SSP“双碳”路径下赣江流域径流变化趋势

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.104

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

根据共享社会经济情景（SSPs）分为“双碳”路径（SSP1-1.9、SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP4-3.4、SSP4-6.0）和“高碳”路径（SSP3-7.0、SSP5-8.5)。在碳达峰（2028—2032年）和碳中和（2058—2062年）两个时期,采用5个气候模式,7个情景驱动SWAT水文模型,分析赣江流域径流演变特征,主要结论如下：1961—2017年赣江流域观测到的年均气温以0.17℃/(10 a)的速率呈显著上升趋势（p<0.01),降水以17 mm/(10 a)的速率呈不显著上升。“双碳”和“高碳”路径下,2021—2100年赣江流域均呈现暖湿态,气温持续变暖,降水有所增加;碳达峰、碳中和时期,“双碳”路径下年径流呈现增加趋势;“双碳”路径下,月径流在汛期呈现增加趋势,枯水期在SSP1-1.9、SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP4-3.4下呈现增加趋势,在SSP4-6.0下呈现减少趋势。“双碳”路径下极端水文事件强度将可能小于“高碳”路径。

关键词: 共享社会经济情景（SSPs）, 径流变化, 赣江流域

Abstract:

According to the target and the peak time of carbon emissions under SSPs scenarios, SSPs were divided into “double carbon” pathway (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0) and “high carbon” pathway (SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). The runoff evolution characteristics of Ganjiang River basin were analyzed in two periods of peak carbon dioxide emissions (2028-2032) and carbon neutral (2058-2062) based on the SWAT hydrological model. The results are as follows. (1) Annual mean temperature in the Ganjiang River basin from 1961 to 2017 showed a significant upward trend with a rate of 0.17℃/(10 a), while the precipitation increase slightly with a rate of 17 mm/(10 a). Under the “double carbon” and “high carbon” pathways, the Ganjiang River basin will be in a warm and wet state from 2021 to 2100, with temperature rising and precipitation increasing. (2) In the periods of peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutral, annual runoff shows increasing tendency during “double carbon” pathway. In “double carbon” pathway, monthly runoff shows increasing tendency in all scenarios in flood season, while increasing tendency in SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP4-3.4 and decreasing tendency in SSP4-6.0 in dry season. The intensity of extreme hydrological events under the “double carbon” pathway will be less than under the “high carbon” pathways.

Key words: Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), Runoff change, The Ganjiang River basin

杨晨辉, 王艳君, 苏布达, 蒲阳, 王媛, 姜彤. SSP“双碳”路径下赣江流域径流变化趋势[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2022, 18(2): 177-187.

YANG Chen-Hui, WANG Yan-Jun, SU Bu-Da, PU Yang, WANG Yuan, JIANG Tong. Runoff variation trend of Ganjiang River basin under SSP “Double Carbon” path[J]. Climate Change Research, 2022, 18(2): 177-187.

图/表 11

图1 赣江流域外洲水文站和气象站点空间分布

Fig. 1 Spatial distribution of Waizhou hydrological station and meteorological stations in Ganjiang River basin

表1 CMIP6中5个全球气候模式基本信息

Table 1 Basic information of 5 CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs)

表2 SSPs情景介绍

Table 2 Basic information of SSPs

图2 中国“双碳”路径方案注：两条灰色阴影分别代表2028—2032年碳达峰时期和2058—2062年碳中和时期。

Fig. 2 The plan of “double carbon” pathway in China. (The gray shaded areas represent the period of peak carbon dioxide emissions (2028-2032) and the period of carbon neutral (2058-2062), respectively)

表3 率定期（1964—1980年）和验证期（1981—2000年）SWAT水文模型模拟效果评价

Table 3 Evaluation of SWAT model in calibration (1964-1980) and validation (1981-2000) periods

图3 率定期（1964—1980年）和验证期（1981—2000年）月径流模拟值与观测值比较

Fig. 3 Comparison of simulated and observed monthly runoff during calibration period (1964-1980) and validation period (1981-2000)

图4 1961—2014年气象观测数据和多模式集合平均数据的月均气温(a)与月降水(b)的年内分布注：上、下限代表模式最大值和最小值。

Fig. 4 Comparison of monthly mean temperature (a) and monthly precipitation (b) by multi-model ensemble mean and observation in 1961-2014. (The upper and lower limits represent the maximum and minimum values of multiple models)

图5 SSPs下1995—2100年赣江流域年均气温(a)及年降水量(b)变化注：实线为多模式集合平均,阴影表示多个模式的上下限。

Fig. 5 The mean of multi-model annual temperature (a) and precipitation (b) change under different SSPs scenarios from 1995 to 2100 in Ganjiang River basin. (Solid lines represent the multi-model mean, shadows represent the range of multiple models)

图6 碳达峰、碳中和时期年径流较基准期（1995—2014年）变化率

Fig. 6 The change rate of annual runoff in the period of peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutral relative to the base period (1995-2014)

图7 碳达峰、碳中和时期月径流较基准期变化

Fig. 7 The change rate of monthly runoff in the period of peak carbon dioxide emissions (a, c) and carbon neutral (b, d)relative to the base period

表4 碳达峰、碳中和时期Q10和Q90较基准期变化率（括号内为变化率最大、最小值,括号外为平均值）

Table 4 The change rate of Q10 and Q90 in the period of peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutral relative to the base period. (The maximum and minimum value of change rate is in brackets, and the average value is outside brackets) %

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