基于均一化资料的广州近百年气温变化特征研究

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.097

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用RHtest软件结合台站元数据对广州1908—2019年平均气温进行非均一性检验和订正,结果显示在1912、1928、1942、1988、1995、2004和2010年有7个显著的非均一间断点,订正后升温速率为1.39℃/(100 a),较订正前显著增加,具有准50 a和准3 a的显著周期。运用DB16正交小波分析其多时间尺度变化特征,结果显示方差贡献最大的是趋势分量,其次是准3 a和准6 a周期分量。趋势分量从20世纪40年代开始呈现持续的升温趋势;20世纪80年代中期至20世纪末的快速增暖是准50 a和准20 a周期分量的上升期叠加于趋势分量的结果;1998—2014年增暖停滞特征是准50 a、准20 a和准10 a这3个年代际周期分量的降温位相叠加在趋势分量上引起的。

关键词: 均一化, 百年气温, 多时间尺度, 广州市

Abstract:

RHtest software and station metadata were used to detect and adjust artificial shifts of the annual average temperature of Guangzhou during 1908-2019. The results showed that there were seven significant abrupt change points in 1912, 1928, 1942, 1988, 1995, 2004 and 2010. The temperature increasing rate was 1.39℃/(100 a), which was higher than the series without homogenization adjustment, with significant quasi-50-year and quasi-3-year periods. DB16 orthogonal wavelet was applied to analyze the multiple time scale changing characteristics. The trend component had the largest variance contribution, followed by quasi-3-year and quasi-6-year periodic components. The trend component began to show a continuous warming trend from the 1940s. The rapid warming from the middle 1980s to the end of the 20th century was the result of superposition of the rising phase of the quasi-50-year period component, quasi-20-year period component and the trend component. The warming hiatus from 1998 to 2014 was caused by the superposition of the cooling phase of the quasi-50-year period component, quasi-20-year period component and the quasi-10-year period component.

Key words: Homogenization, Centennial air temperature, Multiple time scales, Guangzhou

潘蔚娟, 吴晓绚, 何健, 吕勇平, 艾卉. 基于均一化资料的广州近百年气温变化特征研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2021, 17(4): 444-454.

PAN Wei-Juan, WU Xiao-Xuan, HE Jian, LYU Yong-Ping, AI Hui. Study on the change characteristics of Guangzhou centennial air temperature based on the homogenization data[J]. Climate Change Research, 2021, 17(4): 444-454.

图/表 11

图1 1961—2019年10个参照站以及参考序列平均气温

Fig. 1 The annual average air temperature series of 10 reference stations and reference series during 1961-2019

表1 广州站1945年至今站址沿革

Table 1 Station evolution of Guangzhou station since 1945

表2 广州1908—2019年平均气温的RHtest检验和订正结果

Table 2 RHtest detecting and adjustment result of the Guangzhou annual average air temperature during 1908-2019

图2 广州1908—1960年(a)和1961—2019年(b)平均气温订正前序列和参考序列的差值及RHtest订正值

Fig. 2 The annual average air temperature difference between series of Guangzhou without adjustment and reference series and RHtest revised value during 1908-1960 (a) and 1961-2019 (b)

图3 1908—2019年广州订正后气温与订正前气温和香港气温

Fig. 3 The annual average temperature series of Guangzhou before and after adjustment Hongkong during 1908-2019

图4 1908—2019年广州(a)和香港(b)平均气温M-K统计量曲线

Fig. 4 The Mann-Kendall statistics of Guangzhou (a) and Hongkong (b) annual average air temperature during 1908-2019

图5 广州1908—2019年平均气温功率谱

Fig. 5 Power spectrum of the annual average temperature series during 1908-2019 of Guangzhou

图6 广州1908—2019年平均气温DB16小波分解重构的趋势分量(a)和6个周期分量(b~c) 注：a0为趋势分量,d1、d2、d3、d4、d5和d6分别对应94.5 a、47.2 a、23.6 a、11.8 a、5.9 a和3.0 a的中心周期。

Fig. 6 Trend components (a) and six quasi periodic components (b?c) of annual average temperature series during 1908-2019 of Guangzhou reconstructed by DB16 wavelet

图7 1963—2019年广州标准序列、黄埔序列、城区序列和龙门平均气温

Fig. 7 The annual average temperature of Guangzhou standard series, Huangpu series, urban series and Longmen series during 1963-2019

图8 广州市中心城区通风潜力系数(a)和容积率(b)分布注：图上的蓝色十字星为天河测站所在位置。

Fig. 8 The distribution of ventilation potential coefficient (a) and floor area ratio (b) in the central area of Guangzhou

图9 1954—2019年广州不同时次平均的逐年平均气温差值

Fig. 9 The difference of annual average temperature obtained by different times during 1954-2019

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