极地冰盖临界点：机制解析、系统响应与模拟挑战

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.149

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2026, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (1): 1-13.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.149

极地冰盖临界点：机制解析、系统响应与模拟挑战

王千禧¹^,², 李腾¹^,²(), 唐学远³, 张通⁴, 张子谦⁵, 丁明虎⁶, 程晓¹^,²

¹ 中山大学遥感科学与技术学院南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室（珠海），珠海 519082
² 极地环境立体观测与应用教育部重点实验室（中山大学），珠海 519082
³ 自然资源部极地科学重点实验室/中国极地研究中心（中国极地研究所），上海 200136
⁴ 北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室，北京 100875
⁵ 北京师范大学遥感与数字地球全国重点实验室，北京 100875
⁶ 中国气象科学研究院极地与全球变化研究所，北京 100081

收稿日期:2025-06-24 修回日期:2025-08-29 出版日期:2026-01-30 发布日期:2025-12-25
通讯作者: 李腾，男，助理教授，liteng28@mail.sysu.edu.cn
作者简介:王千禧，男，博士研究生
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划(2021YFC2802504);国家自然科学基金项目(42206249);国家自然科学基金项目(42276257);国家自然科学基金项目(42271133);南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室（珠海）创新团队项目(311021008);南极中山雪冰和空间特殊环境与灾害国家野外科学观测研究站开放研究基金(ZSNORS-20242604)

Polar ice sheet tipping points: mechanisms, system responses, and modeling challenges

WANG Qian-Xi¹^,², LI Teng¹^,²(), TANG Xue-Yuan³, ZHANG Tong⁴, ZHANG Zi-Qian⁵, DING Ming-Hu⁶, CHENG Xiao¹^,²

¹ School of Geospatial Engineering and Science, Sun Yat-sen University, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai 519082, China
² Key Laboratory of Comprehensive Observation of Polar Environment (Sun Yat-sen University), Ministry of Education, Zhuhai 519082, China
³ Key Laboratoryfor Polar Science, Ministry of Natural Resources, Polar Research Institute of China, Shanghai 200136, China
⁴ State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
⁵ State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
⁶ Institute of Global Change and Polar Meteorology, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China

Received:2025-06-24 Revised:2025-08-29 Online:2026-01-30 Published:2025-12-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

冰盖临界点问题已成为冰盖-气候系统非线性响应研究的核心领域，蕴含深刻的反馈机制、临界阈值与不可逆性等关键科学议题。在系统梳理冰盖临界点基本内涵的基础上，重点解析正反馈机制如何驱动系统跨越稳定边界，以及负反馈过程在减缓变率、维持相对稳态中的潜在作用。进一步从格陵兰冰盖、西南极冰盖与东南极冰盖三大系统出发，剖析各自的临界演化路径、动态特征及其对扰动的响应差异，突出地形控制、冰-海耦合与局地扰动传播等关键因素的调节作用。结合系统耦合与级联机制的研究进展，指出多临界过程之间可能存在协同触发和级联风险，并梳理当前数值模拟中的主要不确定性来源及其改进思路。在此基础上，提出观测-模拟融合框架的优化路径，强调临界点识别与预警机制在未来冰盖演化和不确定性评估中的关键意义，以此支撑冰盖系统临界行为的理论深化与模拟能力提升，并夯实其在未来气候情景下潜在风险的理论基础。

关键词: 冰盖临界点, 不可逆性, 系统耦合, 南极冰盖, 格陵兰冰盖

Abstract:

Tipping points in ice sheet systems have become a focal point in studying nonlinear dynamics within the coupled ice-climate system, presenting critical scientific challenges involving self-reinforcing feedbacks, critical thresholds, and irreversible responses. This review synthesizes current understanding of the fundamental mechanisms driving ice sheet tipping behavior, emphasizing how positive feedbacks can propel the system beyond stability thresholds, while negative feedbacks may buffer variability and maintain quasi-stable states. Focusing on the Greenland, West Antarctic, and East Antarctic ice sheets, we assess their distinct evolutionary trajectories, dynamic regimes, and responses to external forcing, highlighting the regulatory roles of bed topography, ice-ocean interactions, and the propagation of localized disturbances. Incorporating recent insights into system coupling and cascading tipping dynamics, we further examine the risk of compound tipping events and cross-system amplifications. Key sources of uncertainty in numerical modeling—ranging from poorly constrained boundary conditions to incomplete process representations—are identified systematically, along with strategies for their reduction. We conclude by outlining priority directions for enhancing observation-model integration and underscore the need for robust tipping point detection and early warning frameworks. This review aims to advance the theoretical basis and predictive capacity for assessing ice sheet stability and associated risks under future climate scenarios.

Key words: Ice sheet tipping point, Irreversibility, System coupling, Antarctic ice sheet, Greenland ice sheet

王千禧, 李腾, 唐学远, 张通, 张子谦, 丁明虎, 程晓. 极地冰盖临界点：机制解析、系统响应与模拟挑战[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2026, 22(1): 1-13.

WANG Qian-Xi, LI Teng, TANG Xue-Yuan, ZHANG Tong, ZHANG Zi-Qian, DING Ming-Hu, CHENG Xiao. Polar ice sheet tipping points: mechanisms, system responses, and modeling challenges[J]. Climate Change Research, 2026, 22(1): 1-13.

图/表 5

图1 冰盖-气候系统中若干关键反馈机制的示意图注：图中黄色为正反馈机制，蓝色为负反馈机制。

Fig. 1 Schematic of key feedback mechanisms in the ice-sheet-climate system

表1 区域主导机制表

Table 1 Dominant mechanisms by region

图2 冰盖系统接地线潜在稳态示意图（据Reese等[40]改绘）(a) MISI机制下的稳态分支图，(b)完全可逆系统注：这里的控制参数如全球平均温度、气候条件等；冰盖系统状态如接地线位置、浮力线以上冰体积等。

Fig. 2 Schematic of potential steady states of the ice-sheet grounding line [40]. (a) Steady-state branches under the MISI mechanism, (b) fully reversible system

图3 冰盖系统对扰动的非线性响应类型与突变机制示意图（据Rosier等[66]改绘）(a)可逆线性响应，(b)低强迫引发强响应但仍可恢复，(c)产生滞后性失稳与迟滞现象，(d)出现永久性不可逆注：其中，x1、x2、x3、xt为临界点，其中xt表示由于瞬态滞后，系统状态晚于控制量变化的临界点。

Fig. 3 Schematic illustration of types of nonlinear responses and tipping mechanisms of the ice-sheet system to perturbations [66]. (a) Reversible linear response, (b) strong but still reversible response triggered by weak forcing, (c) onset of delayed instability and hysteresis, (d) permanent, irreversible response

表2 冰盖系统临界动态、关键驱动因素和核心影响

Table 2 Critical dynamics, key drivers, and primary impacts of the ice-sheet system

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极地冰盖临界点：机制解析、系统响应与模拟挑战

Polar ice sheet tipping points: mechanisms, system responses, and modeling challenges

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