Loading...
 

ISSN 1673-1719
CN 11-5368/P
   Table of Content
  30 September 2010, Volume 6 Issue 05 Previous Issue    Next Issue
For Selected: View Abstracts Toggle Thumbnails
气候系统变化
Some Points of View on Detection and Attribution of Observed Changes in Hydrological Cycle Under Global Warming   Collect
Liu Chunzhen
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (05): 313-318.  
Abstract ( 4238 )   HTML (   PDF (3867KB) ( 2188 )  
The Good Practice Guidance Paper (GPGP) presents four different methods, which encompasses existent different approaches to investigate the causation chain. Since 1990, the detection and attribution study of climate changes has undergone a refinement process in spatial scale of temperature rise (warming) from the global to half-hemispheric scale and from the continental to regional scale, and an expansion process in research topic from lands to oceans, and from the climate system to other related systems. The fingerprinting detection and attribution method of anthropogenic climate changes has been extensively applied in studies on spatiotemporal pattern changes of global/large scale hydrological cycle elements, such as latitudinal band average precipitation, extreme precipitation, specific humidity, lower tropospheric moisture content, and individually in the streamflow impacted by external forcings, natural runoff, snow pack and minimum temperature on a river basin scale. For the river basins recharged by precipitation and impacted by human activities, the detection and attribution studies of hydrological cycle elements mainly focus on effects of observed climatic elements and non-climatic variables on streamflow, without the emphasis on causation by the anthropogenic component of climate change. For this kind of approach, long term observed climatic and non-climatic data, advanced statistic technology and hydrological model with better physical basis are vital for the correct recognition of causation process. In the river basins with high qualified long term observed climate and non-climate data, where hydrological variables are sensitive to climate changes, the optimal fingerprinting method will be valuable in detection and attribution studies.
Spatio-temporal Variations of Extremely Heavy Precipitation in the Circum-Bohai Sea Region During 1961-2007   Collect
GUO Jun
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (05): 319-324.  
Abstract ( 3943 )   HTML (   PDF (3204KB) ( 1680 )  
Yearly total precipitation has been continuously decreasing since the 1990s, accompanying with an acute problem of extremely heavy precipitation and drought. The daily precipitation data at 60 weather stations in the circum-Bohai Sea region from 1961 to 2007 were used to analyze the spatial distribution and temporal changes of the rainfall, intensity and frequency of extremely heavy precipitation, wherein the threshold of extremely heavy precipitation was determined by the percentile method. The results show that the extremely heavy precipitation of high intensity and frequency occurred where the corresponding annual rainfall was high, indicating that the rainfall of extremely heavy precipitation dominated the annual rainfall. Extremely heavy precipitation days showed a declining trend, especially in the central part of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area. Extremely heavy precipitation frequently occurred from middle July to middle August, with the top frequency in late July. Over the last 10 years the seasonal distribution of extreme precipitation was temporally relatively disperse and the extremely heavy precipitation with more than 25 station days occurred in a pentad was scarce. In contrast, extremely heavy precipitation with an interval of more than 30 d increased significantly in recent years.
Assessment of Snow Cover Vulnerability on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau   Collect
Lijuan MA;Qin Dahe;Cunde Xiao;Luo Yong
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (05): 325-331.  
Abstract ( 4317 )   HTML (   PDF (4515KB) ( 1834 )  
By using the daily air temperature, precipitation, snowfall, and accumulated snow phenomena data from 98 meteorological stations on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), this paper performs an "at-risk" evaluation on the snow cover formation, including snowfall and accumulated snow on the QTP under the current climatic condition and future climate warming situation. First of all, a critical climate condition is determined based on the daily air temperature and precipitation when there were rainfall, snowfall, or accumulated snow phenomena, that is, taking 0℃ air temperature as the critical condition of temperature between rainfall and snowfall, and 0℃ air temperature and 4.0 mm (autumn) or 3.0 mm (spring) snowfall as the critical conditions between accumulated snow and non-accumulated snow. Analyses based on the above critical conditions disclose that under the current climatic condition, stations with "at-risk" accumulated snow account for 33% and 36% of all stations and the proportions for "at-risk" snowfall reach 78% and 81% in autumn and spring, respectively. Spatially, most stations with "at-risk" accumulated snow locate at the edge of southern and eastern QTP, and stations with the "at-risk" snowfall also exist in the northern edge. If the air temperature increases 2.5℃ by 2050, the snowfall only in a few current "at-risk" snowfall stations will transform into rainfall, but most current "at-risk" accumulated snow stations will face the problem that snowfall is difficult to be accumulated and the stations will become "at-risk" accumulated snow stations, this means that both the snow depth and the snow cover duration over most areas of the QTP will decline, including the delay of the beginning date and the advance of the ending date.
