中国春季复合极端低温多雨事件的年代际变化及成因分析

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.075

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用1961—2020年中国553站逐日最低气温、降水资料和ERA5再分析资料，探讨了我国春季复合极端低温多雨事件的年代际变化特征及可能成因。结果表明，春季复合极端低温多雨事件整体呈现出南多北少的分布型，并且高频次中心在西南和华南地区，年平均超过了5 d。全国绝大部分地区春季复合极端低温多雨事件近60年呈现减少趋势，在1990年代末期出现了由多转少的全国范围的年代际突变，并以我国东南部季风区的减少最为显著。进一步分析发现，我国北方至白令海峡地区的异常气旋性环流和我国东南侧西北太平洋上的异常反气旋性环流是引起年代际突变的两个关键环流系统。

关键词: 复合极端低温多雨事件, 年代际异常, 环流背景

Abstract:

Based on the daily minimum temperature data, precipitation data at 553 stations in China and ERA5 monthly reanalysis data from 1961 to 2020, the interdecadal variation characteristics and its possible causes of compound extreme cold and rainfall events in spring of China were explored. Results indicate that the compound extreme cold and rainfall events in spring exhibit a distribution pattern of more in the south and less in the north, with the highest frequency (more than 5 days per year on average) occurring in the Southwest and South China. The compound extreme cold and rainfall events in spring in the majority of regions in China have presented a decreasing trend in the past 60 years. In the late 1990s, there was a nationwide interdecadal mutation from more to less, with the most significant decreasing being in the monsoon region of southeastern China. Further analysis shows that the anomalous cyclonic circulation from northern China to the Bering Strait and the anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the northwest Pacific on the southeast of China are the two key circulation systems causing the interdecadal mutation.

Key words: Compound extreme cold and rainfall events, Interdecadal anomaly, Circulation background

周晶, 孙燕, 齐雅静. 中国春季复合极端低温多雨事件的年代际变化及成因分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2024, 20(1): 1-9.

ZHOU Jing, SUN Yan, QI Ya-Jing. Analysis on interdecadal variation and the causes of compound extreme cold and rainfall events in spring in China[J]. Climate Change Research, 2024, 20(1): 1-9.

图/表 8

图1 中国553站的分布情况

Fig. 1 The geographic distribution of 553 stations in China

图2 1961—2020年春季复合极端低温多雨事件的频数(a)和线性趋势(b) 注：(b)图中“+”表示趋势通过了90%的信度检验。

Fig. 2 Frequency (a) and linear trend (b) of the compound extreme cold and rainfall events during 1961-2020. (“+” indicates the trend passes the significance test at the confidence level of 90%)

图3 1961—2020年中国春季复合极端低温多雨事件频数EOF分解第一模态（a1,b1）和第二模态 (a2,b2)

Fig. 3 The eigenvector and time coefficient of the first mode (a1, b1) and the second mode (a2, b2) of EOF decomposition of the frequency of spring compound extreme cold and rainfall events in China from 1961 to 2020

图4 1961—2020年中国春季复合极端低温多雨事件发生频次的标准化距平(a)和MK检验(b)

Fig. 4 Normalized anomalies (a) and Mann-Kendall test (b) results of frequency of compound extreme cold and rainfall events in spring of China from 1961 to 2020

图5 各时段平均及两个时间段差值的春季复合极端低温多雨事件频次注：“+”表示通过了90%的信度检验。

Fig. 5 The average frequency of spring compound extreme cold and rainfall events during 1961-1999 (a), 2000-2020 (b), and the difference of 2000-2020 and 1960-1999 (c)

图6 中国春季复合极端低温多雨事件频数与200 hPa、500 hPa和850 hPa风场（矢量，黑色箭头表示通过90%信度检验）和高度场（阴影，白点表示通过90%信度检验）的回归

Fig. 6 Regression between the frequency of compound extreme cold and rainfall events in spring of China and wind fields (vector, black arrows indicate passing 90% confidence level), height fields (shaded, white dots indicate passing 90% confidence level) at 200, 500 and 850 hPa

图7 2000—2020年与1961—1999年两个时段200 hPa、500 hPa和850 hPa风场（矢量，黑色箭头表示通过90%信度检验)和高度场（阴影，白点表示通过90%信度检验)的差值

Fig. 7 The difference of wind field (vector, black arrows indicate passing 90% confidence level) and height field (shaded, white dots indicate passing 90% confidence level) at 200 hPa, 500 hPa, and 850 hPa between the periods of 2000-2020 and 1961-1999

图8 中国春季复合极端低温多雨事件频数与700 hPa比湿场的回归注：黑点表示通过90%的信度检验。

Fig. 8 Regression of the frequency of compound extreme cold and rainfall events in spring in China with a specific humidity at 700 hPa

