计强度随时间逐渐下降，冬季与2月的一致冷日数均在20世纪80年代出现显著突变减少；一致暖日则随时间呈上升趋势，其中只有12月的一致暖日数在70年代末突变增加。21世纪前冬季一致冷（暖）日的下降（上升）受2月的影响最大。进入21世纪后，1月一致冷日的增加使冬季一致冷日出现小幅度上升，而2月一致暖日迅速减少导致冬季一致暖日在21世纪初有小幅度下降，之后1月一致暖日的迅速增加使得冬季一致暖日继续上升。冬季、1月、2月的反位相型冷暖日的天数均在20世纪70—80年代突变减少，21世纪10年代前，冬季反位相型冷暖日主要受到2月变化的影响，之后1月的贡献更大。

关键词: 极端温度, 全国一致型, 全国反位相型, 时空变化

Abstract:

Using the daily observational dataset of the surface air temperature in China from 1961 to 2020, and considering their probability density distribution and spatial extent, three kinds of temperature extremes were defined: the spatially consistent cold days, spatially consistent warm days, and extreme days with north-south dipole temperature in China during winter. The results show that a total of 960 days of the winter temperature extremes occurred in China. Among them, there are 358 consistent cold days, 271 consistent warm days, and 331 extreme days with north-south dipole temperature. Before the 21st century, the days and intensities of the consistent cold days showed decreasing and weakening trends respectively, and the cold days of winter and February decreased abruptly in the 1980s. Meanwhile, increasing and strengthening characteristics can be seen in consistent warm days, but only consistent warm days in December increased abruptly in the late 1970s. The decline (rise) of spatially consistent cold (warm) days during this period was most affected by changes of February. After entering the 21st century, it was the variations of the spatially consistent cold and warm days in January that led to the small increase of cold days and the increase of warm days in winter. Except for December, extreme days with north-south dipole temperature in winter and other months all showed abrupt decline in the 1970s and 1980s. Before the 2010s, the decline of the extreme days with north-south dipole temperature in winter was mainly influenced by the variation in February, after then, the variation in January played a dominant role.

Key words: Temperature extremes, Spatially consistent temperature extremes, North-south dipole temperature extremes, Spatiotemporal variation

王玮, 王欢, 左志燕. 中国冬季大范围极端冷、暖日的时空变化特征[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19(4): 418-430.

WANG Wei, WANG Huan, ZUO Zhi-Yan. Characteristics of the widespread extreme cold and warm days over China in winter[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(4): 418-430.

图/表 11

表1 1961—2019年冬季各月全国性极端冷、暖日发生天数

Table 1 Frequency of extreme days in each month of winter from 1961 to 2019 d

图1 1961—2019年冬季中国发生全国一致冷日(a)、一致暖日(b)、反位相型冷暖日(c)时的地表气温距平，以及发生反位相型时地表气温距平的EOF第一模态空间分布(d) 注：斜线区域表示通过了95%信度检验的区域。

Fig. 1 Surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies when spatially consistent extreme cold days (a), warm days (b), and extreme days with north-south dipole temperature (c) occurred in the winters from 1961 to 2019 (The hatched areas indicate the confidence level exceeds 95% using a Student’s test), and the spatial distribution of the first leading EOF mode for the daily SAT anomalies when the extreme days with north-south dipole temperature occurred (d)

图2 1961—2019年全国一致冷日发生日期及强度分布

Fig. 2 Distribution of the dates and intensities of the spatially consistent extreme cold days from 1961 to 2019

图3 1961—2019年冬季(a)、12月(b)、1月(c)、2月(d)发生全国一致冷日的天数与累计强度的年代际变化及天数(e)、累计强度(f)的各月占比

Fig. 3 Decadal variations of the days and cumulative intensities of the spatially consistent extreme cold days in whole winter (a), December (b), January (c) and February (d) from 1961 to 2019, and their percentages of the days (e) and cumulative intensities (f) in winter

图4 1961—2019年冬季(a)、12月(b)、1月(c)、2月(d)发生一致冷日天数的M-K统计量曲线

Fig. 4 Mann-Kendall statistical curves of the spatially consistent extreme cold days in whole winter (a), December (b), January (c) and February (d) from 1961 to 2019. (The black dash line denotes the significance level of α=0.05)

图5 1961—2019年全国一致暖日发生日期及强度分布

Fig. 5 Distribution of dates and intensities of the spatially consistent extreme warm days from 1961 to 2019

图6 1961—2019年冬季(a)、12月(b)、1月(c)、2月(d)发生全国一致暖日的天数与累计强度的年代际变化及天数(e)、累计强度(f)的各月占比

Fig. 6 Decadal variations of the days and cumulative intensities of spatially consistent extreme warm days in whole winter (a), December (b), January (c) and February (d) from 1961 to 2019, and their percentage of days (e) and cumulative intensities (f) in winter