Spatio-temporal Distribution of Snow Disaster in Qinghai Plateau During 1961-2008   Collect
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (05): 332-337.  
Abstract ( 3278 )   HTML (   PDF (4001KB) ( 1556 )  
Based on the snow depth data in winter and spring at 45 stations in the Qinghai Plateau from 1961 to 2008, the spatio-temporal distribution and frequencies of snow disaster in the Qinghai Plateau were analyzed according to the snow disaster standard of DB63 (i.e., the provincial standard). The results show that the snow disasters of all levels displayed a rising trend over the past 48 years except the exceptionally heavy snow disaster. The south of the Qinghai Plateau (including Yushu, Guoluo, southern Huangnan, southern Hainan and eastern Haixi) is the high frequency region of snow disasters but the snow disaster occurred rarely in the Qaidam Basin and eastern Qinghai. The frequency of snow disasters shows a generally rising trend since the 1960s.
Atmospheric Circulation Types and Their Climatic Characteristics over Beijing   Collect
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (05): 338-343.  
Abstract ( 4020 )   HTML (   PDF (3384KB) ( 1806 )  
Lamb-Jenkinson atmospheric circulation classification scheme was used to classify the circulation type of daily average sea level pressure over Beijing in 1948-2008. The following conclusions are drawn that among 27 circulation types, primary types are A, C and SW, and their occurrence frequencies are 23.8%, 15.4% and 7.0%, respectively. Frequencies of types A and C tend to increase, but the increasing rate of type A is much greater than that of type C. The seasonal primary circulation types are A and C in spring, C and SW in summer, and A in autumn and winter, but type CSW can not be ignored in summer. It is fine and cool in winter Beijing under type A, mostly rainy in summer under type C and rainless under type SW, and dry and hot under type CSW, especially after 2000.
Long-Term Drought Severity Variations Recorded in Tree Rings in the Northern Helan Mountains   Collect
zhang ruibo
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (05): 344-348.  
Abstract ( 3585 )   HTML (   PDF (2910KB) ( 1630 )  
A drought index series reconstruction for north-central China was presented based on tree-ring-width chronologies developed from three sites of Pinus tabulaeformis in the northern Helan Mountains. The drought index reconstruction, spanning 1759-2005, was developed by calibrating the tree-ring-width chronologies with the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), which describes the regional moisture condition properly. The reconstructed PDSI in May-July (PDSI5-7) was verified with independent data, and accounted for 47.90% of the actual PDSI5-7 variance during their common period (1953-2005). The mean of PDSI5-7 over 1759-2005 was estimated at -0.41. The full reconstruction indicates that the regional drought variability was relatively stable during the nineteenth century, but became more variable and persistent during the twentieth century. The drought epoch in the late 1920s was the severest one and the 1870s and 1940s were two wetter decades in our reconstruction.
Climatological Characteristics and Trends of Fogs in Hainan Province   Collect
Shengan Wu
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (05): 349-355.  
Abstract ( 4099 )   HTML (   PDF (4953KB) ( 19505 )  
Climatological characteristics of the spatio-temporal distribution and change trend of fog days in Hainan Province were analyzed based on the observational data of Hainan in 1969-2008, and the causes for changes in fog days were also analyzed based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and meteorological factors. The results show that the fog days was the most in the central mountainous area, the next in the northern coastland, and the least in the southern coastland; and yearly fog days exhibited a decreasing trend. Analysis also indicates that yearly fog days was negatively closely correlated with average minimum temperature and positively correlated with relative humidity. Fogs formed more frequently and successively in autumn, winter and early spring. The regions with a higher altitude or a lower temperature had more fog days. In the years when fog days was more than normal, the 850 hPa continental high was relatively weaker, and the 500 hPa subtropical high was relatively weaker too; and vice versa in less fog days years.
气候变化影响
Progresses in Research on Impacts of Global Climate Change on Winter Ski Tourism   Collect
YANG Jian-Ming
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (05): 356-361.  