参考文献 36

[1]	Su B D, Jiang T, Jin W B. Recent trends in observed temperature and precipitation extremes in the Yangtze River basin, China[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2006, 83 (1-4): 139-151. DOI: 10.1007/s00704-005-0139-y
[2]	Yang J H, Ren C Y, Jiang Z H. Characteristics of extreme temperature event and its response to regional warming in Northwest China in past 45 years[J]. Chinese Geographical Science, 2008, 18 (1): 70-76. DOI: 10.1007/s11769-008-0070-0
[3]	Pal I, Al-Tabbaa A. Long-term changes and variability of monthly extreme temperatures in India[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2010, 100 (1-2): 45-56. DOI: 10.1007/s00704-009-0167-0
[4]	Brabson B B, Palutikof J P. The evolution of extreme temperatures in the central England temperature record[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2002, 29 (24): 2163. DOI: 10.1029/2002GL015964
[5]	Alexander L V, Zhang X B, Peterson T C, et al. Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 2006, 111 (D5): D05109. DOI: 10.1029/2005JD006290
[6]	杨金虎, 江志红, 魏锋, 等. 近45 a来中国西北年极端高、低温的变化及对区域性增暖的响应[J]. 干旱区地理, 2006, 29 (5): 625-631.
	Yang J H, Jiang Z H, Wei F, et al. Variability of extreme high temperature and low temperature and their response to regional warming in Northwest China in recent 45 years[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2006, 29 (5): 625-631 (in Chinese)
[7]	刘雅星, 范广洲, 董一平, 等. 近46年中国冬季日均气温及极端温度的变化[J]. 成都信息工程学院学报, 2010, 25 (3): 286-292.
	Liu Y X, Fan G Z, Dong Y P, et al. Variations of winter daily average temperature and extreme temperature in the recently 46 years in China[J]. Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology, 2010, 25 (3): 286-292 (in Chinese)
[8]	付冬雪, 孙照渤, 李忠贤, 等. 1955—2006冬半年中国极端低温的时空变化特征[J]. 气象科学, 2011, 31 (3): 274-281.
	Fu D X, Sun Z B, Li Z X, et al. Spatial and temporal features of China extreme minimum temperature in winter half year during 1955-2006[J]. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences, 2011, 31 (3): 274-281 (in Chinese)
[9]	陈海山, 刘蕾, 朱月佳. 中国冬季极端低温事件与天气尺度瞬变波的可能联系[J]. 中国科学: 地球科学, 2012, 42 (12): 1951-1965. DOI: 10.1007/s11430-012-4442-z.
	Chen H S, Liu L, Zhu Y J. Possible linkage between winter extreme low temperature events over China and synoptic-scale transient wave activity[J]. Science China: Earth Sciences, 2012, 42 (12): 1951-1965. DOI: 10.1007/s11430-012-4442-z (in Chinese)
[10]	韩永秋, 周连童, 黄荣辉. 中国冬半年极端低温事件的时空特征及其与东亚冬季风的关系[J]. 气候与环境研究, 2021, 26 (1): 1-17. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2020.19018.
	Han Y Q, Zhou L T, Huang R H. Characteristics of the extreme low temperature events in China during boreal winter and its relationship to East Asian Winter Monsoon[J]. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2021, 26 (1): 1-17. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2020.19018 (in Chinese)
[11]	IPCC. Climate change 2021: the physical science basis[M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2021
[12]	Gruza G, Rankova E, Razuvaev V, et al. Indicators of climate change for the Russian federation[J]. Climate Change, 1999, 42: 219-242
[13]	Easterling D R, Evans J L, Groisman P Y, et al. Observed variability and trends in extreme climate events[J]. Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society, 2000, 72: 1507-1520 doi: 10.1175/1520-0477(1991)072<1507:OTUORH>2.0.CO;2 URL
[14]	Tank A M G K, Können G P. Trends in indices of daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe, 1946-1999[J]. Journal of Climate, 2003, 16 (22): 3665-3680 doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<3665:TIIODT>2.0.CO;2 URL
[15]	Kunkel K E, Easterling D R, Redmond K, et al. Temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the United States 1895-2000[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2003, 30 (17): 1900
[16]	Zhai P M, Zhang X B, Wan H, et al. Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China[J]. Journal of Climate, 2005, 18 (7): 1096-1108 doi: 10.1175/JCLI-3318.1 URL
[17]	Re M, Barros V R. Extreme rainfalls in SE South America[J]. Climatic Change, 2009, 96 (1/2): 119-136 doi: 10.1007/s10584-009-9619-x URL
[18]	Fu G B, Yu J J, Yu X B, et al. Temporal variation of extreme rainfall events in China, 1961-2009[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2013, 487: 48-59 doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.02.021 URL
[19]	Han H, Gong D Y. Extreme climate events over northern China during the last 50 years[J]. Geographical Sciences, 2003, 13 (4): 469-479
