COP30贝伦气候大会适应议题成果解析及对我国未来应对启示

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.258

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

气候变化引发的极端事件对全球经济社会发展构成严重威胁，发达国家负有历史排放责任但履行“共同但有区别的责任原则”国际义务不力，发展中国家因能力不足面临更严峻的挑战，加剧了国际气候治理的复杂性。全球适应目标（GGA）是2015年《巴黎协定》确立的重要事项，但因目标模糊且缺少适用于评估全球适应进展的工具，谈判长期停滞。文中全面解析了从COP26至COP30，GGA议题谈判焦点问题、各方立场及里程碑成果，特别分析了COP30达成的“贝伦适应指标”体系。该体系围绕水资源、粮食安全等七大领域及气候变化影响、脆弱性与风险评估—规划制定—行动实施—监测评估与反馈等4个环节，通过精简近500项指标至59项核心指标，强调自愿性、非指令性原则，并建立“贝伦-亚的斯适应愿景”，完善“巴库适应路线图”，明确发达国家资金与技术支持的义务。发展中国家在指标制定中坚持“共同但有区别的责任原则”，推动指标反映缔约方义务，聚焦公共政策行为，避免干涉各国行政主权，确保指标聚焦适应核心需求。COP30呼吁各国2026—2027年试用GGA指标，并启动国家反馈机制，同时GGA还设定2035年适应资金翻3倍的目标。文中进一步分析了后续中国适应行动与参与和引领多边气候治理面临的挑战，认为需结合国际国内复杂形势，提升我国参与全球气候治理进程的策略，包括强化国内数据统计体系与国际报告要求接轨，推动国际磋商多边协调机制落实，为全球气候治理贡献中国气候韧性方案。

关键词: 全球适应目标（GGA）, 贝伦适应指标, 共同但有区别的责任原则, 适应资金, 路径选择

Abstract:

Extreme events driven by climate change pose significant threats to global economic and social development. Developing countries confront heightened vulnerabilities due to the historical emissions of developed nations and their own limited adaptive capacity, while delayed fulfillment of “Common but Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR)” by developed countries has further intensified the complexities of international climate governance. The Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), established under the 2015 Paris Agreement, has long faced negotiation stagnation owing to ambiguous objectives and the absence of a robust assessment framework. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of key negotiation issues, evolving positions of Parties, and milestone outcomes concerning the GGA from COP26 to COP30, with particular emphasis on the “Belém Adaptation Indicators” adopted at COP30. The indicator framework spans seven priority areas, including water resources and food security, and encompasses four stages of assessment on climate change impact, vulnerability, and risk, planning, implementation, and monitoring, evaluation and learning. By streamlining an almost 500 proposed indicators before COP30 to 59 by the end of COP30, the framework emphasizes voluntary application and non-prescriptive guidance. It also establishes the “Belém-Addis Adaptation Vision” and the “Baku Adaptation Roadmap (Phase I)”, which clarify the financial and technical support obligations of developed countries. Throughout the process, developing countries upheld the principle of CBDR, advocating for the exclusion of data from private institutions, mitigation-related indicators, and content implicating national sovereignty, thereby ensuring that the framework remains focused on essential adaptation needs. The COP30 decision further sets an ambitious target to triple international adaptation finance by 2035 and launches a pilot mechanism on the 59 indicators for testing and feedback from multiple scales, in particular national level. This paper also examines the challenges confronting China’s domestic adaptation efforts and its engagement in international multilateral processes, underscoring the importance of leveraging this framework to strengthen national data and statistical systems, and taking into account international reporting needs, advance multilateral coordination mechanisms, and contribute Chinese approaches to building climate resilience within global climate governance.

Key words: Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), Belém Adaptation Indicators, Common but Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR), Adaptation finance, Path selection

刘硕, 王伯葳, 李玉娥, 高清竹, 王斌, 苗田田. COP30贝伦气候大会适应议题成果解析及对我国未来应对启示[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2026, 22(1): 121-132.

LIU Shuo, WANG Bo-Wei, LI Yu-E, GAO Qing-Zhu, WANG Bin, MIAO Tian-Tian. Analysis of the outcomes of adaptation-related negotiations at the COP30 Climate Conference in Belém and implications for China’s future climate response strategies[J]. Climate Change Research, 2026, 22(1): 121-132.

图/表 5

图1 全球适应目标（GGA）议题演进过程

Fig. 1 Evolution process on Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA)

表1 全球适应目标（GGA）各子类指标数量变化

Table 1 Changes in the number of indicators for each subcategory of Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA)

图2 GGA指标焦点问题、发达国家和发展中国家核心关切注：AGN、AILAC、ARAB、LMDC、AOSIS和LDC分别表示非洲集团、埃拉客集团、阿拉伯集团、立场相近发展中国家集团、小岛屿国家集团和最不发达国家集团；EU、UK、AUS、CAN和JAP分别表示欧盟、英国、澳大利亚、加拿大和日本；UAE-BELEM WP表示“阿联酋-贝伦工作计划”，即GGA指标开发计划。

Fig. 2 Overview of key issues and core concerns of GGA indicators between developed countries and developing countries

表2 贝伦适应指标内容

Table 2 Content of Belém adaptation indicators

图3 2025—2030年GGA议题关键事项注：实线表示已具有实质安排，虚线表示仅具有意向但尚未做出实质安排；GST2、BAR分别表示全球盘点第二周期、巴库适应路线图。

Fig. 3 Key matters under GGA from 2025 to 2030. (Solid lines indicate that substantive arrangements have been made by decisions under CMAs, while dashed lines indicate that only intentions exist but no substantive arrangements have been made)

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