Abstract:

To investigate and analyze the lag effect of meteorological factors on the incidence of bacillary dysentery in Jiayuguan city, the daily incidence data of bacillary dysentery in the city during 2008—2013 was collected and the meteorological data over the same period was integrated, on the basis of which the distributed lag non-linear model was used to analyze the relevance between temperature and the incidence of bacillary dysentery and to analyze the possible influence of different temperatures and different lag days on the incidence of bacillary dysentery. The results show that the incidence of bacillary dysentery was closely associated with meteorological factors, with the peak incidence happening between June and August. As indicated by the correlation analysis between the daily incidence cases of bacillary dysentery and meteorological factors, the daily incidence cases of bacillary dysentery in Jiayuguan were correlated with air temperature, air pressure, and rainfall. J- and U-shaped relationships were found consistently between daily mean temperature and the daily incidence cases of bacillary dysentery in Jiayuguan, and temperature had an obvious lag effect on the daily incidence of bacillary dysentery, which occurred following exposure at the first day, the relative risk for female reached the highest at the 2-3 days, and the value for male becomes the largest at the 4-5 days. Hot effects were larger in females than those in males, and the hot effect increased with age. Meteorological factors play an important role in the occurrence and development of bacillary dysentery in Jiayuguan. The incidence of bacillary dysentery is affected by multiple meteorological factors, but the primary one is high temperature. The temperature has not a direct effect on the incidence of bacillary dysentery, but an indirect influence in different populations through the impacts of various aspects of the incidence of bacterial dysentery (residents living habits, communication channels and the habitus of the susceptible population).

Key words: meteorological factors, bacillary dysentery, lag effects, Jiayuguan city