图7 1961—2019年冬季(a)、12月(b)、1月(c)、2月(d)发生一致暖日天数的M-K统计量曲线注：虚线为α=0.05水平临界值。

Fig. 7 Mann-Kendall statistical curves of the spatially consistent extreme warm days in whole winter (a), December (b), January (c) and February (d) from 1961 to 2019. (The black dash line denotes the significance level of α=0.05)

图8 1961—2019年全国反位相型冷暖日发生日期及强度分布图

Fig. 8 Distribution of dates and intensities of extreme days with north-south dipole temperature from 1961 to 2019

图9 1961—2019年冬季(a)、12月(b)、1月(c)、2月(d)发生全国反位相型冷暖日的天数与累计强度的年代际变化及天数(e)、累计强度(f)的各月占比

Fig. 9 Decadal variations of the days and cumulative intensities of extreme days with north-south dipole temperature in whole winter (a), December (b), January (c) and February (d) from 1961 to 2019, and their percentage of days (e) and cumulative intensities (f) in winter

图10 1961—2019年冬季(a)、12月(b)、1月(c)、2月(d)发生反位相型冷暖日天数的M-K统计量曲线注：虚线为α=0.05水平临界值。

Fig. 10 Mann-Kendall statistical curves of extreme days with north-south dipole temperature in whole winter (a), December (b), January (c) and February (d) from 1961 to 2019. (The black dash line denotes the significance level of α=0.05)

