非能源利用及其引起的温室气体排放核算模型研究

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.252

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以大量文献和报告为据，阐述了“非能源利用环节”的内涵，且对国际现有的非能源利用温室气体（GHG）排放量核算模型的核心特征、搭建理念、框架设计原则、发展历程、适用范围和优缺点进行综述和对比，结果表明，IPCC-RA方法可提高非能源利用温室气体排放量的核算效率，IPCC-SA可识别其源项性分布特征；NEAT模型可刻画国际贸易结构对化工产品中碳流动的影响程度；EPA专设模型仅适于美国。IPCC-RA可宏观把控中国非能源利用温室气体排放特征，故基于IPCC-RA核算了中国工业终端部门非能源利用的碳排放与储存量，结果表明，2010—2020年间非能源利用以石油为主，原煤和石脑油对非能碳排放的贡献度高于其他化石燃料。国际既有模型并不能精准描绘我国化工产品贸易结构对非能源利用环节碳流动的作用程度，建议在后续研究中开发出企业层面工艺级别的原料-产品矩阵和非能源利用的本土化碳储存与排放因子，自下向上地搭建符合我国国情的非能源利用温室气体排放量核算模型。

关键词: 非能源利用温室气体（GHG）排放量, IPCC指南法, NEAT模型

Abstract:

Based on a large number of literature and reports, this paper expounds on the connotation of non-energy use link, and summarizes and compares the core characteristics, construction concept, framework design principle, development process, application scope, advantages and disadvantages of different types of non-energy use and its corresponding GHG emissions accounting models caused by them. The results show that the IPCC-RA method can improve the accounting efficiency of non-energy use and its corresponding GHG emissions, and the IPCC-SA method can identify its source term distribution characteristics. The NEAT model can depict the impact of international trade structure on carbon flow in petrochemical products. The EPA-specific model is only for the United States. IPCC-RA can macroscopically control the evolution law of GHG emission corresponding to the energy consumption of raw materials in China and the distribution characteristics of the contribution of different fossil fuels to GHG emission from non-energy use. Therefore, based on IPCC-RA, the carbon emission and carbon storage of energy consumption for non-energy use purposed in China’s industrial sector were calculated. The results show that the energy consumption for non-energy use purposed from 2010 to 2020 was mainly petroleum, and the contribution of raw coal and naphtha to the carbon emission of energy consumption for non-energy use purposed was higher than that of other fossil fuels. The existing international models cannot effectively describe the effect of China’s unique petrochemical product trade structure on the carbon flow in the non-energy use link. It is suggested that in the follow-up study, the raw material energy consumption database of various process categories of different products at the enterprise level and the localized product-raw material matrix should be developed, and the localized fossil fuels consumption for non-energy use purposed and its corresponding GHG emissions accounting and prediction bottom-up model should be built.

Key words: Non-energy use and its corresponding GHG emissions, IPCC guidance method, NEAT model

王敏, 唐旭, 李忻颖, 马美艳, 姜钰卿, 丁聿, 马志达, 任凯鹏, 张宝生. 非能源利用及其引起的温室气体排放核算模型研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19(4): 472-482.

WANG Min, TANG Xu, LI Xin-Ying, MA Mei-Yan, JIANG Yu-Qing, DING Yu, MA Zhi-Da, REN Kai-Peng, ZHANG Bao-Sheng. Research on non-energy use and its corresponding greenhouse gas emission accounting models[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(4): 472-482.

图/表 9

图1 化石燃料的非能源利用环节及其对应的GHG排放源

Fig. 1 Non-energy use of fossil fuels and their corresponding GHG emission sources

表1 NEAT模型4个发展阶段的特点

Table 1 Characteristics of the four stages of the NEAT model

表2 IPCC指南法、NEAT模型和EPA专设模型的优缺点及适用范围对比

Table 2 Comparison of advantages, disadvantages and using ranges of the IPCC guideline methods, NEAT and the EPA-specific model

图2 2001—2020年工业部门燃动能耗和非能源利用量

Fig. 2 Energy consumption for fuel and non-energy use purposed of industrial sectors in 2001-2020

图3 2010—2020年非能源用途的不同能源品种的消费量变化

Fig. 3 Consumption changes of different energy structure of non-energy use in 2010-2020

表3 不同化石燃料种类的储存份额和排放因子汇总[13??-16]

Table 3 Carbon storage fractions and emission factors of different species of fossil fuel [13??-16]

表4 2010—2020年非能源利用的碳储存和碳排放

Table 4 Carbon storage and carbon emission of non-energy use in 2010-2020

图4 2010—2020年不同类别化石燃料的非能碳排放

Fig. 4 Carbon emissions of different fossil fuels of non-energy use in 2010-2020

图5 2010—2020年不同类别化石燃料作非能源用途时的碳储存

Fig. 5 Carbon storage of different fossil fuels of non-energy use in 2010-2020

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