升温1.5℃和2.0℃情景下中亚地区干旱耕地暴露度研究

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.275

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于CMIP5中的5个全球气候模式统计降尺度的降水、最高和最低气温等数据，利用标准降水蒸发指数（SPEI）和强度-面积-持续时间（IAD）方法识别全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下中亚地区干旱事件，结合30 m分辨率土地利用数据，探讨中亚干旱事件的演变及耕地暴露度变化。结果表明：相比基准期（1986—2005年)，中亚地区的降水和潜在蒸发量均有所增加；全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下，中亚地区的干旱事件频次、强度和面积均将增加，其中重旱和极旱事件的频次和影响面积大幅上升，而中旱事件的频次和影响面积持续下降；1986—2005年中亚地区年均干旱耕地暴露度约11.5万km2，全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃情景下，干旱耕地暴露度将分别上升到17.9万km2和28.6万km2，且暴露在极旱下的耕地面积增加最明显。全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下，增加的干旱事件将会严重威胁当地农业生产和粮食安全，中亚地区需对干旱事件采取长期的减缓与适应措施。

关键词: 全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃, 干旱事件, 耕地暴露度, 强度-面积-持续时间（IAD）, 中亚

Abstract:

Based on statistically downscaled daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature of five GCMs in CMIP5, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the Intensity-Area-Duration (IAD) method were used to investigate spatial and temporal variations of drought events in Central Asia under the 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ global warming scenarios. Cropland exposed to droughts in the warming world was estimated by applying the GlobeLand30 land use dataset with 30 m resolution. Both precipitation and potential evapotranspiration are projected to increase under the two warming scenarios compared with the reference period (1986-2005). Frequency, intensity, and areal coverage of total drought events are projected to increase under the 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ warming levels, among the total drought events, frequency and area of moderate droughts are projected to decrease, but those of severe and extreme severe droughts will substantially increase. Annual averaged cropland exposed to droughts was 115000 km2 in 1986-2005 in Central Asia. Cropland exposed to droughts will increase to 179000 and 286000 km2 under the 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ warming scenarios, respectively, with the most significant increase of exposure to extreme severe droughts. Under the 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ global warming scenarios, the drought trend in Central Asia will continue increase, especially for the extreme droughts. The results show that droughts will seriously threaten agricultural production and food security in Central Asia, which calls for long-term mitigation and adaptation measurement for drought events.

Key words: Global warming of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃, Drought events, Cropland exposure, Intensity-Area-Duration (IAD), Central Asia

王安乾, 陶辉, 方泽华. 升温1.5℃和2.0℃情景下中亚地区干旱耕地暴露度研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2022, 18(6): 695-706.

WANG An-Qian, TAO Hui, FANG Ze-Hua. Cropland exposure to drought in Central Asia under the 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ global warming scenarios[J]. Climate Change Research, 2022, 18(6): 695-706.

图/表 10

图1 中亚地区位置

Fig. 1 Location of Central Asia

图2 1961—2005年中亚地区观测与模拟的月气温(a)和降水(b)

Fig. 2 Comparison of monthly temperature (a) and precipitation (b) of observed and simulated in Central Asia during 1961-2005

图3 1961—2005年观测与模拟的中亚地区年均气温与年降水量的空间分布

Fig. 3 Spatial distribution of annual mean temperature and precipitation of observed and simulated in Central Asia during 1961-2005

图4 不同情景下中亚地区年降水（a1~a4）和潜在蒸发（b1~b4）时空变化

Fig. 4 Changes of precipitation (a1-a4) and potential evapotranspiration (b1-b4) in Central Asia in the 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ warming levels and the reference period

图5 不同情景下中亚干旱事件变化

Fig. 5 Changes of droughts with different intensities in Central Asia in the 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ warming levels and the reference period

图6 不同情景下中亚地区干旱事件频次的空间分布(a) 1986—2005年，(b)全球升温1.5℃和(c) 2.0℃

Fig. 6 Distribution of drought frequency in Central Asia for 1986-2005 (a), 1.5℃ (b), and 2.0℃ (c) warming levels

图7 不同情景下中亚地区干旱事件强度变化注：本文用SPEI表征干旱强度。图中黑线为模式预估范围，下同。

Fig. 7 Drought intensity for 1986-2005, 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ warming levels of total drought events (a), moderate droughts (b), severe droughts (c), and extreme severe droughts (d) in Central Asia. (Vertical lines denote range of GCMs)

图8 不同情景下中亚地区干旱事件的影响面积

Fig. 8 Areal coverage of droughts for 1986-2005, 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ warming levels of total drought events (a), moderate droughts (b), severe droughts (c), and extreme severe droughts (d) in Central Asia

图9 不同情景下中亚地区干旱耕地暴露度变化

Fig. 9 Cropland exposed to droughts for 1986-2005, 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ warming levels in Central Asia

图10 基准期(a)、全球升温1.5℃(b)与2.0℃(c)情景下中亚地区干旱耕地暴露度分布

Fig. 10 Distribution of cropland exposed to droughts in Central Asia for 1986-2005 (a), 1.5℃ (b) and 2.0℃(c) warming levels

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