气候变化研究进展 ›› 2022, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (2): 129-141.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.059

• 气候系统变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

CMIP6模式对青藏高原东坡暖季降水的模拟评估

张歆然(), 陈昊明()   

  1. 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2021-04-07 修回日期:2021-09-28 出版日期:2022-03-30 发布日期:2022-02-11
  • 通讯作者: 陈昊明
  • 作者简介:张歆然,女,硕士研究生, zhangxinranrrr@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC507605);国家自然科学基金项目(42075154)

Assessment of warm season precipitation in the eastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau by CMIP6 models

ZHANG Xin-Ran(), CHEN Hao-Ming()   

  1. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2021-04-07 Revised:2021-09-28 Online:2022-03-30 Published:2022-02-11
  • Contact: CHEN Hao-Ming

摘要:

青藏高原东坡陡峭地形区是气候模式陆地降水模拟偏差的大值区,且这一偏差长期未得到有效改善。基于17个参加国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段(CMIP6)的全球气候模式的日降水结果,评估了当前最新一代的气候模式对青藏高原东坡地区2000—2014年暖季(5—9月)降水气候态及其季节内演变的模拟能力。结果表明:高原东坡降水正偏差存在于大部分的CMIP6模式当中,且模式虚假降水主要源于对强降水(降水量≥6 mm/d)的过量模拟,模式对<6 mm/d的弱降水的模拟略小于观测。尽管模式对高原东坡暖季平均降水表现出一致性的高估,但不同模式对于不同月份降水的模拟存在较大不同。基于环流场的分析显示,高原东坡强降水的季节内演变与高原东坡及其以东对流层中层偏南风的演变密切相关,表明模式对于对流层中层环流的模拟虽然不是导致高原东坡强降水模拟正偏差的最主要因素,但对于环流季节内变化的合理模拟是模式能否再现高原东坡强降水逐月变化的一个关键因子。

关键词: CMIP6模式, 青藏高原东坡地区, 暖季降水, 大气环流

Abstract:

The steep terrain area in the eastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau is a large deviation area for climate models in the processes of simulating land precipitation, and this deviation has not been effectively improved for a long time. Based on the daily precipitation of 17 global climate models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the ability of the latest climate models to simulate precipitation climatological characteristics and their intraseasonal evolution over the eastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau during the warm season (May to September) from 2000 to 2014 was assessed. The results show that the positive precipitation deviation in the eastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau exists in most CMIP6 models, and the false precipitation center mainly comes from the over-simulation of the heavy rainfall (precipitation≥6 mm/d), and the simulation of the weak rainfall (precipitation<6 mm/d) is smaller than that of TRMM observation. Although there is a consistent over-simulation of the warm season precipitation in the eastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau, there are large differences in the simulation of precipitation for different months between models. The analysis based on the circulation field shows that the intraseasonal evolution of the heavy rainfall in the eastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau is closely related to the evolution of southerly wind anomalies in the mid-troposphere in the eastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau and east to it. The above results indicate that although the simulation of the mid-tropospheric circulation is not the main factor causing the positive deviation of the simulation of heavy rainfall in the eastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau, the reasonable simulation of the intraseasonal variation of the circulation is a key factor for a model to reproduce the month-to-month variation of heavy rainfall on the eastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau.

Key words: CMIP6 models, Eastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau, Warm season precipitation, Atmospheric circulation

京ICP备11008704号-4
版权所有 © 《气候变化研究进展》编辑部
地址:北京市海淀区中关村南大街46号 邮编:100081 电话/传真:(010)58995171 E-mail:accr@cma.gov.cn
本系统由北京玛格泰克科技发展有限公司设计开发 技术支持:support@magtech.com.cn