Abstract: In a view of regional response to global climate change, eustatic sea level variation and long-term trends of potential cycle in the Shanghai area are analyzed by using the grey model with linear regression analysis, which is combining the least square method and wavelet transform based on the yearly-averaged tidal data at the Wusong tide station in 1912-2000. The eustatic sea level rise in Shanghai area in 2030 is predicted as 4 cm compare with in 2011. Meanwhile, the relative sea level rise is predicted as 10-16 cm, which combined with eustatic sea level rise and published tectonic subsidence, urban ground subsidence, estuarine channel erosion resulted from the watershed soil and water conservation and large water conservancy engineering, and rising of water level due to the land reclamation and deep waterway regulation. Seven risks zoning of the sea level rise in land area of Shanghai is also estimated.
程和琴, 王冬梅, 陈吉余. 2030年上海地区相对海平面变化趋势的研究和预测[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2015, 11(4): 231-238.
Cheng Heqin, Wang Dongmei, Chen Jiyu. Study and Prediction of the Relative Sea Level Rise in 2030 in Shanghai Area. Climate Change Research, 2015, 11(4): 231-238.