Simulation research on the evolution pathway planning of energy supply and demand in China under the dual carbon targets

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.286

Abstract

Abstract:

Low carbon energy transition is essential to achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality, and is related to economic and social development of China. Based on the LEAP energy system model, and with the electric power industry as the key emission reduction sector, the medium- and long-term pathway was explored for China to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality, energy demand, energy supply, CO₂ emissions and costs were simulated in multiple scenarios, and the ecological and economic impacts of energy allocation were analyzed. It can be concluded that energy consumption shows a trend of reducing coal, stabilizing oil, increasing gas, and accelerating electricity substitution. Final energy consumptions could reach the peak before 2040 and CO₂emissions from final energy consumptions could reach the peak before 2030. The carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technology is crucial to achieving CO₂ emission targets, while maintaining a certain amount of thermal power capacity to ensure the stability and safety of the power grid, and will gradually have the technical advantage in the future. At last, this paper proposes policy recommendations for achieving the dual carbon goals in terms of promoting controls of total carbon emissions and intensity, accelerating the low-carbon transformation of the power system by CCUS and other technologies innovations, and improving the construction of the national carbon market to promote carbon emissions trading.

Key words: Carbon emission peak, Energy consumption, LEAP model, Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), Carbon emission reduction

CAI Li-Ya, GUO Jian-Feng, SHI Chuan, WANG Hao-Bin, ZHU Rong-Qi, NIU Yan, XUE Zhi-Guang, BAI Ruo-Bing, JI Jun-Ping, DUAN Jing-Lin. Simulation research on the evolution pathway planning of energy supply and demand in China under the dual carbon targets[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(5): 616-633.

Figures/Tables 17

Fig. 1 Model structure of energy demand and supply

Table 1 Assumptions of China’s GDP and growth rate

Table 2 Growth rate of energy intensity

Table 3 Assumptions of China’s urban and rural population

Table 4 Scenario description

Fig. 2 Electricity capacity structure in scenarios

Fig. 3 Final energy demand in 2020-2060

Fig. 4 Industrial final energy demand structure in 2020-2060

Fig. 5 Coal, oil and gas supply in 2025-2060

Fig. 6 Power generation structure by scenarios in 2020-2060

Fig. 7 CO2 emissions from final energy consumption in 2020-2060

Fig. 8 CO2 emissions of final energy consumption by sectors in 2020-2060

Fig. 9 CO2 emissions from power generation industry by scenarios in 2020-2060

Fig. 10 CO2 emissions reduction potential of waste disposal in 2020-2060

Fig. 11 CO2 emissions per unit of GDP in 2020-2060

Fig. 12 Costs of power generation by scenarios in 2020-2060

Fig. 13 Comparison of carbon capture costs and carbon price in 2040-2060

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