2022年长江上游流域严重干旱对三峡水电站水力发电的影响分析

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.157

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2024, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (1): 37-47.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.157

2022年长江上游流域严重干旱对三峡水电站水力发电的影响分析

刘喆¹^,⁴^,⁵, 王飞⁵, 韩钦梅⁶, 姜璐¹^,⁷, 史培军¹^,²^,³()

1 北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室，北京 100875
2 北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室，北京 100875
3 北京师范大学应急管理部-教育部减灾与应急管理研究院，北京 100875
4 北京师范大学地理科学学部，北京 100875
5 兰州大学资源环境学院，兰州 730000
6 中国气象局国家气候中心，北京 100081
7 北京师范大学（珠海）文理学院，珠海 519085

收稿日期:2023-07-20 修回日期:2023-09-21 出版日期:2024-01-30 发布日期:2024-01-03
通讯作者: 史培军，男，教授，spj@bnu.edu.cn
作者简介:刘喆，男，博士研究生
基金资助:
综合灾害风险学科创新引智计划2.0(B08008)

Analysis of the impact of severe drought in the upper Yangtze River basin on the hydroelectricity production of the Three Gorges Hydropower Station in 2022

LIU Zhe¹^,⁴^,⁵, WANG Fei⁵, HAN Qin-Mei⁶, JIANG Lu¹^,⁷, SHI Pei-Jun¹^,²^,³()

1 State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology (ESPRE), Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
2 Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disasters of Chinese Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
3 Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Emergency Management & Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
4 Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
5 College of Earth and Environment Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
6 National Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
7 Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Beijing Normal University at Zhuhai, Zhuhai 519085, China

Received:2023-07-20 Revised:2023-09-21 Online:2024-01-30 Published:2024-01-03

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用三峡水电站精细化水文数据推算了高时间分辨率的发电量数据，量化了2022年长江上游流域严重干旱对三峡水电站水力发电的影响，并结合汇流区域气象站点降水量数据，分析了汇流区域气象干旱对三峡水电站水力发电的影响机理。结果表明：2022年三峡水电站水力发电量的减少主要集中在7—11月，该时期总水力发电量较正常情况减少了241.10亿kW·h（44.75%)；其中，9月水力发电量减少幅度最大，水力发电量较正常情况减少了68.43亿kW·h（61.05%)。2022年三峡水电站汇流区域7—8月的气象干旱快速传导为水文干旱；同时，6—11月三峡水电站对发电量的调节能力变弱，水文干旱对发电量影响较强；三峡水电站汇流区域7—8月发生的气象干旱与防汛库容的要求，对水力发电均产生了较强影响，其“蓄丰补枯”作用的发挥也受到了明显的不利影响。

关键词: 2022年严重干旱, 三峡水电站, 水力发电, 长江上游流域

Abstract:

High temporal resolution hydrologic data of the Three Gorges Hydropower Station were used to calculate high temporal resolution data of hydroelectricity production. Accordingly, the impact of severe drought in the Upper Yangtze River basin on hydroelectricity production of the Three Gorges Hydropower Station in 2022 was quantified. And, the mechanism of the impact of meteorological drought on hydropower power was analyzed by combining the precipitation data of meteorological stations in the confluence area. The results showed that the reduction of hydroelectricity production of the Three Gorges Hydropower Station in 2022 was mainly concentrated in July-November, which the total hydroelectricity production decreased by 24.110 billion kW·h (44.75%) compared with the normal condition. Among them, the decrease in hydroelectricity production was the largest in September, with hydroelectricity production decreased by 6.843 billion kW·h (61.05%) compared with normal condition. In 2022, the meteorological drought in July and August in the confluence area of the Three Gorges Hydropower Station quickly caused the hydrological drought. Meanwhile, the adjustment capacity of the Three Gorges Hydropower Station was weak from June to November, and the impact of hydrological drought on hydroelectricity production was strong. The meteorological drought that occurred in the confluence area of the Three Gorges Hydropower Station in July-August and the requirement for flood control storage capacity both had a strong impact on hydroelectricity production, and its function of “saving abundant and replenishment dry” had also been obviously adversely affected.

Key words: Severe drought in 2022, Three Gorges Hydropower Station, Hydroelectricity production, The upper Yangtze River basin

刘喆, 王飞, 韩钦梅, 姜璐, 史培军. 2022年长江上游流域严重干旱对三峡水电站水力发电的影响分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2024, 20(1): 37-47.

