Climate Change Research ›› 2015, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (2): 144-152.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.02.010

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Economic and Environmental Impacts of the Shanghai Carbon Emission Trading: Based on CGE Model Analysis

Zhou Shenglu   

  1. Shanghai Academy of Environmental Sciences, Shanghai 200233, China
  • Received:2014-10-14 Revised:2015-01-14 Online:2015-03-30 Published:2015-03-30

Abstract: Shanghai energy-environment-economy CGE model was developed to simulate the economic impacts and co-benefits of different carbon emission trading schemes (ETS) under alternative employment conditions. The results illustrate that double dividend from carbon emission trading is available supposing that the labor released out from ETS sectors is absorbed immediately. Otherwise, GDP will decrease 1.5%-2.4% compared to baseline due to the implementation of ETS in 2020. Under the scenario with all sectors covered by ETS, the carbon price is relative lower, which increase from 30 RMB/t CO2 in 2013 to 202 RMB/t CO2 in 2020. The negative impact on the competitiveness of energy-intensive sectors is smaller compared to the scenario that part of sectors are covered, however, the negative impact on GDP is the biggest. Carbon emission trading will bring obvious environmental co-benefits, and play an important role on the realization of SO2 and NOX mitigation target.

Key words: Shanghai, carbon emission trading, CGE model, economic impact, co-benefits

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