Abstract:

To control the temperature increase to be limited under 2℃ in 2100 compared with that in pre-industrialization period, became a international target for policy-making. This study presents the modeling analysis results from IPAC model, on emission scenarios for CO₂ from energy activities, and analyzes key factors in the scenarios, to understand the feasibility to reach the pathway. It concludes CO₂ emission from energy activities could peak in 2020-2022, which could be driven by economic structure transformation, energy efficiency improvement, development of renewable energy and nuclear energy, carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology diffusion, and low-carbon life style changes. The peaking amount of CO₂ would be around 9 billion tons, and start to decrease after that, which could match with the emission pathway for China to following the global 2℃ emission pathway. This could be used in the domestic policy-making process and international collaboration. In order to implement this emission pathway, it is essential to make further climate change oriented policies such as carbon pricing, besides the existing environment and energy policies.

Key words: emission scenario, GHGs, energy, peaking emission, 2℃ target