LIU Zhe, WANG Fei, HAN Qin-Mei, JIANG Lu, SHI Pei-Jun. Analysis of the impact of severe drought in the upper Yangtze River basin on the hydroelectricity production of the Three Gorges Hydropower Station in 2022[J]. Climate Change Research, 2024, 20(1): 37-47.

图/表 16

图1 长江上游流域范围和所用气象站点

Fig. 1 Map of the upper Yangtze River basin and meteorological stations used

表1 标准化降水指数干旱等级划分表

Table 1 Drought classification table of standardized precipitation index

表2 2022年三峡水库汇流区域各月份SPI-2值及对应的干旱等级

Table 2 SPI-2 and corresponding drought grade for each month in the upper Yangtze River basin in 2022

图2 2022年三峡水库汇流区域各月份降水量、入库水量和出库水量较2013—2021年平均变化率

Fig. 2 The average change rate of precipitation, water inflow and water outflow in each month of 2022 compared with 2013-2021 average in the upper Yangtze River basin

图3 2022年各月份三峡水库库水位、下游水位和水头较2013—2021年平均值变化量

Fig. 3 Average changes of Three Gorges reservoir water level, downstream water level and water head in each month of 2022 compared with 2013-2021 average

图4 2022年逐日三峡水库库水位、下游水位和水头与2013—2021年平均值对比

Fig. 4 Comparison of daily Three Gorges reservoir water level, downstream water level and water head in 2022 with 2013-2021 average

图5 计算所得三峡水电站年发电量与实际年发电量的对比

Fig. 5 The comparison between the calculated annual hydroelectricity production of Three Gorges Hydropower Station and the actual annual hydroelectricity production

图6 计算所得三峡水电站季度发电量和年发电量的误差率

Fig. 6 The error rate of quarterly and annual calculated hydroelectricity production of Three Gorges Hydropower Station

图7 2022年各月份三峡水电站发电量估算结果较2013—2021年平均发电量的变化量

Fig. 7 Variation of the calculated hydroelectricity production by month in 2022 compared with the average hydroelectricity production in 2013-2021 in Three Gorges Hydropower Station

图8 2022年逐日三峡水电站发电量估算结果与2013—2021年平均发电量的对比

Fig. 8 Comparison of the calculated daily hydroelectricity production in 2022 with average hydroelectricity production in 2013-2021 in Three Gorges Hydropower Station

图9 三峡水电站汇流区域各月份入库水量与1~24个月时间尺度SPI的相关系数

Fig. 9 The correlation coefficient between the amount of monthly water in storage and SPI on 1-24 month time scale in the upper Yangtze River basin

图10 三峡水库各月份入库水量和出库水量

Fig. 10 The amount of water in and out of storage in each month in the Three Gorges reservoir

表3 三峡水库各月份入库水量与水力发电相关要素之间的相关系数

Table 3 The correlation coefficient between the amount of water in storage and the relevant factors of hydroelectricity production in each month in the Three Gorges reservoir

图11 水文干旱对水头影响流程示意图

Fig. 11 Flow diagram of hydrological drought affecting water head

图12 2022年三峡水库日均出库流量与宜昌站日径流量对比

Fig. 12 Comparison of daily discharge of Three Gorges reservoir and daily flow of Yichang station in 2022

图13 三峡水库各月份发电量与1~24个月时间尺度SPI的相关系数

Fig. 13 The correlation coefficient between the amount of monthly hydroelectricity production and SPI on 1-24 month time scale in the Three Gorges reservoir