Abstract ( 4296 )   HTML (   PDF (3386KB) ( 1893 )  
Tourism's responses to the challenge of global climate change are nowadays an important issue for tourism researchers. Winter ski tourism, which has been called "the canary in the coalmine" is highly sensitive to climate change. In recent years, the research on the impacts of climate change on ski tourism has increasingly gained concern all over the world, nevertheless, the relevant study is still blank in China. In order to present a useful reference for Chinese investigators, this paper systematically summarizes the relevant research ideas, the technical methods used, and the achievements obtained, through extensive synthesis of previous studies, and pointes out the major shortcomings concerning the current studies, as well as some primary issues that should be paid attention to in the further studies.
对策论坛
An Analysis on Carbon Capture and Storage Technology, Regulations and Its Emission Reduction Potential   Collect
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (05): 362-369.  
Abstract ( 4295 )   HTML (   PDF (4918KB) ( 1929 )  
This paper introduces the development of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology, the progresses in CCS demonstration projects, and the international regulations and policies related to CCS technology. Barriers for the large-scale deployment and application of CCS are discussed, and different technological solutions for emission reduction are compared (e.g. energy conservation and renewable energy). The analysis shows that, on the one hand, the negative impacts of CCS deployment should be carefully evaluated, and on the other hand, the research and development (R&D) input of key CCS techniques also need to be enhanced in order to grasp core technologies in the CCS system. Furthermore, CCS incentives should depend on actual CCS development. At last, based on current situation, we need to focus on the development of existing thermal power plants which retrofit with CCS technology, so it can do more help to future large-scale promotion of CCS.
Low Carbon Technology Development Roadmap for China   Collect
Jiang Kejun
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (05): 370-375.  
Abstract ( 4504 )   HTML (   PDF (4266KB) ( 2021 )  
Climate change is a global issue to which high importance has been attached by all countries in the world. The international society, including both developed and developing countries, has made continuing efforts to address the issue. It is essential and important for China to follow a low carbon pathway, on which the technology will play a key role, in the economic and social development in the future. On the basis of the Integrated Policy Assessment Model for China (IPAC model), this paper analyzes a technology development roadmap for China to achieve a low carbon scenario. The results show that there are plenty of potential and opportunities for China to move towards a low carbon society, under the condition of enhanced and accelerated application and expansion of key low carbon technologies, which needs strong policy and measure supports from all sectors in China.
Nuclear Power Development for Greenhouse Gases Emission Reduction Under Climate Change   Collect
JIANG Zi-Ying
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (05): 376-380.  
Abstract ( 3998 )   HTML (   PDF (2696KB) ( 1489 )  
It is a consensus of international society to promote the development of low carbon economy in order to face the challenges of climate change. According to the features of nuclear energy, the greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions of nuclear energy chain and other energy chains are compared and analyzed, and the results indicate that the GHGs emission of nuclear power chain is the least in all types of power generation. The status of nuclear power development and GHGs emission reduction in major nuclear power countries of the world is presented, and the potential benefits of GHGs emission reduction by developing nuclear power in China are also analyzed. Active nuclear power development is one of the reasonable choices for constructing the low-carbon energy structure and for addressing climate change in China.
简讯
Coordinated Research on Orderly Human Activity to Cope with Global Climate Change-Our Thoughts and Recommendations   Collect
DONG Wen-jie
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (05): 381-382.  
Abstract ( 2870 )   HTML (   PDF (1445KB) ( 1506 )  
Selection of Representative Meteorological Stations for Climate Change Studies in Hunan Province   Collect
Liao Yufang
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (05): 383-385.  
Abstract ( 2752 )   HTML (   PDF (1829KB) ( 1732 )  
Is the Projection of Climate Change in Future Creditable in the IPCC Reports?   Collect
Zhao Zongci
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (05): 386-387.  
Abstract ( 2785 )   HTML (   PDF (1620KB) ( 1750 )  
科学知识
Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age   Collect
Wang Shaowu
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (05): 388-390.  
Abstract ( 3317 )   HTML (   PDF (1412KB) ( 2688 )  
京ICP备11008704号-4
Copyright © Climate Change Research, All Rights Reserved.
Tel: (010)58995171 E-mail: accr@cma.gov.cn
Powered by Beijing Magtech Co. Ltd