|
|
Climate Change Research ›› 2025, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (4): 449-460.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.015
• 20th Anniversary of Climate Change Research • Previous Articles Next Articles
CUI Peng1,2(
), WANG Yan1, ZHANG Guo-Tao1, ZHANG Zheng-Tao3, LEI Yu2, WANG Hao2, WANG Jiao2, HAO Jian-Sheng1, ZHU Hong1
Received:2025-02-25
Revised:2025-04-27
Online:2025-07-30
Published:2025-07-10
CUI Peng, WANG Yan, ZHANG Guo-Tao, ZHANG Zheng-Tao, LEI Yu, WANG Hao, WANG Jiao, HAO Jian-Sheng, ZHU Hong. Disaster risk prevention under climate change: current status, challenges, and scientific issues[J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(4): 449-460.
Add to citation manager EndNote|Ris|BibTeX
URL: https://www.climatechange.cn/EN/10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.015
| [1] | Masson-Delmotte V, Zhai P, Pirani A, et al. Climate change 2021: the physical science basis[M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2021 |
| [2] | WMO. Atlas of mortality and economic losses from weather, climate and water-related hazards[R/OL]. 2023 [2025-01-05]. https://public.wmo.int/en/resources/atlas-of-mortality |
| [3] | Bhatia K T, Vecchi G A, Knutson T R, et al. Recent increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates[J]. Nature Communications, 2019, 10 (1): 635. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-08471-z |
| [4] | Myhre G, Alterskjær K, Stjern C W, et al. Frequency of extreme precipitation increases extensively with event rareness under global warming[J]. Scientific Reports, 2019, 9 (1): 16063. DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-52277-4 |
| [5] | Wang H, Wang B, Cui P, et al. Disaster effects of climate change in High Mountain Asia: state of art and scientific challenges[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2024, 15 (3): 367-389 |
| [6] | Jolly W, Cochrane M, Freeborn P, et al. Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013[J]. Nature Communications, 2015 (6): 7537 |
| [7] | Ciais P, Reichstein M, Viovy N, et al. Europe-wide reduction in primary productivity caused by the heat and drought in 2003[J]. Nature, 2005, 437 (7058): 529-533 |
| [8] | Huggel C, Carey M, Emmer A, et al. Anthropogenic climate change and glacier lake outburst flood risk: local and global drivers and responsibilities for the case of Lake Palcacocha, Peru[J]. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2020, 20 (8): 2175-2193 |
| [9] | Huggel C, Clague J, Korup O. Is climate change responsible for changing landslide activity in high mountains?[J]. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 2012, 37 (1): 77-91 |
| [10] | Wang Y, Cui P, Zhang C, et al. Antecedent snowmelt and orographic precipitation contributions to water supply of Pakistan disastrous floods, 2022[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2024, 15 (3): 419-430 |
| [11] | IPCC. Climate change 2022: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability[M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2022 |
| [12] | Barnes E. Revisiting the evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in midlatitudes[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2013, 40 (17): 4734-4739 |
| [13] |
Webster P, Holland G, Curry J, et al. Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment[J]. Science, 2005, 309 (5742): 1844-1846
doi: 10.1126/science.1116448 pmid: 16166514 |
| [14] | Wang Z, Duan A, Yang S, et al. Atmospheric moisture budget and its regulation on the variability of summer precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2017, 122 (2): 614-630 |
| [15] | Trenberth K, Cheng L, Jacobs P, et al. Hurricane harvey links to ocean heat content and climate change adaptation[J]. Earth’s Future, 2018, 6 (5): 730-744 |
| [16] | Hao Z, Hao F, Xia Y, et al. Compound droughts and hot extremes: characteristics, drivers, changes, and impacts[J]. Earth-Science Reviews, 2022, 235: 104241 |
| [17] | Ni Y, Qiu B, Miao X, et al. Shift of soil moisture-temperature coupling exacerbated 2022 compound hot-dry event in eastern China[J]. Environmental Research Letters, 2024, 19 (1): 014059 |
