关键词: 温室气体, 稳定浓度, 温室气体排放情景, 温度

Abstract: Using the output of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models participating in the AR4 of IPCC, this paper has studied the spatio-temporal characteristics of surface air temperature and precipitation in China when the greenhouse gases (GHGs) concentration stabilizes at levels of 550 and 720 mL/m3 for nearly a century (2101-2198). The results show that the temperature誷 warming rate is 0.4℃/100a under the two stabilization scenarios, in addition, the warming tendency is much smaller than those under the SRES A1B and B1 scenarios. Warming is most remarkable in winter and spring, with warming amplitude becoming generally greater from low latitudes toward high latitudes, and next in summer and autumn, which leads to the reduction in temperature differences between seasons. Although the annual mean precipitation still increases when the GHGs concentration stabilizes, the increasing amplitude tends to be stable at 11% (720 mL/m3) and 8% (550 mL/m3), respectively. The increase in winter precipitation is more apparent than in other seasons; the increase also becomes larger from low latitudes toward high latitudes. The summer and autumn precipitation decreases 10%~30% in most areas of China.

Key words: greenhouse gas, stabilization concentration, GHGs emission scenarios, temperature, precipitation