ISSN 1673-1719
CN 11-5368/P
   Table of Content
  31 May 2016, Volume 12 Issue 3 Previous Issue    Next Issue
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Scenario and Feasibility Study for Peaking CO2 Emission from Energy Activities in China   Collect
Jiang Kejun, He Chenmin, Zhuang Xing, Liu Jia, Gao Ji, Xu Xiangyang, Chen Sha
Climate Change Research. 2016, 12 (3): 167-171.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.200
Abstract ( 978 )   HTML (   PDF (624KB) ( 642 )  

To control the temperature increase to be limited under 2℃ in 2100 compared with that in pre-industrialization period, became a international target for policy-making. This study presents the modeling analysis results from IPAC model, on emission scenarios for CO2 from energy activities, and analyzes key factors in the scenarios, to understand the feasibility to reach the pathway. It concludes CO2 emission from energy activities could peak in 2020-2022, which could be driven by economic structure transformation, energy efficiency improvement, development of renewable energy and nuclear energy, carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology diffusion, and low-carbon life style changes. The peaking amount of CO2 would be around 9 billion tons, and start to decrease after that, which could match with the emission pathway for China to following the global 2℃ emission pathway. This could be used in the domestic policy-making process and international collaboration. In order to implement this emission pathway, it is essential to make further climate change oriented policies such as carbon pricing, besides the existing environment and energy policies.

Preliminary Study of China’s Total Coal Consumption Control Scheme Based on Air Pollution Control   Collect
Luo Hong, Zhang Baoliu, Lu Lianhong, Pei Yingying
Climate Change Research. 2016, 12 (3): 172-178.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.180
Abstract ( 670 )   HTML (   PDF (659KB) ( 370 )  

To control the coal consumption is the key measure to deal with air pollution issues, while China’s coal consumption control has not ever been decomposed to local level. With this case, based on the analysis of air pollution constraints, combined with scenario analysis and data regression, to set up the relationship between air pollutants and coal consumption, then to study the whole China’s and each provinces’ coal consumption goals in 2020 and 2030, finally to design the scheme of China’s coal consumption, which proposed the national coal consumption control target of 2020 and 2030 are respectively 4.0 billion tons and 4.5 billion tons respectively, the provinces’ is implemented according to the predictions, the summary values were 4.4 billion tons and 5.0 billion tons respectively, in view of the gap between two cases is due to the national statistical factors considered discarding duplicates, thus the results of the analysis based on national statistics will be adopted. It recommends building green economic developmental indicators of coal consumption, while appropriately increasing the proportion of coal consumption for electricity production, so as to provide technical support for China’s reasonable coal consumption of medium and long term.

Analysis and Suggestions on the HFC-23 Abatement Policy in China   Collect
Liu Kan, Zheng Wenru, Li Yijie
Climate Change Research. 2016, 12 (3): 179-184.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.190
Abstract ( 671 )   HTML (   PDF (498KB) ( 482 )  

Analysis on the emission reductions verification reports indicates the policy brought about 60.78 Mt CO2e HFC-23 emission reductions in 2014, covering 21.7% of the accumulated HFCs emission reductions target during the 12th Five-Year Plan. Suggestions on monitoring methodology, policy design and follow-up monitor & supervision are given out to benefit the policy implementation and HFC-23 emission reductions after 2020.

Characteristics Evolution of International Carbon Emissions and China’s Countermeasures   Collect
Yang Zhanhong, Pei Yingying, Luo Hong, Xue Jie
Climate Change Research. 2016, 12 (3): 185-192.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.170
Abstract ( 919 )   HTML (   PDF (855KB) ( 452 )  

Through systematic comparison of the total emissions, per capita emissions and emission intensity of CO2 in the major countries, the characteristics of carbon emission in developed countries are summarized, and the carbon emissions history and its causes of each stage in China is analyzed. Through the comparative analysis of the relevant policies to address climate change between developed countries and developing countries, combined with the characteristics of carbon emissions in China and abroad, the main problems in China’s carbon emissions and climate change mitigation are also summarized. At last, we put forward countermeasures for China to deal with climate change under the new normal, including actively participating in climate negotiations, and promoting the development of low carbon of the international community at the international level; while at the level of China, effectively changing the economic growth mode, and leading the development of low carbon economy in China.

