中国积雪气候调节服务价值评估

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.001

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2020, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (5): 536-544.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.001

中国积雪气候调节服务价值评估

刘世伟¹^,², 王晓明¹(), 效存德³, 杨洋¹^,², 吴雪娇¹

1 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室,兰州 730000
2 中国科学院大学,北京 100049
3 北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京 100875

收稿日期:2019-12-31 修回日期:2020-03-24 出版日期:2020-09-30 发布日期:2020-09-30
通讯作者: 王晓明
作者简介:刘世伟,男,博士研究生
基金资助:
自然科学基金重大项目(41690141);中国科学院率先行动“百人计划”学术帅才项目(A类)(王晓明);中国科学院A类战略性先导科技专项(XDA20100305);自然科学基金面上项目(41671058);自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(41701065)

Evaluating climate regulation service of snow cover in China

LIU Shi-Wei¹^,², WANG Xiaoming¹(), XIAO Cun-De³, YANG Yang¹^,², WU Xue-Jiao¹

1 State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
2 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3 State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Received:2019-12-31 Revised:2020-03-24 Online:2020-09-30 Published:2020-09-30
Contact: WANG Xiaoming

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

文中通过长时间中国雪深序列数据集、ERA-5的反照率数据,以及CESM-CAM5的辐射数据,分析了1988—2016年中国积雪的辐射强迫,并通过DICE/RICE模型计算其大气碳当量,进而对中国年均积雪气候调节服务价值进行了核算,同时分析其时空变化,由此得到功能分区。结果表明,中国积雪对于全球的辐射强迫贡献等价于-0.22 (±0.01) W/m²,相当于减少大气碳当量17 (±1) Gt C带来的降温效应,从能源转变的替代成本角度出发,其气候调节服务价值可达到3.9 (±2.1)万亿元。同时发现,由于积雪减少趋势引起的中国积雪气候调节服务衰减,相当于碳当量以0.67亿t/a的速率减少,这相当于每年气候调节服务衰减造成的替代成本达到150 (±12)亿元,在29年间累积损失可达4100 (±328)亿元。最后基于评估结果对中国积雪气候调节服务功能进行了分区讨论。

关键词: 积雪, 气候调节, 辐射强迫, 冰冻圈服务, 碳当量

Abstract:

Based on long time series dataset of snow depth in China, ERA-5 albedo data, and CESM-CAM5 radiative kernel data, the radiative forcing of snow cover in China from 1988 to 2016 was analyzed, and its atmospheric carbon equivalent was then calculated by the approach applied in DICE/RICE model. The climate regulation service of annual mean snow cover and its spatiotemporal change were subsequently analyzed. The results show that the contribution of snow cover in China to the global radiative forcing is -0.22 (±0.01) W/m², and the equivalent reduction of atmospheric carbon is 17 (±1) Gt C. By applying the current carbon price, the economic value of average climate regulation service alone can reach 3.9 (±2.1) trillion CNY. Meanwhile, it was also found that the carbon equivalent of snow cover climate regulation services decreases at a rate of 66.7 million t/a in China, which is equivalent to an annual loss of 15.0 (±1.2) billion CNY. The cumulative value loss is 410 (±32.8) billion CNY through 29 years. Division from climate regulation function of snow cover in China is finally proposed.

Key words: Snow cover, Climate regulation, Radiative forcing, Cryospheric service, Carbon equivalent

刘世伟, 王晓明, 效存德, 杨洋, 吴雪娇. 中国积雪气候调节服务价值评估[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2020, 16(5): 536-544.

LIU Shi-Wei, WANG Xiaoming, XIAO Cun-De, YANG Yang, WU Xue-Jiao. Evaluating climate regulation service of snow cover in China[J]. Climate Change Research, 2020, 16(5): 536-544.

图/表 5

表1 数据信息

Table 1 Datasets information

图1 1988—2016年中国积雪年均辐射强迫分布(a)及变化趋势(b)

Fig. 1 The spatial distribution of annual average (a) and trend (b) of SRF in China from 1988 to 2016

图2 1988—2016年中国SRF月际变化(a)及变化趋势(b)

Fig. 2 The monthly variation (a) and trend (b) of snow radiative forcing (SRF) in China from 1988 to 2016

图3 1988—2016年中国积雪气候调节服务碳当量年际变化(a)及累积损失价值(b)

Fig. 3 The annual variation of carbon equivalent (a) and cumulated loss value (b) of SRF in China from 1988 to 2016

图4 中国积雪气候调节功能分区

Fig. 4 Division from climate regulation function of snow cover in China

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中国积雪气候调节服务价值评估

Evaluating climate regulation service of snow cover in China

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