Climate Change Research ›› 2019, Vol. 15 ›› Issue (1): 54-61.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.074

• Impacts of Climate Change • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Provincial GDP projection model based on balanced development

Qiang ZHANG1,Nan LI1,Wen-Ying CHEN1,Bao-Guo SHAN2,Cheng-Long ZHANG2,Shuo YIN3   

  1. 1 Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
    2 State Grid Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing 102209, China
    3 Economics &Technology Research Institute, State Grid Henan Electric Power Company, Zhengzhou 450052, China;
  • Received:2018-05-21 Revised:2018-09-02 Online:2019-01-30 Published:2019-01-30


In this paper, a GDP projection model was constructed based on the Cobb-Douglas production function and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Under the consideration of balanced development the Gini coefficient of provincial GDP per capita was used to measure the degree of development balance. This model projects Chinese provincial GDP and GDP per capita from 2016 to 2050. Based on the balanced development from technology, labor, and capital. The projection results show that from 2016 to 2050, the gap between the GDP and GDP per capita in each province will shrink and the Gini coefficient will decline. In this projection, the Gini coefficient will decrease from 0.219 in 2015 to 0.176 in 2030 and then to 0.137 in 2050. The results also show that development of each province will tend to be balanced in the future.

Key words: GDP, Provincial balanced development, Gini coefficient, Cobb-Douglas function, ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model

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