2001—2020年中国月尺度热带气旋灾害时空变化特征研究

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.088

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在全球变暖背景下，西北太平洋和南海热带气旋（TC）移动路径发生了明显变化。中国社会经济迅速发展导致承灾体暴露度增加，中国TC灾害的时空分布呈现新的特征。利用2001—2020年中国省级TC灾害损失资料，对比分析了前后10年中国月尺度TC灾害的时空分布特征。结果表明：中国7—9月的TC灾害损失占全年总损失的84%以上，大部分省（区、市）TC灾害损失峰值出现在8月，但广西峰值出现在7月，海南、内蒙古和黑龙江出现在9月；中国致灾TC（DTC）中有15%未登陆中国，未登陆DTC在海南发生频次最高，在黑龙江造成的损失最重；与2001—2010年相比，2011—2020年中国DTC年频数增加，其中未登陆DTC年频数增加，登陆DTC年频数减少，但8月登陆和未登陆DTC频数均增加；受西北太平洋和南海TC活动路径变化的影响，2011—2020年中国8月DTC灾害损失更突出，未登陆DTC影响增大，DTC影响范围向北扩展，给中国TC灾害预报预警和防台减灾工作带来更严峻的挑战。

关键词: 热带气旋（TC）, 灾害损失, 热带气旋路径, 月尺度, 致灾热带气旋（DTC）

Abstract:

Under the background of global warming, the tracks of tropical cyclones (TCs) have changed significantly in the Northwest Pacific and the South China Sea. As a result of rapid socio-economic development in China, the exposure to disaster has increased, leading to the new characteristics of TC disasters in China. By utilizing data on provincial-level TC disaster losses from 2001 to 2020, a comparative analysis was conducted to examine the changes of TC disasters in China, with a specific emphasis on monthly variations. The findings reveal that TC disasters losses in China from July to September accounted for more than 84% of the annual total. Most of the 22 provinces (regions, municipalities) experienced the peak of TC disaster losses in August, while Guangxi witnessed the peak in July, and Hainan, Inner Mongolia, and Heilongjiang documented their highest losses in September. Among the disastrous TCs (DTCs) that caused losses to China, approximately 15% did not make landfall. Frequency of non-landfalling DTCs was the highest in Hainan, while TC disaster losses induced by non-landfalling DTCs was the heaviest in Heilongjiang. The annual frequency of DTCs and non-landfalling DTCs during 2011-2020 in China was greater than those during 2001-2010. However, the frequency of landfalling DTCs during 2011-2020 was less than that during 2001-2010. Nonetheless, both landfalling and non-landfalling DTCs demonstrated an augmented frequency in August. Influenced by the changes in TC tracks in the Northwest Pacific and the South China Sea, the prominence of TC disaster losses in August has intensified over the past decade in China. The influence of non-landfalling DTCs have aggravated, and the affected areas by DTCs have expanded northward. These changes pose more challenges for TC disaster forecasting, early warning, and disaster risk reduction efforts in China.

Key words: Tropical cyclone (TC), Disaster losses, TC track, Monthly scale, Disastrous TC (DTC)

赵珊珊, 李莹, 赵大军, 周星妍, 艾婉秀. 2001—2020年中国月尺度热带气旋灾害时空变化特征研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19(5): 592-604.

ZHAO Shan-Shan, LI Ying, ZHAO Da-Jun, ZHOU Xing-Yan, AI Wan-Xiu. Spatio-temporal characteristics of tropical cyclone disaster on monthly scale over China during 2001-2020[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(5): 592-604.

图/表 9

图1 2001—2020年致灾气旋（DTC）(a)、登陆DTC (b)和未登陆DTC (c)年平均频数的逐月分布

Fig. 1 Monthly distribution of annual frequency of disastrous tropical cyclone (DTC) (a), landfalling DTC (b), and non-landfalling DTC (c) during 2001-2020

图2 2001—2020年DTC和未登陆DTC灾害损失的逐月分布（a~b）受灾人口，（c~d）受灾面积，（e~f）直接经济损失

Fig. 2 Monthly distribution of disaster losses of DTC and non-landfalling DTC during 2001-2020. (a, b) Affected population, (c, d) affected crop area, (e, f) direct economic losses

图3 2001—2020年DTC受灾频次(a) 和灾害损失(b~d)各月占比的分布

Fig. 3 Distribution of monthly percentage of frequency of DTC (a) and TC-disaster losses (b-d) to the annual total during 2001-2020

图4 2001—2020年未登陆DTC总频次(a)和多年平均灾害损失(b~d)的空间分布

Fig. 4 Spatial distribution of total frequency (a) and annual mean disaster losses (b-d) of non-landfalling DTC during 2001-2020

图5 中国7—9月DTC受灾频次、受灾人口、受灾面积和直接经济损失前后10年差值空间分布

Fig. 5 Spatial distribution of the difference of annual mean DTC frequency, affected population, affected crop area and direct economic losses over China during July-September between 2011-2020 and 2001-2010

图6 2001—2020年平均TC降水量(a)和极端日降水频次(b)的逐月分布

Fig. 6 Monthly distribution of mean TC precipitation (a) and frequency of extreme TC daily precipitation events (b) during 2001-2020

图7 7—9月各月TC降水量和极端日降水频次前后10年差值空间分布注：图中显著性水平为0.10。

Fig. 7 Spatial distribution of difference of annual mean TC precipitation and frequency of extreme TC daily precipitation events during July-September between 2011-2020 and 2001-2010. (The significance level is 0.1)

图8 2001—2020年多年平均西北太平洋和南海生成TC频数的逐月分布

Fig. 8 Monthly distribution of annual mean occurrence of TCs from western North Pacific and the South China Sea during 2001-2020

图9 2011—2020年与2001—2010年西北太平洋和南海生成TC的路径密度差值分布注：黑点代表差值通过0.10显著性水平的检验。

Fig. 9 Spatial distribution of the difference of TC tracks from Northwest Pacific and the South China Sea between 2011-2020 and 2001-2010. (Black dot denotes the difference is significant at the significance level of 0.1)

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