数字经济赋能“双碳”战略研究——影响机理及实现路径

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.067

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

数字经济已成为支撑当前和未来经济发展的重要动力，在“双碳”目标下，探讨数字经济发展能否助力减排对当前经济高质量发展以及生态文明建设都具有重要价值。为验证数字经济与碳排放之间复杂的影响路径，文中采用双向固定效应模型、中介效应模型、门槛效应模型及空间杜宾模型进行实证分析。结果发现：数字经济可以显著抑制碳排放强度和人均碳排放；数字经济可以帮助调整能源结构进而显著减少碳排放；随着能源效率的提高，数字经济与碳排放之间的关系呈现倒“U”型特征；在3种空间距离权重矩阵下，数字经济对碳排放的作用效果展现出空间溢出特征。研究结论为进一步推动数字经济发展、实现“双碳”目标提供了有价值的决策参考。

关键词: 数字经济, 中介效应, 门槛效应, 空间溢出效应

Abstract:

The impact of carbon emissions is global, posing a threat to global climate, ecological balance, human health and other aspects. Digital economy is being integrated into various fields of economic and social development, and its impact on carbon emissions deserves attention and exploration. In order to verify the complex internal influence path between digital economy and carbon emissions, this study successively adopts the two-way fixed effects model with time and individual effects, the mediation model, the threshold effect model and the spatial Durbin model. The empirical results show that: first, digital economy can significantly inhibit carbon emission intensity and per capita carbon emissions; Second, the digital economy can help adjust the energy structure, thus significantly reducing carbon emissions. Third, with the improvement of energy efficiency, digital economy and carbon emissions show an inverted U-shaped relationship. Fourthly, under three spatial weight matrices, the effects of digital economy on carbon emission show spatial spillover effect. The conclusions of this study provide reference for further promoting the development of digital economy and realizing China’s “Dual Carbon” goals.

Key words: Digital economy, Mediating effect, Threshold effect, Spatial spillover effect

刘莉雯, 王谋. 数字经济赋能“双碳”战略研究——影响机理及实现路径[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2024, 20(4): 440-453.

LIU Li-Wen, WANG Mou. Digital economy empowers “Dual Carbon” goals: influence mechanism and implementation path[J]. Climate Change Research, 2024, 20(4): 440-453.

图/表 12

表1 CO2排放系数

Table 1 Carbon dioxide emission coefficient

表2 数字经济指标测度

Table 2 Digital economy index measurement

表3 基准回归结果

Table 3 Results of baseline regression

表4 稳健性检验

Table 4 Results of robust regression

表5 工具变量法估计结果

Table 5 Estimation results of instrumental variable method

表6 区域异质性结果

Table 6 Heterogeneity analysis of region

表7 数字经济维度异质性

Table 7 Heterogeneity analysis of digital economy

表8 中介效应检验

Table 8 The mediation effect test

表9 门槛效应回归

Table 9 Threshold effect regression

表10 各省能源效率情况

Table 10 Energy efficiency by province

表11 空间杜宾模型回归结果

Table 11 Spatial Durbin model regression results

表12 空间效应分解

Table 12 Spatial effect decomposition

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