青藏高原雨季建立进程及其环流因子分析

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.179

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2025, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (1): 91-101.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.179

所属专题：西风-季风协同作用下青藏高原典型水环境变化特征及其对气候变化的响应专栏

青藏高原雨季建立进程及其环流因子分析

仕仁睿¹, 蒋兴文²^,³(), 王遵娅⁴

1 四川省气象台，成都 610072
2 中国气象局成都高原气象研究所高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室，成都 610218
3 中国气象科学研究院青藏高原气象研究院，成都 610218
4 中国气象局国家气候中心，北京 100081

收稿日期:2024-07-18 修回日期:2024-09-25 出版日期:2025-01-30 发布日期:2024-12-31
通讯作者: 蒋兴文，男，研究员，xingwen.jiang@yahoo.com
作者简介:仕仁睿，女，助理研究员
基金资助:
第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK0106);国家自然科学基金(42075045);中国气象局青藏高原气候变化及其影响青年创新团队(CMA2023QN16)

The onset of Tibetan Plateau rainy season and its impact factors

SHI Ren-Rui¹, JIANG Xing-Wen²^,³(), WANG Zun-Ya⁴

1 Sichuan Meteorological Observatory, Chengdu 610072, China
2 Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Chengdu 610218, China
3 Institute of Tibetan Plateau Meteorology, (Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS/ITPM)), Chengdu 610218, China
4 National Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China

Received:2024-07-18 Revised:2024-09-25 Online:2025-01-30 Published:2024-12-31

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用1979—2019年青藏高原107站逐日降水资料、ERA5再分析资料等，揭示了青藏高原雨季建立的区域性特征，并讨论了各分区雨季建立进程中大气环流的不同演变特征。结果表明：(1)青藏高原中东部、南部和北部的降水进程、降水集中期和降水量等均不同，因而在此3个分区内的雨季建立表现出了不同特征。(2)青藏高原中东部降水于第27候左右开始明显增多，呈两峰型。其雨季的建立伴随着中纬度西风的减弱，印度西海岸和孟加拉湾的西南季风在高原南缘汇合，以及西南风水汽输送的大幅增加。高原南部降水在第32候左右开始活跃，呈单峰型，其雨季建立对应于西风环流进一步北撤、印度半岛上空对流系统的发展，以及对流层中层西南水汽通量的大量输入。高原北部降水在第29候以后明显增强，呈单峰型，雨季的建立对应于东亚西风急流的北移西伸和高原东、西部风切变的增强。(3)高原各分区雨季建立所对应的水汽来源不尽相同，高原中东部和南部水汽主要来源于南边界和西边界，高原北部则以北边界和西边界为主。近41年，高原中东部和南部雨季建立时间的提前趋势与其区域水汽总收支的显著增加趋势密切相关。

关键词: 青藏高原, 雨季建立, 大气环流, 水汽收支

Abstract:

The spatiotemporal heterogeneity at the onset of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) rainy season and its related evolutions of atmospheric circulation were investigated from 1979 to 2019 based on precipitation datasets from the surface observations and ECMWF. Results show that: (1) TP’s rainy season exhibits three precipitation centers respectively in the central-eastern, southern, and northern regions, with significant discrepancies in their rain process, precipitation concentration period, and precipitation. (2) There exists a bimodal distribution in the annual variation of precipitation over the central-eastern TP, with a remarkable increase around the 27th pentad. The onset of rainy season is accompanied by the weakened westerly stream in the mid-latitudes region, the convergence of the Southwest Monsoon from the Bay of Bengal and the west coast of Indian on the southern edge of the plateau, and the enhanced water vapor transport under southwestlies. However, an increase in precipitation appears at the 32nd pentad over the southern TP, manifesting an unimodal distribution. The corresponding atmospheric circulation pattern involves the northward movement of westerlies, convection development in the Indian Peninsula, and water vapor intrusion in the middle troposphere. In the northern TP, the annual change in precipitation is unimodal, and the increase in precipitation starts at the 29th pentad. The onset of its rainy season corresponds to the westward- and northeard-stretching of East Asian westerly jet, and intensive wind shear over the plateau. (3) It should be pointed out that water vapor flux at the onset of rainy season is mainly transported across the south and west boundaries in the central-eastern and southern subregions but north and west edges over the northern part of TP. The increases in the northward transport flux of water vapor and regional moisture budgets in the plateau region jointly have contributed to an earlier onset of the TP rainy season in the past decades.

