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ISSN 1673-1719
CN 11-5368/P
   Table of Content
  30 January 2010, Volume 6 Issue 01 Previous Issue    Next Issue
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气候系统变化
Analysis of Air Temperature Sensitivity of Snow Cover Days on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau   Collect
Lijuan MA;Qin Dahe;Cunde Xiao;Luo Yong
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (01): 1-07.  
Abstract ( 3387 )   HTML (   PDF (4266KB) ( 1732 )  
Based on the observed monthly snow cover days and homogenized air temperature data in 1951-2004, this study performs the quantitative analysis of the air temperature sensitivity of snow cover days on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Results show that both the extreme sensitivity and sensitivity under the current climate are higher in the edge than in the central area of the plateau. There exists a strong negative correlation between the critical air temperatures when the relative snow cover days reach the extrema and the elevation of the station. However, the relationship between the extreme sensitivity and the elevation is not as strong as the correlation between the critical air temperature and the elevation although they present certain negative relationship. Currently, the climatological air temperatures at quite a few of stations do not reach the critical situation, with a proportion to all stations of 36%, 39%, 47%, and 11% in autumn, winter, spring, and summer, respectively. Under the current background of climate warming, the sensitivity of snow cover days at these stations will become greater; that is, snow cover days there will be more sensitive to air temperature.
Evolutional Characteristics of Utilizable Precipitation over Yunnan Province from 1961 to 2006   Collect
Tao Yun
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (01): 8-14.  
Abstract ( 3280 )   HTML (   PDF (4205KB) ( 1697 )  
Based on the monthly precipitation and temperature data of Yunnan's 122 stations from 1961 to 2006, the utilizable precipitation was calculated by means of Takahashi's evaporation equation. Its evolutional characteristics under the background of the global climate warming were analyzed by using the methods of regression analysis. The results indicate that the utilizable precipitation decreased in summer, autumn and winter season, especially in summer, so that annual utilizable precipitation also obviously reduced in the past nearly 50 years over Yunnan Province. The seasonal and annual utilizable precipitation all showed distinctively interannual and interdecadal oscillations except the winter utilizable precipitation which only displayed interannual variations. Regionally, winter and spring utilizable precipitation increased, and summer one reduced in most of Yunnan Province, and autumn utilizable precipitation reduced in the eastern but increased in the western of Yunnan Province; and annual utilizable precipitation reduced in the eastern and southern of Yunnan Province, but mainly increased in the rest areas. When the global climate was warmer, annual utilizable precipitation was lesser in most of Yunnan Province and vice versa.
Projected Stream Flow in the Huaihe River in 2010-2100   Collect
Xiaofan Zeng;Su Buda;Bi-wen WU
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (01): 15-21.  
Abstract ( 3689 )   HTML (   PDF (4199KB) ( 2038 )  
Based on the observed precipitation and temperature data at 14 meteorological stations of the Huaihe River basin from 1964 to 2007, and the climate projection from 2001 to 2100 by the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model, the streamflow for the basin from 2010 to 2100 were projected under the SRES-A2, -A1B, and-B1 scenarios by applying artificial neural network (ANN) hydrological models. The results show that differences in annual streamflow from 2010 to 2100 are significant under the three scenarios; the streamflow under the SRES-A2 scenario displays a general increasing trend, especially significant from 2051 to 2085, it declines gradually in fluctuation from 2024 to 2037 under the SRES-A1B scenario, and shows no obvious trend under the SRES-B1 scenario. Fluctuations of spring streamflow in 2010-2100 are the smallest in all four seasons, ranging from -15.1% to 18.6% under the three scenarios. Summer average streamflow decreases before the 2040s and increases subsequently whilst the fluctuations are not significant. Autumn streamflow has obvious fluctuations under the SRES-A2 and SRES-A1B scenarios; it drops in the 2060s under the SRES-A2 scenario by 50.6%, which is the maximum decreasing range for all projected seasons. Winter streamflow increases in 2050s under SRES-A1B scenario by 54.7%, which is the maximum increasing range in four seasons.
Trends of Ten Main Extreme Weather Indices in Wuhan   Collect
Gao Rong
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (01): 22-28.  
