ISSN 1673-1719
CN 11-5368/P
   Table of Content
  30 July 2012, Volume 8 Issue 4 Previous Issue    Next Issue
For Selected: View Abstracts Toggle Thumbnails
Continuation of the Global Warming   Collect
Climate Change Research. 2012, 8 (4): 235-242.  
Abstract ( 2632 )   HTML (   PDF (4550KB) ( 1761 )  
Based on the observed global and Chinese surface air temperature data, it is indicated that 2001-2010 is the warmest decade since the global-scale observations are available, though temperatures do not increase significantly within the last decade. It does not mean that the global warming has paused at all. Meanwhile, mean temperature of China for the same period is also the highest. Seasonal mean temperatures of China show that winter temperatures in Northeast and Xinjiang are lower in the last decade (2001-2010) than in the previous decade (1991-2000). It may attribute to the intensification of the Siberian high and East Asian winter monsoon. However, it will not overwhelm the general warming trend in China.
Changes of 20-Year Return Temperature and Precipitation Extremes over China Simulated by RegCM3   Collect
Climate Change Research. 2012, 8 (4): 243-249.  
Abstract ( 2691 )   HTML (   PDF (4254KB) ( 1471 )  
Based on a high resolution climate change simulation of the 21st century conducted by a regional climate model (RegCM3) nested with a global climate model (MIROC3.2_hires), temperature and precipitation extremes changes as measured by 20-year return values over China under the IPCC SRES A1B scenario are analyzed. Validation of the model performances in simulating present day (1981-2000) distribution of 20-year return values against the observation is firstly carried out. Results show that the model reproduced well the spatial distributions of the values. However, compared with the observation, the model showed deficiencies in simulating the magnitudes of them. Significant increase of the 20-year return values of extreme maximum temperature is found over the whole China in the model simulation, both in the middle (2041-2060) and end (2081-2100) of the 21st century, especially over the Northeast China in the end of the 21st century. Increased value for extreme minimum temperature in the future is also simulated, while the greatest increase is found over Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and southern slope of the Tibetan Plateau. General increase of extreme precipitation value is also found both in the middle and end of the 21st century. The above changes are more profound in the end of the 21st century compared with the middle. The results indicate a general increase of the frequency and spread of heat waves, and a general decrease of the frequency and spread of extreme cold events in the future over China. Extreme precipitation events are also projected to increase in both the frequency and the spread.
Evaluation and Projection of Temperature Extremes over China Based on 8 Modeling Data from CMIP5   Collect
Climate Change Research. 2012, 8 (4): 250-256.  
Abstract ( 4691 )   HTML (   PDF (5227KB) ( 2016 )  
Evaluation and projection of temperature extremes over China are carried out with 8 model data from CMIP5. Compared with the NCEP reanalysis data, multi-model weighted ensemble has a capacity of reproducing the 8 temperature extreme indices and 20-year return values of annual maximum/minimum temperature. The time correlation coefficients of all the 8 indices between multi-model ensemble and the reanalysis can reach 0.10 significance level and the spatial correlation coefficients of 20-year return values of annual maximum/minimum temperature are greater than 0.98. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, more extreme warm and less cold events are expected over China in multi-model ensemble. By the middle of the 21st century, the heat wave duration index will be multiplied 2.6 times. At the end of the 21st century, the cold wave duration index will decrease 71%, and the 20-year return values will increase 4℃ in parts of China for the maximum/minimum temperature.
Impact of Global Warming on Cotton-Planting Zoning in the ürümqi-Changji Region of Xinjiang   Collect
Climate Change Research. 2012, 8 (4): 257-264.  
