Climate Change Research ›› 2016, Vol. 12 ›› Issue (3): 167-171.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.200

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Scenario and Feasibility Study for Peaking CO2 Emission from Energy Activities in China

Jiang Kejun1, He Chenmin2, Zhuang Xing1, Liu Jia3, Gao Ji4, Xu Xiangyang5, Chen Sha6   

  1. 1 Energy Research Institute, National Development and Reform Commission, Beijing 100038, China;
    2 Environment Secience and Engineering College, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China; 
    3 Renm Consulting, Beijing 100038, China; 
    4 China Academy of Agriculture Science, Beijing 100081, China; 
    5 Beijing University of Mining & Technology, Beijing 100083, China; 
    6 Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China
  • Received:2015-11-18 Revised:2016-03-14 Online:2016-05-31 Published:2016-05-30
  • Contact: Kejun JIANG


To control the temperature increase to be limited under 2℃ in 2100 compared with that in pre-industrialization period, became a international target for policy-making. This study presents the modeling analysis results from IPAC model, on emission scenarios for CO2 from energy activities, and analyzes key factors in the scenarios, to understand the feasibility to reach the pathway. It concludes CO2 emission from energy activities could peak in 2020-2022, which could be driven by economic structure transformation, energy efficiency improvement, development of renewable energy and nuclear energy, carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology diffusion, and low-carbon life style changes. The peaking amount of CO2 would be around 9 billion tons, and start to decrease after that, which could match with the emission pathway for China to following the global 2℃ emission pathway. This could be used in the domestic policy-making process and international collaboration. In order to implement this emission pathway, it is essential to make further climate change oriented policies such as carbon pricing, besides the existing environment and energy policies.

Key words: emission scenario, GHGs, energy, peaking emission, 2℃ target

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