The Difference Between New and Old Climatic Stage and Its Influence on Climatic Operation in the Northeast China   Collect
Fang Yihe, Zhao Chunyu, Wang Ying, Gu Zhengqiang, Chen Haishan, Wu Jie
Climate Change Research. 2016, 12 (3): 193-201.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.160
Abstract ( 768 )   HTML (   PDF (2488KB) ( 683 )  

Based on the monthly temperature and precipitation data of 53 observational stations in the Northeast China and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data of monthly geopotential height data and monthly sea surface temperature data reconstructed by NOAA during 1961-2012, a comparison was made between the two 30-year climatic normal of meteorological elements as well as 500 hPa geopotential height and sea surface temperature field. The influence to climatic operation by the change of climatic normal condition was analyzed. The results suggest that for most part of the Northeast China, the climate in the new climatic normal condition is wetter and warmer than that in the old climatic normal condition; the global 500 hPa geopotential height and sea surface temperature values during the new climatic normal condition are all slightly higher than that in the old climatic normal condition; winter temperature rise in the Northeast China is largely caused by weakening intensity of East Asia trough and Siberian high; higher intensity of West Pacific subtropical high and Okhotsk blocking high, among others, is the major factor responsible for higher precipitation in most months in this region; reduced intensity of northeast cold vertex is the main reason that less precipitation occurs in June in this region; the reduction of precipitation in September and October may be associated with the change of sea surface temperature; variation in climatic normal condition produces effects on climatic operation such as climatic variation operation, climatic evaluation and climatic prediction, necessitating for example reevaluation of ENSO and warm winter event as well as reanalysis of extreme events, and may affect the trend and order of magnitude.

The Analysis of the Evolution of Climate Negotiating Positions in Chronology and Future Emission Targets in Major Countries   Collect
Wu Jing, Wang Shiqi, Wang Zheng
Climate Change Research. 2016, 12 (3): 202-216.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.169
Abstract ( 828 )   HTML (   PDF (905KB) ( 668 )  

On the basis of analyzing the evolution of major countries’ climate negotiating positions in chronology, the implementation of major countries’ emission reduction targets promised in the Kyoto Protocol and the long-term emission reduction targets by 2025 or 2030 are assessed. The results show that the enthusiasm to address climate change issues in the U.S., Canada, Australia, which are members of the Umbrella Group, is relevant to the political Party in power. Considering current ruling Parties of these three countries, they have shown negative positions to reduce emissions. The emission reduction rate in U.S., Canada, and Australia by 2030 would be less than 20% compared to 1990 level, which is much lower than the 40% reduction rate of the European Union by 2030. BASIC countries gradually transformed into active participants from initial opponents in international negotiations. China not only commits to achieve the peaking of CO2 emissions around 2030, but also announces to provide finance for mitigations in other developing countries. The emission in South Africa will keep stable by 2025, but may rise after 2025. Brazil is active and ambitious in climate negotiation due to the reducing greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, showing a significant decline in emissions by 2030. However, the emission in India will still keep increasing by 2030.

The Impact Assessment of Global Carbon Tax Policy on Carbon Emission and the World Economy   Collect
Ma Xiaozhe, Wang Zheng, Tang Qinneng, Zhu Yongbin
Climate Change Research. 2016, 12 (3): 217-229.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.159
Abstract ( 856 )   HTML (   PDF (708KB) ( 465 )  

The study simulated the world’s regional economic development and carbon emissions from 2008 to 2050 and set this simulation results as a benchmark. To simulate abatement effect of carbon tax and its impact on the economy, this paper constructed the other three kinds of carbon tax policy. In scenario 1, the carbon tax revenues were used as regional revenue. In this scenario, global warming slowed down and the world’s carbon emissions decreased significantly. At the same time, some regions’ economic development was damaged severely, especially developing countries, such as China, India and Russia. In scenario 2, we distributed the carbon revenues in accordance with the proportion. The world’s carbon emissions fell more slightly in scenario 2 than in scenario 1, while the regional economy got better development. The carbon tax rate grew with time in scenario 3 and the control effect of carbon tax policy on global warming was more significant than other scenarios. The economies of regions, especially in developing regions, got more rapid growth. In addition, the carbon tax revenues using to improve regional technology promoted and upgraded the industry construct. In conclusion, coordinated policies of carbon tax policy and technical progress, which balance the regional economies, are a kind of effective and feasible global climate governance policy.

