Abstract: China's CO2 emissions change during 1971-2005 was analyzed by using Kaya identity in combination with the evolution of macroeconomic background. The study indicates that the increase of CO2 emissions is mainly due to rapid economic development and population growth. Meanwhile, improvement of energy intensity and optimization of energy structure are not only the important options in terms of CO2 abatement, but also play an important role in realizing the target of 20% reduction in energy consumption per GDP during the 11th Five-Year Plan.

Key words: Kaya identity, CO2 emission, economic growth, energy intensity, primary energy structure