[20]	Zhai P M, Sun A J, Ren F M, et al. Changes of climate extremes in China[J]. Climate Change, 1999, 42: 203-218
[21]	翟盘茂, 王萃萃, 李威. 极端降水事件变化的观测研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2007, 3 (3): 144-148.
	Zhai P M, Wang C C, Li W. A review on study of change in precipitation extremes[J]. Climate Change Research, 2007, 3 (3): 144-148 (in Chinese)
[22]	Leonard M, Westra S, Phatak A, et al. A compound event framework for understanding extreme impacts[J]. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 2014, 5 (1): 113-128 doi: 10.1002/wcc.2014.5.issue-1 URL
[23]	McPhillips L E, Chang H, Chester M V, et al. Defining extreme events: a cross-disciplinary review[J]. Earth’s Future, 2018, 6 (3): 441-455 doi: 10.1002/eft2.v6.3 URL
[24]	Mazdiyasni O, AghaKouchak A. Substantial increase in concurrent droughts and heatwaves in the 12 United States[J]. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2015, 112: 11484-11489. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1422945112 pmid: 26324927
[25]	Zscheischler J, Westra S, van den Hurk B J J M, et al. Future climate risk from compound events[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2018, 8 (6): 469-477. DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0156-3
[26]	Bezak N, Mikoš M. Changes in the compound drought and extreme heat occurrence in the 1961-2018 period at the European scale[J]. Water, 2020, 12: 3543. DOI: 10.3390/w12123543
[27]	Kong Q Q, Guerreiro S B, Blenkinsop S, et al. Increases in summertime concurrent drought and heatwave in eastern China[J]. Weather Climate Extremes, 2020, 28: 100242 doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2019.100242 URL
[28]	Yu R, Zhai P M. Changes in compound drought and hot extreme events in summer over populated eastern China[J]. Weather and Climate Extremes, 2020, 30: 100295. DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2020.100295
[29]	Hersbach H, Bell B, Berrisford P, et al. ERA5 monthly averaged data on single levels from 1940 to present[J]. Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS), 2023. DOI: 10.24381/cds.f17050d7
[30]	余荣, 翟盘茂. 关于复合型极端事件的新认识和启示[J]. 大气科学学报, 2021, 44 (5): 645-649. DOI: 10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20210824006.
	Yu R, Zhai P M. Advances in scientific understanding on compound extreme events[J]. Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences, 2021, 44 (5): 645-649. DOI: 10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20210824006 (in Chinese)
[31]	朱乾根, 林锦瑞, 寿绍文, 等. 天气学原理和方法[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2007.
	Zhu Q G, Lin J R, Shou S W, et al. Principles and methods of weather science[M]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2007 (in Chinese)
[32]	侯亚红, 杨修群, 李刚. 冬季西伯利亚高压变化特征及其与中国气温的关系[J]. 气象科技, 2007, 35 (5): 646-650.
	Hou Y H, Yang X Q, Li G. Variation features of Siberian high and relation with winter temperature in China[J]. Meteorological Science and Technology, 2007, 35 (5): 646-650 (in Chinese)
[33]	丁婷, 王永光, 柯宗建, 等. 2016/2017 年冬季北半球大气环流及对我国冬季气温的影响[J]. 气象, 2017, 43 (7): 887-893.
	Ding T, Wang Y G, Ke Z J, et al. Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation in winter 2016/2017 and its impact on temperature in China[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2017, 43 (7): 887-893 (in Chinese)
[34]	谢韶青, 卢楚翰. 近16 a来冬季欧亚大陆中纬度地区低温事件频发及其成因[J]. 大气科学学报, 2018, 41 (3): 423-432. DOI: 10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20160415003.
	Xie S Q, Lu C H. Intensification of winter cold events over the past 16 years in the mid-latitudes of Eurasia and their causes[J]. Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences, 2018, 41 (3): 423-432. DOI: 10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20160415003 (in Chinese)
[35]	黄菲, 李金泽, 许士斌, 等. 东亚大槽冬春季节内演变的主模态时空特征[J]. 中国海洋大学学报 (自然科学版), 2019, 49 (10): 118-125.
	Huang F, Li J Z, Xu S B, et al. Spatiotemporal variability of the East Asian Trough intraseasonal evolution major modes in boreal winter and spring[J]. Periodical of Ocean University of China, 2019, 49 (10): 118-125 (in Chinese)
[36]	胡桂芳, 伯忠凯, 高理, 等. 山东冬季降水异常及其与东亚大槽的关系[J]. 气象与环境科学, 2021, 44 (1): 74-80. DOI:10.16765/j.cnki.1673-7148.2021.01.009.
	Hu G F, Bo Z K, Gao L, et al. The winter rainfall anomaly in Shandong and its relationship with the East Asian Trough[J]. Meteorological and Environmental Sciences, 2021, 44 (1): 74-80. DOI:10.16765/j.cnki.1673-7148.2021.01.009 (in Chinese)