Abstract ( 2833 )   HTML (   PDF (4783KB) ( 1224 )  
Based on the daily temperature data of sixteen meteorological stations in ürümqi City and the Changji Hui national autonomous prefecture of Xinjiang (the ürümqi-Changji region) during 1961-2010, the fundamental spatial and temporal change characteristics of the annual accumulated temperature of ≥10℃, July (the warmest month in a year) mean temperature and frost-free period were analyzed by using the linear regression method, the t-test and the three-dimensional and quadratic trend surface simulation and the inverse-distance squared weighting residual error revising based on GIS. The cotton-planting climate zoning for the ürümqi-Changji region in 1961-2003 and 2004-2010 were completed with the climate indicators of cotton zoning. Possible changes of climate zoning for cotton planting relative to that in 1961-2010 were projected for the future when annual mean temperature increases 1℃, 2℃, 3℃ and 4℃, respectively. The main results are as follows: the agro-climatic heat resource in 1961-2010 was obviously different from areas of the ürümqi-Changji region; generally, the annual accumulated temperature of ≥10℃, July mean temperature and frost-free period were higher/longer in plain areas than in mountainous areas. The three indicators showed an increasing trend at the rates of 52.3℃•d/10a、0.1℃/10a and 3.3 d/10a in 1961-2010, and had an abrupt increase, rise and extension in 1995, 2004 and 1987, respectively. Under the joint effects of the above-mentioned climate factors, the area suitable for cotton growing after 2004 had a substantial expansion relative to that before 2004, but the areas secondly suitable, risk and unsuitable for cotton growing reduced to different extent. The global warming in future will significantly affect the cotton zoning in the ürümqi-Changji region. Overall, under the premise of other conditions remaining invariant, when the annual mean temperature increases by 1℃ relative to that of 1961-2010, the area suitable for cotton growing will increase 6600 km2, and the areas secondly suitable and unsuitable for cotton growing will reduce 2100 km2 and 4700 km2, respectively, but change in the area risk for cotton growing will be very small.
Responses of Growth Period of Spring Wheat in Northern Ecotone to Climate Change: A Case of Wuchuan County, Inner Mongolia, China   Collect
Climate Change Research. 2012, 8 (4): 265-271.  
Abstract ( 2929 )   HTML (   PDF (3812KB) ( 1395 )  
The northern ecotone is an area sensitive to climate changes, and crop’s growth and development are profoundly affected by them. Studies on the impact law of climate change on agricultural production and crops’ response to climate change are of great significance to promote sustainable development of agriculture in the northern farming-pastoral ecotone. Based on the 1960-2009 meteorological data and 1992-2010 agro-meteorological observation data of spring wheat in Wuchuan County, the relationship between climate change and growth period changes of spring wheat were studied in this paper as a representative case of the northern farming-pastoral ecotone. It is shown that the annual temperature of Wuchuan County increased at an average rate of 0.43℃/10a in 1960-2009. The date to meet the spring wheat seeding temperature had an advanced trend. The first date for daily mean temperature in spring to steadily pass through 0 ℃ advanced 0.98 d/10a, the last date for daily mean temperature in autumn to steadily fall down through 0 ℃ postponed 0.24 d/10a, and thereby the growing season of spring wheat had an extending trend. The soil relative humidity in soil layers 0-10 cm and 10-20 cm depth in crop growing season (April-August) during the period 1992-2010 had a decreasing trend with an average rate of 18%/10a and 13%/10a, respectively. The first date of the sowing stage was significantly negatively correlated with the soil relative humidity of 0-10 cm and 10-20 cm depths, i.e., the soil relative humidity reduced every 1%, the first date delayed 0.2 and 0.3 d, respectively. The other growing stages were the same as sowing stage, affected by the combined effects of temperature and soil moisture, that is to say, duration days between various growth stages was positively correlated with temperature and soil moisture. It is concluded that changes in spring wheat growth period are the result of the combined effect of climatic factors, but in the northern farming-pastoral ecotone, soil moisture has a greater impact on crop’s growth and development, in particular, directly on all growth stage processes of spring wheat.
Definition of Business as Usual and Its Impact on Assessment of Mitigation Efforts   Collect
Fei teng
Climate Change Research. 2012, 8 (4): 272-277.  
Abstract ( 2430 )   HTML (   PDF (3706KB) ( 1089 )  
Business as usual (BAU) scenario has been a debated issue during climate change negotiation. This paper introduces different definitions of BAU and points out that the major difference among different definitions is how to set the starting point of BAU projection, so called the “base year” of BAU. Some international institutions used “existing policy scenarios” to project the BAU trajectory of developing countries. Such a definition will lead to an underestimate of the BAU emissions of developing countries and thus an underestimate of mitigation efforts. This paper suggests to use the “without policy scenario” with a fixed base year as the definition of BAU, this definition will set an objective benchmark for assessing the mitigation efforts of developing countries.
Regional Allocation of CO2 Intensity Reduction Targets Based on Cluster Analysis   Collect
Climate Change Research. 2012, 8 (4): 278-284.  
