Abstract: Evaluation and projection of temperature extremes over China are carried out with 8 model data from CMIP5. Compared with the NCEP reanalysis data, multi-model weighted ensemble has a capacity of reproducing the 8 temperature extreme indices and 20-year return values of annual maximum/minimum temperature. The time correlation coefficients of all the 8 indices between multi-model ensemble and the reanalysis can reach 0.10 significance level and the spatial correlation coefficients of 20-year return values of annual maximum/minimum temperature are greater than 0.98. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, more extreme warm and less cold events are expected over China in multi-model ensemble. By the middle of the 21st century, the heat wave duration index will be multiplied 2.6 times. At the end of the 21st century, the cold wave duration index will decrease 71%, and the 20-year return values will increase 4℃ in parts of China for the maximum/minimum temperature.

Key words: CMIP5, temperature extremes, RCP4.5 scenario, return period, projection