Abstract ( 4268 )   HTML (   PDF (3580KB) ( 2125 )  
Based on the daily temperature and precipitation data from 1951 to 2007 in Wuhan, 10 main series of extreme indices on weather and climate were calculated and the change of extreme weather and climate were revealed through trends analysis, abrupt analysis and decadal comparisons. It is found that: 1) among 4 extreme indices concerning temperature, the annual and four seasonal 90th percentiles of maximum temperatures (txq90) and 10th percentiles of minimum temperatures (tnq10) all showed rising trends that led to the extension of the maximum length of heat wave duration (txhw90) and the reduction of the day number of frosts (tnfd), respectively, but the tnq10 rose quicker than the txq90, and the trends of tnfd and tnq10 were all extremely significant especially for winter and year, and the trends of txq90 and txhw90 were significant only in spring and winter, respectively. Those changes led to more frequent "hot spring", "warm winter", "warm night", "sultry weather", and "strong convective phenomenon" in the evening-night and also more "warm day", "heat wave" but less "frost day". 2) trends of 6 major extreme indices concerning precipitation were mostly rising, among them the 90th percentile of rainday rainfall (pq90) and its percentage (pfl90) and days (pnl90) and also the maximum 5-day total rainfall (px5d) were rising most significantly in winter, but the pq90 and pfl90 were declining slightly in summer. The rising trend of the simple daily intensity (pint) in winter and the reducing trend of the maximum length of consecutive dry days (pxccd) were significant at the 0.1 and 0.01 significance level, respectively. 3) some abrupt points were detected from the late 1980s to early 1990s for some temperature indices.
气候变化影响
Impacts of Climate Warming on Energy Consumed in Heating Period in Hohhot   Collect
li xi-cang
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (01): 29-34.  
Abstract ( 3216 )   HTML (   PDF (3700KB) ( 1463 )  
Based on the daily temperature and wind speed data, and relevant parameters provided by the heat supply sector of Hohhot during 1962-2007, and the relevant heating regulation, by means of mathematic statistics methods, the temporal evolution of winter heating and the impact of climate warming on the energy consumed for winter heating are analyzed. It is concluded that with climate warming, the heating period has been shortened by 30 days, especially after 1988 when an abrupt change in daily average temperature took place; the energy consumed in the heating period is closely related with the duration and degree-day of the heating period each year, and they both have shown a significant decline trend in past 46 years, indicating that the winter in Hohhot is warming and the cold period is getting shorter, therefore, the energy consumed is reduced: 88% of the years when the energy consumed in the heating period was more than normal occurred in the period of the 1960s to 1970s, and 85% of the years when the energy consumed was less than normal appeared in the period of the 1990s to now, suggesting that the persistent warming period started from the 1990s.
温室气体排放
Estimation of CO2 Emission of Locomotives in China During 1975-2005   Collect
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (01): 35-39.  
Abstract ( 2996 )   HTML (   PDF (3127KB) ( 1589 )  
Based on the annual production data collected by Chinese Railway Statistic Center, the CO2 emission of locomotives during 1975-2005 was calculated and the emission intensity and its dynamic characteristics were analyzed. The results show that the CO2 emission of steam locomotives decreased while that of diesel locomotives increased with time because more diesel locomotives and electric locomotives were continually put into service to replace steam locomotives. The total CO2 emission of locomotives in China's railway network decreased from 42.23 million t in 1975 to 16.40 million t in 2005. The emission intensity of CO2 from two kinds of locomotives decreased at an average rate of 2.4 g/(converted t·km) per year. The proportion of the CO2 emission of locomotives to the total emission in the sector of transportation, storage and post in China also persistently decreased from 1980 to 2005.
The Research of Greenhouse Gas Accounting System for Power Industry   Collect
Gao Qingxian
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (01): 40-46.  
Abstract ( 3311 )   HTML (   PDF (4574KB) ( 1888 )  
This paper investigates compiling methods of greenhouse gas emission inventories in major developed countries and domestic relevant experience, and then based on the characteristics of China's power industry and the target, scale, and method of the inventory compilation, proposes the basic principle of "IPCC-recommended T2 as the major method and T3 as the subsidiary one" for compiling the greenhouse gas emission inventory of China's power industry; after referring foreign good practice in greenhouse gas accounting, by combining with the reality of the power industry in China, classifies and analyzes entities of the emission inventories and then according to the scope and definition of greenhouse gas emission inventories and the availability of data, establishes the methodological framework system for compiling the greenhouse gas emission inventories of the power industry which is in line with China's reality.
