Analysis and evaluation of climate carrying capacity of Beibu Gulf urban cluster in south Guangxi

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.274

Abstract

Abstract:

The quantitative evaluation system of urban climate carrying capacity, constructed by using climate natural influence factors and socio-economic development factors, was used to quantitatively evaluate the climate carrying capacity changes of Guangxi Beibu Gulf coastal city cluster (Beihai, Fangchenggang and Qinzhou) from 2000 to 2019. The results show that the climate natural capacity of the three cities increases with fluctuations during the study period, and the growth trend of Beihai and Fangchenggang is significant, reflecting the influence of urbanization on climate; the pressure of extreme climate events fluctuates sharply and the overall growth is not significant; the city climate pressure and city coordinated development ability of each city show an increasing trend in the process of urban development, but the growth of city coordinated development ability, is still insufficient to balance the negative impacts brought by natural climate factors and urban economic development. The overall climate carrying capacity of Beibu Gulf urban cluster shows a fluctuating and significant downward trend, reflecting the increasingly obvious constraints of the climate environment on the construction and development of coastal cities; the climate carrying capacity of three cities is sensitive to the changes of climate natural capacity and extreme climate event pressure indicators, and extreme low temperature, strong wind, persistent no rainfall and heavy rainfall events are the main threat factors to the stability of the climate system of the coastal urban agglomeration. In future development planning of the Beibu Gulf urban cluster, it is necessary to enhance the climate carrying capacity to improve the ability of science and technology to protect the environment, and defend against natural disasters, and taking the road of low energy consumption to cope with the pressure brought by climate change.

Key words: Guangxi Beibu Gulf, Urban agglomeration, Climate carrying capacity, Sustainable development

WU Xiao-Wen, HE Jie-Lin, LI Yan-Jun, SONG Jie-Hui, QIN Chuan. Analysis and evaluation of climate carrying capacity of Beibu Gulf urban cluster in south Guangxi[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(4): 446-456.

Figures/Tables 13

Table 1 Structure of climate carrying capacity evaluation system

Fig. 1 Changes in climate natural capacity (CNC) of Beibu Gulf urban cluster during 2000-2019

Table 2 Correlation coefficients between climate natural capacity (CNC) and each index of Beibu Gulf urban cluster

Fig. 2 Changes in extreme climate event (ECI) of Beibu Gulf urban cluster during 2000-2019

Table 3 Weight of each indicator of extreme climate event index (ECI) of Beibu Gulf urban cluster

Table 4 Correlation coefficients between ECI and each index of Beibu Gulf urban cluster

Fig. 3 Changes in city climate pressure (CCP) of Beibu Gulf urban cluster during 2000-2019

Table 5 Weight of each indicator of city climate pressure (CCP) of Beibu Gulf urban cluster

Table 6 Correlation coefficients between CCP and main indexes of Beibu Gulf urban cluster

Fig. 4 Changes in city coordinated development ability (CDA) of Beibu Gulf urban cluster during 2000-2019

Table 7 Weight of each indicator of city coordinated development ability (CDA) of Beibu Gulf urban cluster

Table 8 Correlation coefficients between CDA and each index of Beibu Gulf urban cluster

Fig. 5 Changes in city carrying capacity (CCI) of Beibu Gulf urban cluster during 2000-2019

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