参考文献 28

[1]	IPCC. Climate change 2013: the physical science basis[M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2013: 1-30
[2]	翟盘茂, 周佰铨, 陈阳, 等. 气候变化科学方面的几个最新认知[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2021, 17 (6): 629-635.
	Zhai P M, Zhou B Q, Chen Y, et al. Several new understandings in the climate change science[J]. Climate Change Research, 2021, 17 (6): 629-635 (in Chinese)
[3]	Katz R W, Brown B G. Extreme events in a changing climate: variability is more important than averages[J]. Climatic Change, 1992, 21: 289-302 doi: 10.1007/BF00139728 URL
[4]	Kloster D P, Morzillo A T, Volin J C. A national and local media perspective on responsibility for and solutions to storm-related power outages in the northeastern United States[J]. Environmental Hazards, 2018, 18: 228-245 doi: 10.1080/17477891.2018.1544114 URL
[5]	Zhou B Z, Gu L, Ding Y, et al. The great 2008 Chinese ice storm: its socioeconomic-ecological impact and sustainability lessons learned[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2011, 92: 47-60 doi: 10.1175/2010BAMS2857.1 URL
[6]	Song X, Zhang Z, Chen Y, et al. Spatiotemporal changes of global extreme temperature events (ETEs) since 1981 and the meteorological causes[J]. Natural Hazards, 2013, 70: 975-994 doi: 10.1007/s11069-013-0856-y URL
[7]	Zuo Z Y, Zhang R H, Huang Y, et al. Extreme cold and warm events over China in wintertime[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2015, 35: 3568-3581 doi: 10.1002/joc.2015.35.issue-12 URL
[8]	左志燕, 李明倩, 安宁, 等. 中国冬季大范围极端冷、暖日的变化与成因[J]. 中国科学: 地球科学, 2022, 52 (2): 238-252.
	Zuo Z Y, Li M Q, An N, et al. Variations of widespread extreme cold and warm days in winter over China and their possible causes[J]. Science China Earth Sciences, 2022, 65 (2): 337-350 (in Chinese) doi: 10.1007/s11430-021-9836-0
[9]	Zhang X, Alexander L V, Hegerl G C, et al. Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data[J]. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2011 (2): 851-870
[10]	谢星旸, 游庆龙, 王雨枭. 1961—2014年中国冬季极端低温变化特征分析[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2018, 23 (4): 429-441.
	Xie X Y, You Q L, Wang Y X. Changes in extreme low temperature in China in the winters from 1961 to 2014[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2018, 23 (4): 429-441 (in Chinese)
[11]	翟盘茂, 潘晓华. 中国北方近50年温度和降水极端事件变化[J]. 地理学报, 2003, 58 (S1): 1-10.
	Zhai P M, Pan X H. Change in extreme temperature and precipitation over northern China during the second half of 20th century[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003, 58 (S1): 1-10 (in Chinese)
[12]	杨金虎, 江志红, 魏锋, 等. 近45 a来中国西北年极端高、低温的变化及对区域性增暖的响应[J]. 干旱区地理, 2006, 29 (5): 625-631.
	Yang J H, Jang Z H, Wei F, et al. Variability of extreme high temperature and low temperature and their response to regional warming in Northwest China in recent 45 years[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2006, 29 (5): 625-631 (in Chinese)
[13]	Chen S F, Chen W, Wei K. Recent trends in winter temperature extremes in eastern China and their relationship with the Arctic Oscillation and ENSO[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2013, 30: 1712-1724 doi: 10.1007/s00376-013-2296-8 URL
[14]	Zhang Z J, Qian W H. Identifying regional prolonged low temperature events in China[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2011, 28: 338-351 doi: 10.1007/s00376-010-0048-6 URL
[15]	Walsh J E, Phillips A S, Portis D H, et al. Extreme cold outbreaks in the United States and Europe, 1948-99[J]. Journal of Climate, 2001, 14: 2642-2658 doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<2642:ECOITU>2.0.CO;2 URL
[16]	王晓娟, 龚志强, 任福民, 等. 1960—2009年中国冬季区域性极端低温事件的时空特征[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2012, 8 (1): 8-15.
	Wang X J, Gong Z Q, Ren F M, et al. Spatial/temporal characteristics of China regional extreme low temperature events in winter during 1960-2009[J]. Climate Change Research, 2012, 8 (1): 8-15 (in Chinese)
[17]	王晓娟, 龚志强, 沈柏竹, 等. 近50年中国区域性极端低温事件频发期的气候特征对比分析研究[J]. 气象学报, 2013, 71 (6): 1061-1073.
	Wang X J, Gong Z Q, Shen B Z, et al. A comparative study of the climatic characteristics of the periods of frequent occurrence of the regional extreme low temperature event in China in recent 50 years[J]. Acta Meteorological Sinica, 2013, 71 (6): 1061-1073 (in Chinese)
[18]	Chen H S, Liu L, Zhu Y J. Possible linkage between winter extreme low temperature events over China and synoptic-scale transient wave activity[J]. Science China Earth Sciences, 2012, 56: 1266-1280 doi: 10.1007/s11430-012-4442-z URL
[19]	Zhai P M, Pan X H. Trends in temperature extremes during 1951-1999 in China[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2003, 30: 1913. DOI: 10.1029/ 2003GL018004 doi: 10.1029/ 2003GL018004
[20]	Qian W H, Lin X. Regional trends in recent temperature indicesin China[J]. Climate Research, 2004, 27: 119-134. DOI: 10.3354/CR027119 doi: 10.3354/CR027119 URL
[21]	刘子奇, 路瑶, 李艳. 中国大范围持续性极端低温事件年代际变化及其大气环流成因[J]. 高原气象, 2022, 41 (3): 558-571. doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2021.00031
	Liu Z Q, Lu Y, Li Y. Interdecadal variability of extensive and persistent extreme cold events in China and their atmospheric circulation causes[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2022, 41 (3): 558-571 (in Chinese) doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2021.00031
[22]	柏会子, 肖登攀, 刘剑锋, 等. 1965—2014年华北地区极端气候事件与农业气象灾害时空格局研究[J]. 地理与地理信息科学, 2018, 34 (5): 99-105.
	Bai H Z, Xiao D P, Liu J F, et al. Temporal and spatial patterns of extreme climate events and agrometeorological disasters in North China from 1965 to 2014[J]. Geography and Geo-Information Science, 2018, 34 (5): 99-105 (in Chinese)
[23]	梁苏洁, 丁一汇, 赵南, 等. 近50年中国大陆冬季气温和区域环流的年代际变化研究[J]. 大气科学, 2014, 38 (5): 974-992.
	Liang S J, Ding Y H, Zhao N, et al. Analysis of the interdecadal changes of the wintertime surface air temperature over mainland China and regional atmospheric circulation characteristics during 1960-2013[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2014, 38 (5): 974-992 (in Chinese)
[24]	Yun J, Ha K J, Jo Y H. Interdecadal changes in winter surface air temperature over East Asia and their possible causes[J]. Climate Dynamics, 2017, 51: 1375-1390 doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-3960-y
[25]	王会军, 范可. 东亚季风近几十年来的主要变化特征[J]. 大气科学, 2013, 37 (2): 313-318.
	Wang H J, Fan K. Recent changes in the East Asian monsoon[J]. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2013, 37 (2): 313-318 (in Chinese)
[26]	Wang L, Chen W. The East Asian winter monsoon: re-amplification in the mid-2000s[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2014, 59: 430-436 doi: 10.1007/s11434-013-0029-0 URL
[27]	Wang L, Chen W. An intensity index for the East Asian winter monsoon[J]. Journal of Climate, 2014, 27: 2361-2374 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00086.1 URL
[28]	Wang H, Zuo Z Y, Qiao L, et al. Frequency of the winter temperature extremes over Siberia dominated by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation[J]. NPJ Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2022, 5: 1-10 doi: 10.1038/s41612-021-00225-3