A Review and Analysis of Advances in Sectoral Approaches   Collect
Wang Can
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (01): 47-52.  
Abstract ( 3248 )   HTML (   PDF (4166KB) ( 1716 )  
Sectoral approaches have gained more and more attention after being brought out in Bali Action Plan and being positively promoted by developed countries. Based on the brief introduction to sectoral approaches?definition, classification and motivation, this paper reviews the advances and development trends of sectoral approaches to greenhouse gas mitigation. Finally the paper concludes with the synthesis and analysis of main features of those advances, and points out the challenges to confront and the questions to answer for developing countries, especially for China, from national and sectoral perspectives.
Selection of CO2 Emission Scenarios in China During 2000-2050   Collect
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (01): 53-59.  
Abstract ( 2937 )   HTML (   PDF (4135KB) ( 1457 )  
A matured regional dynamic integrated model of climate and the economy (DICE/RICE) was introduced and used to assess the effect of CO2 mitigation on China's economy. Seven CO2 emission scenarios during 2000-2050 were designed by adjusting the control rate of CO2 emission of the model. The CO2 emissions, economic development and consumption utility of China were assessed on the premise that the total concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is constant. The results show that a number of CO2 alternative policies could all ensure that the increment of global average surface temperature will be below the threshold value of 3.2℃, thus effectively protecting the safety of global climate in future 200 years. When China's CO2 emissions in 2050 decreases from 253% to 50% of the emission quantity in 2000, the decline amplitude of China's GDP will increase from 0.33% to 12.22% in comparison with the scenario without control of CO2 emission, correspondingly, the decline amplitude of consumption function level will increase from 0.00422 to 0.09946; both the two decline amplitudes distinctively increase with the increase amplitude in the reduction of CO2 emission. Therefore, China needs to put the additional investment of 62.196-1378.473 billion dollars for the reduction of CO2 emission, which account for 0.19%-10.5% of the GDP value, respectively. Comprehensive consideration suggests that it is reasonable that China should choose the scenario that China's CO2 emission in 2050 is 2.53 times of that in 2000.
对策论坛
Progress in Negotiations on Harvested Wood Products   Collect
BAI Yan-Feng;Chun qian Jiang;De LU
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (01): 60-64.  
Abstract ( 2565 )   HTML (   PDF (3068KB) ( 1424 )  
Harvested wood products (HWP) alter the national carbon balance between the forest ecosystem and the atmosphere. It's a great potential to substitute fossil fuels by HWP as energy and to prolong HWP's lifetime for mitigation of GHG emissions. Therefore, HWP has been a concernment issue of the negotiations of climate change and will be a hot topic of Conference of Parties in a long term. This paper reviews and analyzes progresses in the negotiation and proposals from parties on the accounting and estimate of HWP, and puts forward some deserved business for consideration, as well as some suggestions.
Views and Responding Suggestions on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries   Collect
BI Xin-Xin;Li Yue
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (01): 65-69.  
Abstract ( 3370 )   HTML (   PDF (3438KB) ( 1498 )  
Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) in developing countries has become an important issue in the international climate negotiation. Various parties have delivered proposals on REDD since the 11th Conference of Parties (COP) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Besides the disagreement in the methodological issues, Brazil and other developing countries in Central America and Africa hoped to get additional financial and technical supports from developed countries through funds. However, developed countries, such as the United States, Australia and European Union intended to support the market based on the clean development mechanism. According to the current situation of forest management in China, possible influences of REDD action on China's economy were analyzed and the responding suggestions were presented for the future international climate negotiation.
简讯
Test of Calibration on the Paleoclimatic Proxy Data by Using Chinese Historical Records   Collect
Zhang Deer
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (01): 70-72.  
Abstract ( 2272 )   HTML (   PDF (2082KB) ( 1798 )  
Tackling Climate Change with Technology   Collect
Zhao Zongci
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (01): 73-74.  
Abstract ( 2020 )   HTML (   PDF (1544KB) ( 1554 )  
科学知识
4.2 kaBP Event   Collect
Wang Shaowu
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (01): 75-76.  
Abstract ( 2010 )   HTML (   PDF (993KB) ( 1637 )  
2.8 kaBP Event   Collect
Wang Shaowu
Climate Change Research. 2010, 6 (01): 77-78.  
Abstract ( 1930 )   HTML (   PDF (1168KB) ( 1451 )  
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