增加值驱动视角下省域中间品贸易的碳减排效应

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.007

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

通过列向分解中国省域间投入产出表，从收入侧视角测算了省域增加值和进口驱动的碳排放，并运用双重结构分解模型（SDA）和反事实情景模拟，重点分析了省域中间品贸易是否存在碳减排效应。研究结果表明，研究期间省域增加值和进口驱动的省域间贸易隐含了大量的碳排放和碳转移。京津地区、东部沿海和南部沿海的主要省域单位增加值驱动的碳排放成本较低，且具有较高的碳排放效率。增加值变化驱动了省域碳排放增加。碳排放系数变化从阻力效应转变为促进效应。中间品贸易规模变化促进了碳排放的增加，省域内和省域间中间品贸易结构变化自2012年后均呈现阻力效应，且成为抑制省域碳排放的主要途径。本文从增加值驱动碳排放的新视角，为通过中间品贸易结构调整来降低碳排放和实现碳中和提供理论依据。

关键词: 增加值, 中间品贸易, 收入侧碳排放

Abstract:

Through the column decomposition of China’s inter-provincial input-output table, this paper calculates the carbon emissions driven by provincial value added and import from the perspective of income-side, and analyzes the carbon emission reduction effects of provincial intermediate trade by using dual Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA) and counterfactual scenario simulation. The results show that the inter-provincial trade driven by provincial added value and import implies large carbon emissions and carbon transfer during the study period. The carbon emissions cost per unit value added in Beijing-Tianjin region, the eastern coastal region and the southern coastal region are low, and these regions have higher carbon emission efficiency. Provincial value added significantly promotes the increase of provincial carbon emissions; The carbon emission coefficient changes from significant resistance effect to promotion effect; The scale of intermediate trade has promoted the increase of carbon emissions, and the structure of intra-provincial and inter-provincial intermediate trade has gradually shown significant resistance effect since 2012, which has become the main factors to drive provincial carbon emission reduction. From a new perspective of carbon emissions driven by value added, this paper provides a theoretical basis for reducing carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality through the adjustment of provincial intermediate trade structure.

Key words: Value added, Intermediate trade, Income-side carbon emissions

王文治, 唐帼. 增加值驱动视角下省域中间品贸易的碳减排效应[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19(6): 771-785.

WANG Wen-Zhi, TANG Guo. Carbon emission reduction effects of provincial intermediate trade from the perspective of value-added driven[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(6): 771-785.

图/表 10

附表1 行业匹配表

Attached table 1 Industry matching table

图1 30省域碳排放总量变化

Fig. 1 Change of total carbon emissions in 30 provinces

表1 2017年30省域生产侧（PBA)、收入侧（IBA）和消费侧（CBA）的碳排放

Table 1 Production-based (PBA), income-based (IBA) and consumption-based (CBA) carbon emissions of 30 provinces in 2017 Mt

表2 2007—2017年各省域单位增加值碳排放

Table 2 Carbon emissions per unit value added of each province during 2007-2017

图2 30省域收入侧碳排放总量的SDA分解结果注：?V为省域增加值变化对碳排放的影响，?M为省域进口变化对碳排放的影响，?hD为省域内中间品贸易结构变化对碳排放影响，?θ为省域间中间品贸易结构变化对碳排放的影响，?hE为省域中间品贸易规模变化对碳排放的影响，?F为省域碳排放系数变化对碳排放的影响。

Fig. 2 SDA decomposition results of income side carbon emissions of 30 provinces

表3 重点省域收入侧碳排放SDA分解

Table 3 SDA decomposition of income side carbon emissions of main provinces %

图3 省域中间品贸易对全国碳排放的影响（2007—2017年）

Fig. 3 Influence of provincial intermediate goods trade on national carbon emissions (2007-2017)

图4 主要省域中间品贸易对碳排放的影响

Fig. 4 Impacts of intermediate goods trade on carbon emissions in main provinces

表4 高碳排放省域内污染密集型行业中间品流入的变化（2012—2017年）

Table 4 Changes in the inflow of intermediate goods in pollution-intensive industries in high-carbon emission provinces (2012-2017)

表5 增加值驱动下的省域中间品流入变化（2012—2017年）

Table 5 Changes of provincial intermediate goods inflow driven by value added (2012-2017)

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