| [18] | 王岩, 王昊, 崔鹏, 等. 气候变化的灾害效应与科学挑战[J]. 科学通报, 2024, 69 (2): 286-300. |
| Wang Y, Wang H, Cui P, et al. Disaster effects of climate change and the associated scientific challenges[J]. Science Bulletin, 2024, 69 (2): 286-300 (in Chinese) | |
| [19] | Cui P, Jia Y. Mountain hazards in the Tibetan Plateau: research status and prospects[J]. National Science Review, 2015, 2 (4): 397-399 |
| [20] | Li Z, Feng Q, Wang X, et al. Accelerated multiphase water transformation in global mountain regions since 1990[J]. The Innovation Geoscience, 2023, 1 (3): 100033 |
| [21] | AghaKouchak A, Mirchi A, Madani K, et al. Anthropogenic drought: definition, challenges, and opportunities[J]. Reviews of Geophysics, 2021, 59 (2). DOI: 10.1029/2019rg000683 |
| [22] | 崔鹏, 郭晓军, 姜天海, 等. “亚洲水塔”变化的灾害效应与减灾对策[J]. 科学通报, 2019, 34 (11): 1313-1321. |
| Cui P, Guo X J, Jiang T H, et al. Disaster effects and mitigation strategies of the “Asian Water Tower” changes[J]. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2019, 34 (11): 1313-1321 (in Chinese) | |
| [23] | 贾洋, 崔鹏. 西藏冰湖溃决灾害事件极端气候特征[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2020, 16 (4): 395-404. |
| Jia Y, Cui P. The extreme climate background for glacial lakes outburst flood events in Tibet[J]. Climate Change Research, 2020, 16 (4): 395-404 (in Chinese) | |
| [24] | Zhang T, Li D, East A, et al. Warming-driven erosion and sediment transport in cold regions[J]. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 2022, 3 (12): 832-851 |
| [25] | 崔鹏, 胡凯衡, 陈华勇, 等. 丝绸之路经济带自然灾害与重大工程风险[J]. 科学通报, 2018, 63 (11): 989-997. |
| Cui P, Hu K H, Chen H Y, et al. Natural disasters and major engineering risks in the Silk Road Economic Belt[J]. Science Bulletin, 2018, 63 (11): 989-997 (in Chinese) | |
| [26] | Chand S, Walsh K, Camargo S. Declining tropical cyclone frequency under global warming[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2022, 12 (7): 655-661 |
| [27] | Wang G, Wu L, Mei W, et al. Ocean currents show global intensification of weak tropical cyclones[J]. Nature, 2022, 611 (7936): 496-500 |
| [28] | Cao X, Watanabe M, Wu R, et al. The projected poleward shift of tropical cyclogenesis at a global scale under climate change in MRI-AGCM3.2H[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2024, 51 (3): e2023GL107189 |
| [29] | Studholme J, Fedorov A, Gulev S, et al. Poleward expansion of tropical cyclone latitudes in warming climates[J]. Nature Geoscience, 2022, 15 (1): 14-28 |
| [30] | Zhao H, Zhao K, Klotzbach P, et al. Interannual and interdecadal drivers of meridional migration of western North Pacific tropical cyclone lifetime maximum intensity location[J]. Journal of Climate, 2022, 35 (9): 2709-2722 |
| [31] |
Li Y, Tang Y, Wang S, et al. Recent increases in tropical cyclone rapid intensification events in global offshore regions[J]. Nature Communications, 2023, 14 (1): 5167
doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-40605-2 pmid: 37620321 |
| [32] | Shan K, Lin Y, Chu P, et al. Seasonal advance of intense tropical cyclones in a warming climate[J]. Nature, 2023, 623 (7985): 83-89 |
| [33] | Greve P, Orlowsky B, Mueller B, et al. Global assessment of trends in wetting and drying over land[J]. Nature Geoscience, 2014, 7 (10): 716-721 |
| [34] | Wang G, Wang D, Trenberth K, et al. The peak structure and future changes of the relationships between extreme precipitation and temperature[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2017, 7 (1): 268-274 |
| [35] | Chi H, Wu Y, Zheng H, et al. Spatial patterns of climate change and associated climate hazards in Northwest China[J]. Science Reports, 2023, 13: 10418 |
| [36] | Zhou P, Liu Z. Likelihood of concurrent climate extremes and variations over China[J]. Environmental Research Letters, 2018, 13 (9): 094023 |
| [37] | Pepin N, Bradley R, Diaz H, et al. Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of the world[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2015, 5 (5): 424-430 |
| [38] | 崔鹏, 贾洋, 苏凤环, 等. 青藏高原自然灾害发育现状与未来关注的科学问题[J]. 中国科学院院刊, 2017, 32 (9): 985-992. |
