全球甲烷控排政策措施评述及其对中国的启示和建议

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.121

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

相比CO₂，甲烷（CH₄）寿命短、全球增温潜势高，同时也是地面臭氧污染的关键成分，对其排放进行管控对减缓气候变化和改善大气污染具有重要意义。目前全球人为CH₄排放处在上升阶段，其中畜牧业和油气领域是关键排放源。人为源与自然源或已形成正向反馈。就国别排放而言，《联合国气候变化框架公约》附件一缔约方的CH₄排放呈现下降趋势，非附件一国家面临挑战。各国主要采用规制类政策措施（例如标准）管控CH₄排放，市场手段为辅，同时自愿协议、伙伴关系也是非常重要的成本有效措施。中国通过多措并举在CH₄管控方面取得了一定成效，体现为总体排放增速较低，部分环节排放出现下降。未来中国CH₄管控面临多重挑战，包括成本高、难以避免结构性排放上升、基础支持体系比较薄弱。基于以上现状和挑战，文中提出针对性政策建议。

关键词: 甲烷（CH₄）, 控排, 政策措施

Abstract:

Compared with carbon dioxide, methane has a shorter lifetime and higher global warming potential (GWP) and also acts as a key ingredient of ground-level ozone pollution, so it is of great significance to control its emissions regarding climate change and air pollution mitigation. However, methane emissions are still growing up, in which livestock and oil/gas system are key categories. Regarding emission by parties, it shows a downward trend in Annex I parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change while non-Annex I parties face challenges. The major policies and measures (PaMs) implemented and adopted are regulatory ones (e.g. standards) to control methane emissions, supplemented by market-based measures. In the meantime, voluntary agreement and partnership are critical to find the most cost-effective options. China has achieved effectiveness in methane controlling by bunches of PaMs, as low growing rate of overall emission and even declining in some sectors is observed. Nevertheless, challenges are ahead, including high cost, emission growing induced by structural factors and weak supporting systems. Based on these findings, policy recommendations are raised.

Key words: Methane (CH₄), Emission control, Policies and measures

惠婧璇, 朱松丽. 全球甲烷控排政策措施评述及其对中国的启示和建议[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19(6): 683-692.

HUI Jing-Xuan, ZHU Song-Li. Overview on global policies and measures to control methane emissions and its implications for China[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(6): 683-692.

图/表 5

表1 IPCC历次评估报告给出的CO2和CH4大气寿命及不同时间尺度下的全球增温潜势（GWP）值

Table 1 Atmospheric lifetime and global warming potential (GWP) values at different time scales given in previous IPCC assessment reports of CO2 and CH4

图1 美国、欧盟、俄罗斯1990年和2021年各领域CH4排放情况

Fig. 1 CH4 emissions by sector in the United States, the European Union and Russia in 1990 and 2021

图2 中国、印度、巴西、印度尼西亚最新两年国家温室气体清单中各领域CH4排放情况

Fig. 2 CH4 emissions by sector in the latest two national greenhouse gas inventories of China, India, Brazil and Indonesia

表2 主要经济体CH4排放结构及总量比较

Table 2 Comparison of CH4 emission structure and total volume in major economies

表3 全球CH4控排协同效益

Table 3 Synergistic benefits of global CH4 emission control

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