气候变化研究进展 ›› 2013, Vol. 9 ›› Issue (3): 192-198.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2013.03.006

• 气候系统变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于SPEI的中国西南地区1961—2012年干旱变化特征分析

熊光洁1,2,4,张博凯1,李崇银2,3,尚可政1,王式功1   

  1. 1 兰州大学大气科学学院半干旱气候变化教育部重点实验室
    2 中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室
    3 解放军理工大学气象学院
    4 中国人民解放军95718部队
  • 收稿日期:2012-08-10 修回日期:2013-03-18 出版日期:2013-05-30 发布日期:2013-05-30
  • 通讯作者: 熊光洁 E-mail:xionggj10@lzu.cn

Characteristics of Drought Variations in Southwest China in 1961-2012 Based on SPEI

Xiong Guangjie1, 2, 4, Zhang Bokai1, Li Chongyin2, 3, Shang Kezheng1, Wang Shigong1   

  1. 1 Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University
    2 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
    3 Institute of Meteorology, People’s Liberation Army University of Science and Technology
    4 Unit 95718 of People’s Liberation Army
  • Received:2012-08-10 Revised:2013-03-18 Online:2013-05-30 Published:2013-05-30

摘要: 利用1961—2012年中国西南地区86个气象站逐月降水量和平均气温资料,引入一个新的干旱指数——标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)作为干旱等级划分指标,研究了1961—2012年该地区不同时间尺度干旱的变化特征。结果表明:该地区12个月尺度干旱频率在云贵交界区呈显著增加趋势,其他区域变化不显著且不一致;少雨期(11—4月)6个月尺度干旱频率在全区显著增加,而在多雨期(5—10月)大部分区域干旱频率呈缓慢减少趋势,减少最明显的区域在四川南部;3个月尺度干旱频率在春季变化不明显,在秋季和冬季显著增加,其中2000—2012年的增加趋势尤为显著,干旱化趋势严重。

关键词: 西南地区, 标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI), 多时间尺度, 干旱频率

Abstract: The characteristics of different timescale drought variations from 1961 to 2012 in Southwest China were studied, by using a new drought index (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, SPEI) as the division standard of droughts. The level was calculated based on the monthly precipitation and average air temperature data from 86 meteorological stations. The results show that the drought frequency at 12-month timescale presents a significant declining trend in the Yunnan-Guizhou border zone, but an inconsistent and unclear trend in other regions. The drought frequency at 6-month timescale shows a significant increasing trend in the dry period (November -April in the following year) in the whole research area, but a slowly decreasing trend in the rainy period (May-October) in most regions, particularly in southern Sichuan. The drought frequency at 3-month timescale does not indicate a significant trend in spring, but shows a significant increasing trend in autumn and winter, especially in 2000-2012.

Key words: Southwest China, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), multiple timescale, drought frequency

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