气候变化研究进展

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升温1.5℃和2.0℃情景下中亚地区干旱耕地暴露度研究

王安乾1,陶辉2,方泽华2,3   

  1. 1 山东师范大学地理与环境学院,济南 250358;
    2 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室,乌鲁木齐 830011;
    3 中国科学院大学,北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2021-12-08 修回日期:2022-02-23 出版日期:2022-03-29 发布日期:2022-03-29
  • 通讯作者: 陶辉
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基;中国科学院西部之光项目;中国科学院西部之光项目

Cropland exposure to drought in Central Asia under the 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming scenarios

Wang An-Qian1, Tao Hui2, Fang Ze-Hua2, 3   

  1. 1 College of Geography and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Jinan 250358, China;
    2 State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China;
    3 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2021-12-08 Revised:2022-02-23 Online:2022-03-29 Published:2022-03-29

摘要: 基于CMIP5中的5个全球气候模式统计降尺度的降水、最高和最低气温等数据,利用标准降水蒸发指数(SPEI)和强度?面积?持续时间(IAD)方法识别全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下中亚地区干旱事件,结合30 m分辨率土地利用数据,探讨中亚干旱事件的演变及耕地暴露度变化。结果表明:相比基准期(1986—2005年),中亚地区的降水和潜在蒸发量均有所增加;全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下,中亚地区的干旱事件频次、强度和面积均将增加,其中重旱和极旱事件的频次和影响面积大幅上升,而中旱事件的频次和影响面积持续下降;1986—2005年中亚地区年均干旱耕地暴露度约11.5万km2,全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃情景下,干旱耕地暴露度将分别上升为17.9万km2和28.6万km2,且暴露在极旱下的耕地面积增加最明显。全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下,增加的干旱事件将会严重威胁当的农业生产和粮食安全,要求中亚地区需对干旱事件采取长期的减缓与适应措施。

关键词: 全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃, 干旱事件, 耕地暴露度, 强度?面积?持续时间(IAD), 中亚

Abstract: Based on statistically downscaled daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature of five GCMs in CMIP5, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the Intensity-Area-Duration (IAD) method were used to investigate spatial and temporal variations of drought events in Central Asia under the 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming scenarios. Cropland exposed to droughts in the warming world was estimated by applying the GlobeLand30 land use dataset with 30 m resolution. Both precipitation and potential evapotranspiration are projected to increase under the two warming scenarios compared with the reference period (1986-2005). Frequency, intensity, and areal coverage of total drought events are projected to increase under the 1.5°C and 2.0°C warming levels, among the total drought events, frequency and area of moderate droughts are projected to decrease, but those of severe and extreme severe droughts will substantially increase. Annual averaged cropland exposed to droughts was 115000 km2 in 1986-2005 in Central Asia. Cropland exposed to droughts will increase to 179000 and 286000 km2 under the 1.5°C and 2.0°C scenarios, respectively, with the most significant increase of exposure to extreme severe droughts. Under the 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming scenarios, the drought trend in Central Asia will continue increase, especially for the extreme droughts. The results show that droughts will seriously threaten agricultural production and food security in Central Asia, which calls for long-term mitigation and adaptation measurement for drought events.

Key words: Global warming of 1.5°C and 2.0°C, Drought events, Cropland exposure, Intensity-area-duration (IAD), Central Asia

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