Key words: Tibetan Plateau, Onset of rainy season, Atmospheric circulations, Water vapor budgets

仕仁睿, 蒋兴文, 王遵娅. 青藏高原雨季建立进程及其环流因子分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2025, 21(1): 91-101.

SHI Ren-Rui, JIANG Xing-Wen, WANG Zun-Ya. The onset of Tibetan Plateau rainy season and its impact factors[J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(1): 91-101.

图/表 11

图1 青藏高原海拔高度和站点分布注：虚线为3000 m海拔高度线；圆圈为站点。

Fig. 1 Terrain height and distribution of observatory stations on the Tibetan Plateau

图2 青藏高原雨季总降水量（a图阴影）及其占年总降水量的百分比（a图数值，%)、雨季建立时间(b)的空间分布

Fig. 2 Climatology of precipitation during rainy season (a, shadings) and its proportion to annual precipitation (a, numbers, %); the onset of rainy season in the Tibetan Plateau (b)

图3 青藏高原1—12月逐候降水量REOF前3个模态空间分布（a~c）及其对应的时间系数（d~f）注：红色方框分别为根据3个模态空间分布得到的高原3个次区域：高原中东部为A（30.75°~35°N，92.5°~103°E)，高原南部为B（27.5°~31.5°N，86°~101°E)，高原北部为C（36°~39°N，92°~98.4°E）。(d)~(f)虚线为对应的3点滑动平均序列。

Fig. 3 The first to third rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) modes (a-c) and the corresponding time coefficient (d-f) of the pentad precipitation in Tibetan Plateau from 1979 to 2019

图4 1979—2019年平均的青藏高原各分区逐候降水量标准化序列(a)和累计降水量(b)演变

Fig. 4 Climatological annual cycle of the normalized pentad precipitation (a) and the accumulative rainfall (b) over the subregions of Tibetan Plateau averaged from 1979 to 2019

图5 1979—2019年青藏高原各分区雨季建立时间的逐年变化注：点线代表线性趋势。

Fig. 5 Time series of the onset (Julian day) of rainy season over the subregions of Tibetan Plateau from 1979 to 2019. (Doted lines denote the linear trendlines)

图6 青藏高原中东部雨季建立前、后环流场分布注：红色方框代表高原中东部。

Fig. 6 Mean circulation fields for the two pentads before and after the onset of the rainy season over the central-eastern Tibetan Plateau

图7 同图6，但为青藏高原南部

Fig. 7 Same as Fig. 6, but for the southern Tibetan Plateau

图8 同图6，但为青藏高原北部

Fig. 8 Same as Fig. 6, but for the northern Tibetan Plateau

图9 1979—2019年平均的青藏高原各分区边界水汽收支及区域水汽总收支气候平均值的逐候演变

Fig. 9 Annual variation of pentad water vapor transport across the four boundaries and their total budgets over the subregions of pentad Tibetan Plateau from 1979 to 2019

图10 1979—2019年5月青藏高原各分区边界水汽收支及区域水汽总收支的年际变化注：点线代表线性趋势。

Fig. 10 Interannual series of water vapor transport across the four edges and their total budgets over the subregions of Tibetan Plateau from 1979 to 2019. (Doted lines denote the linear trendlines)

表1 1979—2019年青藏高原各分区各边界水汽收支及区域水汽总收支的变化趋势

Table 1 Linear trend of water vapor transport across the four edges and their total budgets over the subregions of Tibetan Plateau from 1979 to 2019 106 kg/(s?(10 a))

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青藏高原雨季建立进程及其环流因子分析

The onset of Tibetan Plateau rainy season and its impact factors

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