| Cui P, Jia Y, Su F H, et al. Natural hazards in Tibetan Plateau and key issue for feature research[J]. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2017, 32 (9): 985-992 (in Chinese) | |
| [39] | Cui P, Ge Y, Li S, et al. Scientific challenges in disaster risk reduction for the Sichuan-Tibet Railway[J]. Engineering Geology, 2022 (309): 106837 |
| [40] | Hao J, Cui P, Zhang X. The triggering mechanisms for different types of snow avalanches in the continental snow climate of the central Tianshan Mountains[J]. Science China Earth Sciences, 2022. DOI: 10.1007/s11430-021-9983-0 |
| [41] | Hao J, Wang Y, Li L. Snowpack variations and their hazardous effects under climate warming in the central Tianshan Mountains[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2024, 15 (2024): 442-451 |
| [42] | Zong X, Yin Y, Yin M. Climate change unevenly affects the dependence of multiple climate-related hazards in China[J]. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2024, 7 (1). DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00614-4 |
| [43] | Fu Z, Zhou W, Xie S, et al. Dynamic pathway linking Pakistan flooding to East Asian heatwaves[J]. Science Advances, 2024, 10 (17): eadk9250 |
| [44] | Ebel B, Martin D. Meta-analysis of field-saturated hydraulic conductivity recovery following wildland fire: applications for hydrologic model parameterization and resilience assessment[J]. Hydrological Processes, 2017, 31 (21): 3682-3696 |
| [45] | Touma D, Stevenson S, Swain D, et al. Climate change increases risk of extreme rainfall following wildfire in the western United States[J]. Science Advances, 2022, 8 (13): 1-11 |
| [46] | Immerzeel W, Lutz A, Andrade M, et al. Importance and vulnerability of the world’s water towers[J]. Nature, 2020, 577 (7790): 364-369 |
| [47] | Pritchard H. Asia’s glaciers are a regionally important buffer against drought[J]. Nature, 2017, 545 (7653): 169-174 |
| [48] |
Li D, Lu X, Overeem I, et al. Exceptional increases in fluvial sediment fluxes in a warmer and wetter High Mountain Asia[J]. Science, 2021, 374 (6567): 599-603
doi: 10.1126/science.abi9649 pmid: 34709922 |
| [49] | Dai K, Li Z, Xu Q, et al. Entering the era of earth observation-based landslide warning systems: a novel and exciting framework[J]. IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Magazine, 2020, 8 (1): 136-153 |
| [50] | IPCC. Climate change and land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems[M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2019 |
| [51] | IPCC. Climate change 2022: mitigation of climate change[M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2022 |
| [52] | 崔鹏, 邹强, 欧阳朝军. 一种山地灾害全过程数值模拟与险情预报方法(CN113553792A)[P]. 2021-09-18. |
| Cui P, Zou Q, Ouyang C J.A method for numerical simulation and risk prediction of mountain hazards (CN113553792A)[P]. 2021-09-18 (in Chinese) | |
| [53] | Bi K, Xie L, Zhang H, et al. Pangu-weather: a 3D high-resolution model for fast and accurate global weather forecast[J]. Nature, 2023, 619 (7970): 533-538 |
| [54] | Chen X, Wang Y, Li Q, et al. Fuxi: a deep learning system for subseasonal extreme precipitation prediction[J]. Science Advances, 2023, 9 (24): eadj5137 |
| [55] | Chi H, Wu Y, Zheng H, et al. Spatial patterns of climate change and associated climate hazards in Northwest China[J]. Science Reports, 2023, 13 (1): 10418 |
| [56] | 宫清华, 叶玉瑶, 王钧, 等. 粤港澳大湾区防灾韧性空间规划策略研究[J]. 规划师, 2021, 37 (3): 6, 22-27. |
| Gong Q H, Ye Y Y, Wang J, et al. Resilient disaster prevention space planning of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Great Bay area[J]. Planners, 2021, 37 (3): 6, 22-27 (in Chinese) | |
| [57] | 张薰予. 基于自然的解决方案在深圳城中村的应用实践: 以“冈厦1980”改造项目为例[J]. 大自然保护协会, 2022 (14): 56-62. |
| Zhang X Y. Application of Nature-Based Solutions in Shenzhen urban villages: a case study of the “Gangxia 1980” reconstruction project[J]. The Nature Conservancy (China), 2022 (14): 56-62 (in Chinese) | |
| [58] | 李明, 刘勤, 王玉宽, 等. 构建山区综合减灾与特色产业协同模式, 助力我国山区高质量发展[J]. 中国科学院院刊, 2023, 38 (12): 1818-1832. |
| Li M, Liu Q, Wang Y K, et al. Synthetical solution of disaster risk reduction and green development: a novel mode promoting high-quality development in mountain areas of China[J]. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2023, 38 (12): 1818-1832 (in Chinese) | |
