Carbon tax policy simulation based on CGE model: a case study of Guangdong province

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.155

Abstract

Abstract:

Setting up carbon tax policy scientifically is an important basis for controlling carbon dioxide emissions and promoting the optimization of energy structure. This paper takes Guangdong province as an example, using the input-output table of Guangdong province in 2012, the Guangdong Statistical Yearbook, the Guangdong Financial Yearbook, the China Statistical Yearbook and other data to construct the social accounting matrix, through building a static computable general equilibrium model (CGE), to simulate the regional carbon tax policy, and to analyze the impact of different carbon tax rates on fossil energy consumption and macroeconomic variables. The results show that carbon tax has a significant positive effect on emission reduction. When the carbon tax level is 60 CNY/t, the emission reduction effect of Guangdong province is 3.90%. In terms of carbon tax pricing, 60 CNY/t is more appropriate. The fossil energy with the highest contribution rate is coal, followed by oil and finally natural gas. Under the impact of carbon tax, energy consumption declines, most notably coal, followed by thermal power. Carbon tax shock can also significantly reduce the consumption of coal in various sectors. The carbon tax policy has a negative effect on Guangdong's GDP and social welfare, but a positive effect on the overall carbon emission intensity. In the future, Guangdong province should strictly control coal consumption and carry out low-carbon transformation of thermal power sector.

Key words: Carbon tax, CGE model, Social accounting matrix (SAM), Guangdong province

ZHOU Di, CAI Xiao-Ting, ZHANG Da-Quan, ZHANG Yu-Fan. Carbon tax policy simulation based on CGE model: a case study of Guangdong province[J]. Climate Change Research, 2020, 16(4): 516-525.

Figures/Tables 11

Fig. 1 Production module nesting structure

Fig. 2 Trade module nesting structure

Table 1 Data source of macro social accounting matrix (SAM) table

Table 2 Macroscopic SAM table after balance

Table 3 Constant elasticity of substitution

Table 4 Carbon emission coefficient of three fossil energy resources in Guangdong province

Table 5 Emission reduction effect of carbon tax under different scenarios and ad valorem tax rate of fossil energy

Table 6 Contribution rate of fossil energy to total emission reduction under different scenarios

Table 7 Changes of energy consumption under different scenarios

Table 8 Energy consumption in different sectors under different emission reduction scenarios

Table 9 Fluctuation of macroeconomic variables under different emission reduction scenarios

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