参考文献 28

[1]	夏军, 陈进, 佘敦先. 2022年长江流域极端干旱事件及其影响与对策[J]. 水利学报, 2022, 53 (10): 1143-1153.
	Xia J, Chen J, She D X. Impacts and countermeasures of extreme drought in the Yangtze River basin in 2022[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2022, 53 (10): 1143-1153 (in Chinese)
[2]	姜雨彤, 侯爱中, 郝增超, 等. 长江流域2022年高温干旱演变过程评估[J/OL]. 水力发电学报, 2023 [2023-04-02]. http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/11.2241.TV.20230322.1452.002.html.
	Jiang Y T, Hou A Z, Hao Z C, et al. Evolution of hot droughts in the Yangtze River basin in 2022[J/OL]. Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering, 2023 [2023-04-02]. http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/11.2241.TV.20230322.1452.002.html (in Chinese)
[3]	林纾, 李红英, 黄鹏程, 等. 2022年夏季我国高温干旱特征及其环流形势分析[J]. 干旱气象, 2022, 40 (5): 748-763. doi: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2022)-05-0748
	Lin S, Li H Y, Huang P C, et al. Characteristics of high temperature, drought and circulation situation in summer 2022 in China[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2022, 40 (5): 748-763 (in Chinese)
[4]	冯宝飞, 邱辉, 纪国良. 2022年夏季长江流域气象干旱特征及成因初探[J]. 人民长江, 2022, 53 (12): 6-15.
	Feng B F, Qiu H, Ji G L. Characteristics and causes of meteorological drought over Changjiang River basin in summer of 2022[J]. Yangtze River, 2022, 53 (12): 6-15 (in Chinese)
[5]	李忆平, 张金玉, 岳平, 等. 2022年夏季长江流域重大干旱特征及其成因研究[J]. 干旱气象, 2022, 40 (5): 733-747. doi: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2022)-05-0733
	Li Y P, Zhang J Y, Yue P, et al. Study on characteristics of severe drought event over Yangtze River basin in summer of 2022 and its causes[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2022, 40 (5): 733-747 (in Chinese)
[6]	李莹, 叶殿秀, 高歌, 等. 2022年夏季中国气候特征及主要天气气候事件[J]. 大气科学学报, 2023, 46 (1): 110-118.
	Li Y, Ye D X, Gao G, et al. Climate characteristics and major meteorological events in China during the summer of 2022[J]. Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences, 2023, 46 (1): 110-118 (in Chinese)
[7]	夏智宏, 刘敏, 秦鹏程, 等. 2022年长江流域高温干旱过程及其影响评估[J]. 人民长江, 2023, 54 (2): 21-28.
	Xia Z H, Liu M, Qin P C, et al. Development process of high temperature and drought events over Yangtze River basin in 2022 and assessment on its influences[J]. Yangtze River, 2023, 54 (2): 21-28 (in Chinese)
[8]	张强. 科学解读“2022年长江流域重大干旱”[J]. 干旱气象, 2022, 40 (4): 545-548. doi: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639（2022）-04-0545
	Zhang Q. Scientific interpretation of severe drought in the Yangtze River basin[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2022, 40 (4): 545-548 (in Chinese)
[9]	邹旭恺, 高荣, 陈鲜艳, 等. 2022年长江流域夏伏旱监测评估[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2022, 32 (10): 12-16.
	Zou X K, Gao R, Chen X Y, et al. Monitoring and assessment of summer drought in the Yangtze River basin in 2022[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2022, 32 (10): 12-16 (in Chinese)
[10]	范进进, 秦鹏程, 史瑞琴, 等. 气候变化背景下湖北省高温干旱复合灾害变化特征[J]. 干旱气象, 2022, 40 (5): 780-790. doi: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2022)-05-0780
	Fan J J, Qin P C, Shi R Q, et al. Characteristics of compound hot and drought disasters in Hubei under the background of climate change[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2022, 40 (5): 780-790 (in Chinese)
[11]	文伏波, 邱忠恩. 长江流域水能资源利用与可持续发展[J]. 世界科技研究与发展, 1998, (5): 7-14.
	Wen F B, Qiu Z E. Hydropower resources utilization and sustainable development in Changjiang River valley[J]. World Sci-Tech R&D, 1998, (5): 7-14 (in Chinese)
[12]	国网四川省电力公司. 国网四川电力7月售电量刷新单月最高纪录[EB/OL]. 2022 [2022-09-20]. http://www.sc.sgcc.com.cn.
	State Grid Sichuan Electric Company. State Grid Sichuan Electric Company’s July power sales set a new one-month high record[EB/OL]. 2022 [2022-09-20]. http://www.sc.sgcc.com.cn (in Chinese)
[13]	四川省人民政府. 全社会节电行动后实际电力负荷有下降[EB/OL]. 2022 [2022-09-20]. https://www.sc.gov.cn.
	The People’s Government of Sichuan Province. There was a drop in actual power load following the community-wide power saving initiative[EB/OL]. 2022 [2022-09-20]. https://www.sc.gov.cn (in Chinese)