| [59] | 祁生文, 刘方翠, 徐梦珍, 等. 小流域生态-岩土协同减灾原理与方法初探[J]. 水力发电学报, 2024, 43 (2): 1-14. |
| Qi S W, Liu F C, Xu M Z, et al. Preliminary study on principles and methods of ecological-geotechnical engineering coordinated disaster reduction for small watersheds[J]. Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering, 2024, 43 (2): 1-14 (in Chinese) | |
| [60] | Dottori F, Szewczyk W, Ciscar J, et al. Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with anthropogenic warming[J]. Nature Climate Change, 2018, 8: 781-786 |
| [61] | Cammalleri C, Naumann G, Mentaschi L, et al. Global warming and drought impacts in the EU[J]. Publications Office of the European Union, 2020. DOI: 10.2760/597045 |
| [62] |
Abatzoglou J, Williams A, Barbero R. Global emergence of anthropogenic climate change in fire weather indices[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2019, 46: 326-336
doi: 10.1029/2018GL080959 |
| [63] | Goss M, Swain D, Abatzoglou J, et al. Climate change is increasing the likelihood of extreme autumn wildfire conditions across California[J]. Environmental Research Letters, 2020, 15 (9): 094016 |
| [64] | Swain D, Langenbrunner B, Neelin J, et al. Climate change is narrowing and shifting precipitation seasonality in the North American West[J]. Science Advances, 2021, 7 (6): eabc5921 |
| [65] | Liu K, Wang Q, Wang M, et al. Global transportation infrastructure exposure to the change of precipitation in a warmer world[J]. Nature Communications, 2023, 14 (2541): 1-9 |
| [66] | United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR). Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction 2015-2030[R/OL]. 2015 [2025-01-05]. https://www.undrr.org/publication/sendai-framework-disaster-risk-reduction-2015-2030 |
| [67] | Formetta G, Feyen L. Empirical evidence of declining global vulnerability to climate-related hazards[J]. Global Environmental Change, 2019, 57: 101920 |
| [68] | United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR). Global status report on disaster risk reduction[R/OL]. 2023 [2025-01-05]. https://www.undrr.org/gar2023 |
| [69] | Kreibich H, Schröter K, Baldassarre D, et al. The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management[J]. Nature, 2022, 608 (7921): 80-86 |
| [70] | Tellman B & Eakin H. Governancing the ungovernable: practicing adaptation to climate change in the Anthropocene[J]. Global Environmental Change, 2022, 72: 102423 |
| [71] |
Cui P, Peng J, Shi P, et al. Scientific challenges of research on natural hazards and disaster risk[J]. Geography and Sustainability, 2021, 2 (3): 216-223
doi: 10.1016/j.geosus.2021.09.001 |
| [72] | 崔鹏, 王姣, 王昊, 等. 如何科学防控与预警巨灾风险?[J]. 地球科学, 2022, 47 (10): 3897-3899. |
| Cui P, Wang J, Wang H, et al. How to scientifically prevent and warn of catastrophic risks?[J]. Earth Science, 2022, 47 (10): 3897-3899 (in Chinese) | |
| [73] | Yang Y, Tatano H, Huang Q, et al. Evaluating the societal impact of disaster-driven infrastructure disruptions: a water analysis perspective[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2021, 52: 101988 |
| [74] | Zhang Z, Cui P, Hao J, et al. Analysis of the impact of dynamic economic resilience on post-disaster recovery “secondary shock” and sustainable improvement of system performance[J]. Safety Science, 2021, 144: 1-10 |
| [75] | 佟彬, 殷跃平, 李昺, 等. 地质灾害人工智能大语言模型研究展望[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报, 2025, 36: 1-12. |
| Tong B, Yin Y P, Li B, et al. Review on artificial intelligence-based large language models for geological hazards[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 2025, 36: 1-12 (in Chinese) | |
| [76] | Xu C, Xue Z. Applications and challenges of artificial intelligence in the field of disaster prevention, reduction, and relief[J]. Natural Hazards Research, 2024, 4 (1): 169-172 |
| [77] | Xie L, Zhang H, Chen X, et al. Accurate medium-range global weather forecasting with 3D neural networks[J]. Nature, 2023, 619: 533-538 |
| [78] | 张茂省, 贾俊, 王毅, 等. 基于人工智能(AI)的地质灾害防控体系建设[J]. 西北地质, 2019, 52 (2): 103-116. |
