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气候变化研究进展  2015, Vol. 11 Issue (4): 231-238    DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.04.001
  海平面变化及其影响专栏 本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
2030年上海地区相对海平面变化趋势的研究和预测
程和琴,王冬梅,陈吉余
华东师范大学河口海岸学国家重点实验室,上海 200062
Study and Prediction of the Relative Sea Level Rise in 2030 in Shanghai Area
Cheng Heqin, Wang Dongmei, Chen Jiyu
State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
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摘要 从全球气候变化区域响应角度,依据1912—2000年吴淞验潮站年平均潮位资料,构建灰色线性回归组合模型,并将其与最小二乘法和小波变换相结合,分析以吴淞为代表的上海绝对海平面长期变化趋势和周期变化规律。由此预测2030年上海绝对海平面相对2011年的上升值为4 cm,结合已公布的构造沉降和城市地面沉降、流域水土保持和大型水利工程及人工挖沙导致的河口河槽冲刷、河口围海造地和深水航道及跨江跨海大桥导致水位抬升等叠加效应及其变化趋势,预测2030年上海市相对海平面上升10~16 cm,陆地海平面上升有7个风险分区。
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程和琴
王冬梅
陈吉余
关键词:  上海  绝对海平面  相对海平面  灰色线性回归模型  海平面上升风险分区    
Abstract: In a view of regional response to global climate change, eustatic sea level variation and long-term trends of potential cycle in the Shanghai area are analyzed by using the grey model with linear regression analysis, which is combining the least square method and wavelet transform based on the yearly-averaged tidal data at the Wusong tide station in 1912-2000. The eustatic sea level rise in Shanghai area in 2030 is predicted as 4 cm compare with in 2011. Meanwhile, the relative sea level rise is predicted as 10-16 cm, which combined with eustatic sea level rise and published tectonic subsidence, urban ground subsidence, estuarine channel erosion resulted from the watershed soil and water conservation and large water conservancy engineering, and rising of water level due to the land reclamation and deep waterway regulation. Seven risks zoning of the sea level rise in land area of Shanghai is also estimated.
Key words:  Shanghai    eustatic sea level    relative sea level    grey model with linear regression analysis    risk zoning of sea level rise
收稿日期:  2014-12-15      修回日期:  2015-05-30           出版日期:  2015-07-31      发布日期:  2015-07-31      期的出版日期:  2015-07-31
基金资助: 

上海市科学技术委员会重大研究计划项目

通讯作者:  程和琴    E-mail:  hqch@sklec.ecnu.edu.cn
引用本文:    
程和琴, 王冬梅, 陈吉余. 2030年上海地区相对海平面变化趋势的研究和预测[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2015, 11(4): 231-238.
Cheng Heqin, Wang Dongmei, Chen Jiyu. Study and Prediction of the Relative Sea Level Rise in 2030 in Shanghai Area. Climate Change Research, 2015, 11(4): 231-238.
链接本文:  
http://www.climatechange.cn/CN/10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.04.001  或          http://www.climatechange.cn/CN/Y2015/V11/I4/231
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