太平洋年代际振荡对中国冬季最低气温年代际变化的贡献

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.075

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2020, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (1): 70-77.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.075

太平洋年代际振荡对中国冬季最低气温年代际变化的贡献

王岱^1,²,孙银川^1,²(),游庆龙³

1 中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室,银川 750002
2 宁夏气象防灾减灾重点实验室,银川 750002
3 南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室,南京 210044

收稿日期:2019-04-10 修回日期:2019-07-22 出版日期:2020-01-30 发布日期:2020-01-15
通讯作者: 孙银川 E-mail:sunyc@126.com
作者简介:王岱,女,助理工程师, wangdai1012@126.com
基金资助:
宁夏自然科学基金项目(2019AAC03252);宁夏回族自治区重点研发计划项目(2016KJHM129);中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室指令性项目(CAMP-201905)

Contribution of Pacific Decadal Oscillation to interdecadal variability of winter minimum temperature in China

Dai WANG^1,²,Yin-Chuan SUN^1,²(),Qing-Long YOU³

1 Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning and Risk Management of Characteristic Agriculture in Arid Regions, China Meteorological Administration, Yinchuan 750002, China
2 Ningxia Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Reduction, Yinchuan 750002, China
3 Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST), Nanjing 210044, China;

Received:2019-04-10 Revised:2019-07-22 Online:2020-01-30 Published:2020-01-15
Contact: Yin-Chuan SUN E-mail:sunyc@126.com

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于1961—2013年中国台站的均一化气温数据、NOAA月平均海温资料和CMIP5气候模式数据,利用气候统计手段,定量分析太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）对中国冬季最低气温年代际变化的贡献。结果表明：PDO的年代际序列与年代际滤波后的最低气温场在全国大部分地区呈显著正相关,即PDO负位相时中国冬季最低气温偏低,反之偏高。2006年后中国冬季最低气温变暖减缓,造成这一现象的主要原因是自然变率起到的降温作用,而自然变率又主要由PDO起主导作用,约占自然变率贡献的40%左右。PDO对温度的贡献呈现出明显的年代际变化,在变暖减缓期对升温有明显的负贡献,且负贡献逐渐增大至超过50%。

关键词: 中国区域, 太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）, 最低气温, 年代际变化, 贡献

Abstract:

Based on homogeneity-adjusted temperature data of meteorological stations in China, NOAA monthly mean sea temperature data, and CMIP5 climate model data from 1961 to 2013, the contribution of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to the interdecadal variability of China’s winter minimum temperature was quantitatively analyzed by using climatic statistic methods. Results show that the interdecadal sequence of PDO has significant positive correlation with minimum temperature pattern of decadal filtering at most areas in China, winter minimum temperature is low when PDO is in negative phase, while conversely is high. The phenomenon of hiatus of winter minimum temperature after 2006, is mainly caused by cooling effect of natural variability, in which PDO plays a leading role, accounting for about 40% of natural variability contribution. The contribution of PDO to temperature presents an obvious interdecadal change. PDO has negative contribution to warming, and gradually increase to exceed 50% during 2006-2013.

Key words: China area, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Minimum temperature, Interdecadal variability, Contribution

王岱,孙银川,游庆龙. 太平洋年代际振荡对中国冬季最低气温年代际变化的贡献[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2020, 16(1): 70-77.

Dai WANG,Yin-Chuan SUN,Qing-Long YOU. Contribution of Pacific Decadal Oscillation to interdecadal variability of winter minimum temperature in China[J]. Climate Change Research, 2020, 16(1): 70-77.

图/表 8

图1 1961—2013年冬季PDO指数和最低气温距平变化

Fig. 1 The changes of winter PDO index and minimum temperature anomaly from 1961 to 2013

图2 冬季最低气温的年代际变化序列回归全球海温场注：阴影部分达到0.05的显著性水平。

Fig. 2 Global SST patterns regressed from the interdecadal series of winter minimum temperature (Shadow area stands for the area with the 0.05 significance level)

图3 1961—2013年冬季PDO年代际序列与最低气温的相关系数注：实心表示达到0.05显著性水平的站点。

Fig. 3 Correlation coefficient between the interdecadal series of winter PDO index and minimum temperature in 1961-2013 (Solid symbol stands for the site with the 0.05 significance level)

图4 观测与模式模拟的中国最低气温距平序列(a),观测序列减模式集合序列及去趋势后最低气温EOF1时间系数序列(b)

Fig. 4 Anomaly sequence changes of observed minimum temperature and model ensemble data (a), anomaly sequence changes of observed minimum temperature subtract model ensemble and time series of the first EOF mode (b)

表1 去趋势后最低气温EOF分解的前4个模态的方差贡献

Table 1 Variance contribution of the first four modes of EOF decomposition of minimum temperature after detrend

表2 最低气温观测数据分别与模式和EOF分量组合的相关系数

Table 2 Correlation coefficient between observed minimum temperature and model superposing EOF components

图5 PDO指数(a)和去趋势后最低气温EOF1的区域平均序列(b)回归全球海温场注：黑点区域显著性水平达到0.05。

Fig. 5 Global SST patterns regressed onto the PDO index (a) and the regional mean sequence of the first EOF mode component (b) (The significance level of the dotted area is 0.05)

图6 观测、自然变率PDO以及外强迫的非线性趋势(a)及其相对于观测的百分比(b)

Fig. 6 The nonlinear trend of observation, natural variability PDO and external forcing (a) and their percentage relative to observation (b)

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太平洋年代际振荡对中国冬季最低气温年代际变化的贡献

Contribution of Pacific Decadal Oscillation to interdecadal variability of winter minimum temperature in China

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