| Zhang M X, Jia J, Wang Y, et al. Construction of geological disaster prevention and control system based on AI[J]. Northwestern Geology, 2019, 52 (2): 103-116 (in Chinese) | |
| [79] | Ghaffarian S, Taghikhah F, Maier H. Explainable artificial intelligence in disaster risk management: achievements and prospective futures[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2023, 98: 104123 |
| [80] |
Adger W, Hughes T, Folke C, et al. Social-ecological resilience to coastal disasters[J]. Science, 2005, 309 (5737): 1036-1039
pmid: 16099974 |
| [1] | FAN Xing, LIANG Qi-Di, WU Cheng-Lin, GAO Xiang. Stocktaking on the Baku Climate Change Conference and perspectives on global climate governance [J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(4): 583-592. |
| [2] | SUN Ruo-Shui, LIANG Mei-Cong. From Paris to Belém: progress and forecast at the decennial of Paris Agreement [J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(4): 574-582. |
| [3] | TAN Xian-Chun, CHENG Yong-Long, YAN Hong-Shuo, XING Xiu-Cheng, ZHU Kai-Wei, WANG Chen-Xu. Interpretation and implications of the summary on climate change mitigation in the IPCC Seventh Assessment Report Working Group III [J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(4): 494-501. |
| [4] | CHEN Xian-Yao, BI Han-Wen, HAO Xiao-Jie, MA Tian-Jiao, GUO Ling-Rui. Variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and its impact on global climate change [J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(4): 469-476. |
| [5] | ZHU Song-Li. The evolution of country classification under UNFCCC system [J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(4): 565-573. |
| [6] | DING Jie, CAO Zuo-Nan, HU Guo-Zheng, HASBAGAN Ganjurjav, ZHAO Fen, WANG Hai-Feng, GAO Qing-Zhu. Climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability and implications in Working Group II of the IPCC Seventh Assessment Report [J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(4): 484-493. |
| [7] | WANG Bo-Wen, HE Yi, TENG Fei. Attribution and assessment of direct and indirect economic losses from extreme weather events in China [J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(4): 502-518. |
| [8] | JIANG Ke-Jun. Role of Integrated Assessment Model in global response to climate change and its future research transition [J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(4): 461-468. |
| [9] | CHEN Si-Da, LIU Kai, LI Bo-Hao, WANG Ming. The analysis of record-breaking probability of extreme weather in China’s poverty-alleviated counties [J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(3): 327-339. |
| [10] | ZHANG Qin, ZHANG Li-Ping, LI Yi, LIU Li-Na, SHE Dun-Xian, ZHOU Zhi-Ling, YUAN Zhe. Research progress on uncertainty quantification and constraint methods for climate and hydrological projections [J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(3): 317-326. |
| [11] | LI Hui-Hui, QI Ming, SUN Ren-Jin. International practices and Chinese path of climate transition finance standards [J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(3): 428-439. |
| [12] | SHI Ying, XU Ying, CHAO Qing-Chen, ZHANG Meng-Ran, HAN Zhen-Yu, WANG Rong. Climate change projection over the west route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project based on CMIP6 global climate models [J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(3): 340-352. |
| [13] | QU Yang, WANG Ming-Ming, ZHOU Fang-Zhuo, HUANG Jun-Ling, CHANG Shi-Yan. Assessment of climate change impacts on energy systems based on Climatic Impact Driver framework [J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(3): 353-363. |
| [14] | WANG Ying-Shan, SUN Wei-Jun, DING Ming-Hu, LIU Wei-Gang, DU Wen-Tao, QIN Xiang, ZHANG Dong-Qi. Characteristics of glacier mass balance changes and response to climate change in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China [J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(2): 208-220. |
| [15] | SUN Ying, WANG Dong-Qian, ZHANG Xue-Bin. Progress in climate change detection and attribution studies in China [J]. Climate Change Research, 2025, 21(2): 153-168. |
| Viewed | ||||||
|
Full text |
|
|||||
|
Abstract |
|
|||||
|