Spatio-temporal variations and propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought in the upper Yangtze River basin over last 120 years

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.225

Abstract

Abstract:

Meteorological drought is a precursor of hydrological drought. Understanding the propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought is important for the early warning of hydrological drought. Based on the meteorological and hydrological data from 1901 to 2020 in the upper Yangtze River basin, the characteristics of meteorological and hydrological droughts were firstly analyzed by using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and standardized runoff index (SRI), respectively. The tempo-spatial propagation time from meteorological to hydrological drought for each month were then calculated by the Spearman correlations and sliding window algorithm. The impacts of climate change and human activities on the propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought were finally evaluated by the humidity index (HI) and reservoir index (RI). Results are as follows. Meteorological and hydrological droughts tend to aggravate, and the larger time scale, the longer duration of both droughts. There are obvious spatio-temporal heterogeneity in propagation time from meteorological to hydrological drought, which is long in winter/in northwest, whilst short in spring, summer and autumn/in southeast. The overall drought propagation tends to be faster in spring and summer while it tends to be slower in autumn and winter, and its changes are related to both dry/wet pattern change and intensive hydropower development in the upper Yangtze River basin.

Key words: Meteorological drought, Hydrological drought, Propagation time, Spatio-temporal characteristics, The upper Yangtze River basin

LI Shuai, ZENG Ling, ZHANG Cun-Jie, XIAO Chan, ZHANG Qiang, GONG Wen-Ting. Spatio-temporal variations and propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought in the upper Yangtze River basin over last 120 years[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(3): 263-277.

Figures/Tables 14

Fig. 1 Map of the upper Yangtze River basin and locations of 117 reservoirs

Table 1 Drought grade standard

Table 2 Grades of humidity index based on Chinese climate classification[46]

Fig. 2 Annual variations of areal mean precipitation (a), temperature (b), potential evapotranspiration (c) over the upper Yangtze River basin, and runoff (d) at Yichang station

Fig. 3 Spatial distributions of variation trend of annual precipitation (a), mean temperature (b), and potential evapotranspiration (c) over the upper Yangtze River basin in 1901-2020

Fig. 4 Variations of areal mean SPEI-n over the upper Yangtze River basin (a) and SRI-n at Yichang station (b) in different accumulation periods

Fig. 5 Variations of standard deviation of areal SPEI-n over the upper Yangtze River basin in different accumulation periods

Fig. 6 Spatial distributions of maximum Spearman correlation coefficients between SRI-1 and SPEI-n at different months over the upper Yangtze River basin in 1901-2020. (“+” denotes that it has passed the significance test at the 95% confidence level)

Fig. 7 Spatial distributions of propagation time from meteorological to hydrological drought at different months over the upper Yangtze River basin in 1901-2020. (“+” denotes that it has passed the significance test at the 95% confidence level)

Fig. 8 Annual variations of maximum Spearman correlation coefficients between SRI-1 and SPEI-n at different months over the upper Yangtze River basin. (Gray bound denotes the uncertainty interval obtained by means ± standard deviations)

Fig. 9 Annual variations of propagation time from meteorological to hydrological drought at different months over the upper Yangtze River basin. (Gray bound denotes the uncertainty interval obtained by means ± standard deviations)

Fig. 10 Spatial distributions of humidity index (HI) at different months over the upper Yangtze River basin in 1901-2020

Fig. 11 Correlations between areal means of propagation time from meteorological to hydrological drought and humidity index (HI) at different months over the upper Yangtze River basin during 1925-1996

Fig. 12 Variations of reservoir index (RI) over the upper Yangtze River basin

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