Study of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Accounting Methodology of Public Buildings in Operation   Collect
Lu Chuanyi
Climate Change Research. 2016, 12 (3): 230-235.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.167
Abstract ( 890 )   HTML (   PDF (464KB) ( 521 )  

In the paper the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission accounting methods for public buildings in operation is put forward, the cases study is done and some advices on the methodology of accounting GHG emissions from public buildings in future carbon emission trading market are given. It shows that the emission is accounted by activity level multiply emission factor, and the emissions include GHG emission from combustion of fossil fuels, GHG releases from equipment and systems, GHG removals from newly planted trees, and emission from purchased electricity and heat. The case study shows that the emission from purchased electricity and heat accounts for 88.32%, the emission from refrigeration and air-conditioning, from fire extinguishers and CH4 emission from the digestion tanks are small. The newly planted trees absorb 4.22% of the CO2 emissions, which is also small. The emission from combustion of fuels in mobiles sources accounts for 11.99%, whether it should be considered is determined by the use of the emission data. For future carbon emission trading market of China, the accounting scope for public buildings is suggested that includes GHG emission from combustion of fossil fuels and the emission from purchased electricity and heat.

Paris Agreement, Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities and the Transformation of International Climate Regime   Collect
Bo Yan
Climate Change Research. 2016, 12 (3): 243-250.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.018
Abstract ( 1231 )   HTML (   PDF (622KB) ( 707 )  

Simplifying the elements of international regimes into ‘principles’ and ‘rules’ the article analyzes the significance of the Paris Agreement’s adherence to the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDRRC) and the changes in the approach to apply this principle. The CBDRRC is an important element of international climate regime and defines the basic feature of global climate governance regime, that is, the fair distribution of commitments between developed and developing countries. However, there are always divergences on the interpretation and the approach to apply this principle among Parties, especially since 2007. The Paris Agreement makes it clear that it will be implemented to reflect equity and the principle of CBDRRC, in the light of different national circumstances. This settles the divergences among Parties in some sense and guarantees the equity, universality, legality and effectiveness of international climate regime. However, there are some changes in the approach to apply the principle, which add new features to the rules of the international regime. Above all, the transformation of international climate regime so far has been the change within the regime.

Interpretation of Adaptation and Loss and Damage Elements in Paris Agreement and Possible Solution for China   Collect
Chen Minpeng, Zhang Yucheng, Li Bo, Li Yu’e
Climate Change Research. 2016, 12 (3): 251-257.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.006
Abstract ( 1279 )   HTML (   PDF (555KB) ( 500 )  

Paris Agreement, as comprises of all Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Chang (UNFCCC), succeeded in addressing all the main concerns of each Party. The Agreement was guided by the principles of the UNFCCC and presented the bifurcated differentiation between developed countries and developing countries. The Article 7 in Paris Agreement established a global adaptation goal in the context of global temperature goal, decided that developed country Parties continue their obligations for supporting developing country Parties to enhance adaptation actions, and requested all Parties to submit and update periodically an adaptation communication. The Article 14 structured a global stocktake of adaptation in conjunction with mitigation and finance with a cycle of 5 years. The Article 8 anchored Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage associated with Climate Change Impacts and formulated a framework for all Parties to address loss and damage on a cooperative and facilitative basis. However, Paris Agreement has reserved differences on a lot of technical and key issues. China, as a large emerging developing country, will have to encounter continuous political pressure with regard to adaptation finance and loss and damage. China should enhance domestic adaptation actions, strengthen relevant researches and use South-South Climate Fund effectively, so as to react positively to the pressures and to promote global adaptation and addressing loss and damage.

Design of CMIP6   Collect
Zhao Zongci Luo Yong
Climate Change Research. 2016, 12 (3): 258-260.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.066
Abstract ( 1257 )   HTML (   PDF (324KB) ( 1105 )  
Policy Suggestions for Establishing GHG Emissions Accounting Guideline at the Enterprise Level in China   Collect
Liu Qiang, Chen Liang, Duan Maosheng, Zheng Xiaoqi
Climate Change Research. 2016, 12 (3): 236-242.   DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.142
Abstract ( 792 )   HTML (   PDF (554KB) ( 777 )  

This paper summarized current situation and development trend of the GHG emissions accounting guideline at the enterprise level globally. It indicated that the accounting boundary, emissions accounting scope, and use of activity data and emission factor data are key issues in the development of GHG emissions accounting guideline in China. The policy suggestions were correspondingly raised for the establishment of systematical GHG emissions accounting guideline at the enterprise level in China, i.e., firstly, improving the regulatory arrangement of GHG emissions management at the enterprise level. Secondly, defining the appropriate accounting boundary and establishing the direct online reporting system for key enterprises and facilities. Thirdly, including the indirect emissions from purchased electricity and heat into the accounting and determining the coverage of GHG types according to sectoral circumstance and development trend. Fourthly, completing the data monitoring and collection system and enhancing the capacity building of statistics. Fifthly, unifying the selection rule for emission factors and gradually establishing the national emission factor database. Finally, setting the benchmark of enterprise obligatory for GHG emissions reporting.

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