[14]	袁家海. 四川高温限电痛点在何处, 如何防止重演? [EB/OL]. 2022 [2022-09-20]. https://new.qq.com.
	Yuan J H. Sichuan high-temperature power restrictions in the pain points, how to prevent a repeat? [EB/OL]. 2022 [2022-09-20]. https://new.qq.com (in Chinese)
[15]	郭莹. “丰水期”变“枯水季”水电大省四川如何渡难关[EB/OL]. 2022 [2022-09-20]. http://sc.people.com.cn.
	Guo Y. “Abundant water season” into “dry season” hydropower province of Sichuan how to tide over the difficulties[EB/OL]. 2022 [2022-09-20]. http://sc.people.com.cn (in Chinese)
[16]	四川省人民政府. 水电大省四川为何会电力短缺[EB/OL]. 2022 [2022-09-20]. https://www.sc.gov.cn.
	The People’s Government of Sichuan Province. Why is there a power shortage in Sichuan, a major province of hydroelectric power[EB/OL]. 2022 [2022-09-20]. https://www.sc.gov.cn (in Chinese)
[17]	Wan W, Zhao J, Popat E, et al. Analyzing the impact of streamflow drought on hydroelectricity production: a global-scale study[J]. Water Resources Research, 2021, 57: 1-25
[18]	胡赣生, 晏红. 三峡水电站的水头特点及水轮机质量保证[J]. 水电站机电技术, 2001 (4): 1-4.
	Hu G S, Yan H. Head characteristics and turbine quality assurance of the Three Gorges Hydropower Station[J]. Mechanical & Electrical Technique of Hydropower Station, 2001 (4): 1-4 (in Chinese)
[19]	Wang Y F, Chen X W, Chen Y, et al. Flood/drought event identification using an effective indicator based on the correlations between multiple time scales of the Standardized Precipitation Index and river discharge[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2015, 17 (5): 1-10
[20]	马岚. 气象干旱向水文干旱传播的动态变化及其驱动力研究[D]. 西安: 西安理工大学, 2019.
	Ma L. Dynamic change of propagation from meteorological drought to hydrological drought and the driving forces[D]. Xi’an: Xi’an University of Technology, 2019 (in Chinese)
[21]	刘永佳, 黄生志, 方伟, 等. 不同季节气象干旱向水文干旱的传播及其动态变化[J]. 水利学报, 2021, 52 (1): 93-102.
	Liu Y J, Huang S Z, Fang W, et al. Propagation and dynamic change of meteorological drought to hydrological drought in different seasons[J]. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 2021, 52 (1): 93-102 (in Chinese)
[22]	武慧敏, 吕爱锋, 张文翔. 巴音河流域水文干旱对气象干旱的响应[J]. 南水北调与水利科技 (中英文), 2022, 20 (3): 459-467.
	Wu H M, Lyu A F, Zhang W X. Response of hydrologic drought to meteorological drought in the Bayin River basin[J]. South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology, 2022, 20 (3): 459-467 (in Chinese)
[23]	Lorenzolacruz J, Vicenteserrano S, Gonzálezhidalgo, et al. Hydrological drought response to meteorological drought in the Iberian Peninsula[J]. Climate Research, 2013, 58 (2): 117-131 doi: 10.3354/cr01177 URL
[24]	Wilhite D A. Drought: a global assessment[M]. New York: Routledge, 2000
[25]	Huang S, Li P, Huang Q, et al. The propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought and its potential influence factors[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2017, 547: 184-195 doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.01.041 URL
[26]	Peters E, Bier G, van Lanen H, et al. Propagation and spatial distribution of drought in a groundwater catchment[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2006, 321 (1-4): 257-275 doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.08.004 URL
[27]	Mehran A, Mazdiyasni O, AghaKouchak A. A hybrid framework for assessing socioeconomic drought: linking climate variability, local resilience, and demand[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 2015, 120: 1-14 doi: 10.1002/jgrd.v120.1 URL
[28]	门玉丽, 夏军, 叶爱中. 水位流量关系曲线的理论求解研究[J]. 水文, 2009, 29 (1): 1-3, 62.
	Men Y L, Xia J, Ye A Z. Theoretical equation of stage-discharge relation curve[J]. Journal of China Hydrology, 2009, 29 (1): 1-3, 62 (in Chinese)

2022年长江上游流域严重干旱对三峡水电站水力发电的影响分析

Analysis of the impact of severe drought in the upper Yangtze River basin on the hydroelectricity production of the Three Gorges Hydropower Station in 2022

RichHTML

PDF

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

图/表 16

参考文献 28

相关文章 0

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价