Abstract ( 2364 )   HTML (   PDF (4414KB) ( 1083 )  
To meet China’s CO2 intensity target of 40%-45% reduction by 2020 from 2005 level, a regional allocation method based on cluster analysis was developed. The 30 provinces were classified into 6 groups based on economy, emission and reduction potential indicators. Under equity principle, the two most developed groups are assigned the highest reduction targets (55% and 65% respectively), however their reduction potential is limited. Under efficiency principle, the 2 groups with highest reduction potential take the highest targets (48% and 61% respectively), but their economy is relatively backward. When equity and efficiency are equally weighted, the 5th group with prominent reduction potential takes the highest target (54%), and the 2nd and 3rd groups with large industry scale take the second highest target (49%). Whereas under the 3 allocation schemes, the targets are not greater than 40% for the 4th and 6th group, which have relatively low economic ability, emission and reduction potential. Due to inconsistency between economic ability and reduction potential, corresponding market mechanism and policy instrument should be established to ensure equity and efficiency of regional target allocation.
A Study on EU’s Inclusion of Civil Aviation into EU Emission Trading System   Collect
Climate Change Research. 2012, 8 (4): 285-291.  
Abstract ( 2311 )   HTML (   PDF (4833KB) ( 1152 )  
EU would include all flights from and to EU airports into EU Emission Trading System (ETS) since Jan. 1st, 2012 in the light of Directive 2008/101/EC. This paper elaborates the relevant EU legislation and policy and points out that EU ETS is a typical “cap and trade” system to limit the greenhouse gas emissions by means of regulating emission cap and trading allowances. Based on such an elaboration, this paper concludes that EU’s unilateral extension of EU ETS to international aviation will strengthen the climate change initiative to benefit EU economic interests in the end, and establish the monetary power system of EURO by accelerating improvement of EU’s carbon market. As well, such an action will not only induce legal conflicts with United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol, but also constrain the growth of the international air transport owing to buying extra allowances, challenge the capacity building in developing countries through Measure, Report and Verify (MRV) and to some extent impact the UNFCCC negotiations on the sectoral approach.
EU Aviation Carbon Tax and Its International Influences   Collect
Climate Change Research. 2012, 8 (4): 292-296.  
Abstract ( 2672 )   HTML (   PDF (3287KB) ( 1139 )  
Based on the present international situation that the EU’s policy for imposing carbon emission tax on international aviation will take effect formally, the evolution and specific policies are introduced, and methods for monitoring carbon emissions as well as the international influences are discussed. EU aviation carbon tax might increase the costs of global aviation, and ultimately will be transferred to consumers. EU aviation carbon tax will have little effect on the airline companies of developed countries, but much effect on those of developing countries. It is recommended that China should develop related standards for carbon emissions as soon as possible, so as to safeguard the rights of development and speaking.
American Public Understanding of Global Warming and Support for Climate Policy   Collect
Climate Change Research. 2012, 8 (4): 297-304.  
Abstract ( 2626 )   HTML (   PDF (4356KB) ( 1449 )  
Based on poll data and related researches, this paper analyzed American public understanding of global warming, mitigation behavior and support for climate policy. It is found that a majority of the public believe that global warming exists, but many don’s know the relation between global warming and greenhouse gases, and confuse global warming with local air pollution and depletion of ozone in the upper atmosphere. Less than half of the public regard global warming as a serious problem for USA’s individuals and the society, whereas most of them think that global warming is a serious threat to future generations and developing countries. Most of the public recognize the necessity of changing lifestyle to reduce global warming, and have engaged in simple and low-cost behaviors to reduce carbon emissions. However, they are not ready to give up private cars and long distance air travel. The majority of the public support the federal government to control carbon emissions with the precondition that control measures will not hurt economy and employment. The preferred possible measures include developing vehicles and household appliances that use less energy, whereas increase in energy taxes is generally refused.
New Generation of Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emission   Collect
Luo Yong Zhao Zongci
Climate Change Research. 2012, 8 (4): 305-307.  
Abstract ( 2170 )   HTML (   PDF (1375KB) ( 1911 )  
Attribution of Climate Warming to the Causes   Collect
Luo Yong Zhao Zongci
Climate Change Research. 2012, 8 (4): 308-312.  
Abstract ( 2208 )   HTML (   PDF (3145KB) ( 2036 )  
Copyright © Climate Change Research, All Rights Reserved.
Tel: (010)58995171 E-mail: accr@cma.gov.cn
Powered by Beijing Magtech Co. Ltd