Linear regression and Mann-Kendall non-parametric test were first used to analyze the change characteristics of the hydrological and meteorological elements in the water source area (catchment) of the Middle Route Project of South-to-North Water Transfer; then a distributed hydrological SWAT model was developed based on a digital elevation model and the land use and soil type information, and its applicability in the catchment was also verified. Finally, the precipitation, temperature and runoff response processes were analyzed based on the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report multi-mode ensembles under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SRES A2 and A1B) in 2011-2050. The analysis results show that precipitation in the catchment had no trend, temperature rose slowly, and surface runoff decreased slowly during 1961-2000. Compared with the baseline period, precipitation, temperature and runoff in the catchment in future 40 years will all increase under the A2 and A1B scenarios, especially under the A2 scenario, but the increment amplitude of runoff will be less than that of precipitation, this may be associated with the increase in evaporation. Future climate change will have a little influence on the runoff of the water source area, and thus will generally be favorable to the South to North Water Transfer Project.

Based on observed precipitation data in East Asia and the multi-model ensemble derived from the outputs of AOGCMs participating in the IPCC AR4, and using EOF analysis and Morlet wavelet transform, the preliminary assessment of AOGCMs simulation capabilities for temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation in China from 1961 to 2000 has been done, and the projections under the SRES A1B scenario in the 21st century are also presented. The results show that the AOGCMs are able to reproduce the distribution of the observed precipitation in China, and also able to demonstrate its regional features; AOGCMs have good performances on periodic variation with 10-year, 20-year scales. The principal spatial pattern of annual and summer precipitation over China is mainly wet-type in the 21st century under the SRES A1B scenario. However, the characteristics of winter precipitation are different, showing alternation between dry-type and wet-type.

Based on the observed daily precipitation data at 26 meteorological stations in the Changjiang-Huaihe River valley, and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1961 to 1990 as well as the climate projections in middle and late 21st century by the HadCM3 model under the IPCC SRES A1B, the simulation capabilities of the statistical downscaling approach for extreme precipitation indices of the current climate have been assessed by applying canonical correlation analysis (CCA). In addition, future extreme precipitation indices in middle and late 21st century have been projected. The results show that the modeling capacity of the HadCM3 for regional climate characteristics can be effectively improved by the downscaling approach, with reducing the relative error of the climatological average state of extreme precipitation indices by 30% -100%. However, the downscaling results are still wetter in winter and dryer in summer than observations. Under the SRES A1B, frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are projected to increase, and the estimated increasing rate is higher for extreme precipitation index than for average one, and in summer than in winter. Fractions of extreme precipitation in middle/late 21st century are expected to increase by 14% / 25% in winter, and by 24% / 32% in summer, respectively.

Threshold values of extreme precipitation events were determined individually according to the 90th and 95th percentile values of annual daily precipitation series at the 116 meteorological stations of Inner Mongolia during the period 1961-2008. The frequencies, distributive and change characters of extreme precipitation events were examined in recent 48 years. Changes in the frequency and rainfall of extreme precipitation events after the temperature abrupt change in about 1987 were also analyzed. The results show that 1) the threshold values of extreme precipitation events were generally small, within 2.1 and 23.8 mm, the extreme precipitation events occurred 2.4 to 20.9 days in a year, and there were distinctive spatial differences in the distributive character and change of the threshold values, frequencies, and rainfall of extreme precipitation events. 2) Extreme precipitation events in Inner Mongolia whether for summer or for the whole year both showed no obvious trend in recent 48 years. 3) The rainfall of extreme precipitation events decreased in the middle and southeast of Inner Mongolia, but increased in the northeast and west, after the temperature abrupt increase in 1987.

Diurnal temperature range (DTR), defined as daily maximum temperature minus the daily minimum, has significantly changed under the global warming. Both observation and simulation researches have shown a decreasing trend of global DTR since the 1950s, resulted from its natural variation and human activities. Solar radiation, cloud cover, aerosols, land cover change, water vapour, precipitation and contrails, etc., can influence the DTR. Weekend effect of DTR is able to indicate anthropogenic impact on climate change, while the DTR variation caused by urbanization could be a better indicator of urbanization誷 effect on regional climate than the mean temperature variation. This study is a review of researches on DTR, including its variation, influential factors and indicator function of human activities impact on climate change.

The 53 stations in Central China, including Henan, Hubei and Hunan, were selected through the homogenization test. Based on the daily average temperature data from 1961 to 2007, the heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) per year were calculated to analyze their trends, decadal variations and spatial differences. The results show that the regional annual HDD was reduced significantly in the past 47 years, and the annual CDD showed a slight declining, which was related with a smaller warming rate in the warm season. Spatially, the HDD appeared a decreasing trend from Henan to Hunan, while the CDD showed an opposite character. The HDD changed in an opposite phase with the average temperature in the cold season, while the CDD changed in the same phase with the average temperature in the warm season.

Based on the annual and monthly mean temperature data at 135 weather stations in Southwest China from 1961 to 2005, and according to altitude, topographical and climatic features, Southwest China was divided into three terrains with different altitudes or four subregions, the spatial-temporal characteristics of temperatures for the four subregions were analyzed. The results show that the annual mean temperature exhibited a clear warming trend in most Southwest China, especially in the high altitude regions, such as Xizang Plateau, but cooling trends in northeast Sichuan and northern Yunnan. Seasonal warming rates for the four subregions were successively winter, fall, and summer or spring in a descending order, which is different from that of the national mean temperature rising rates; and warming trend in winter was clearly stronger than those in other seasons. Annual mean temperatures of each subregion showed a marked declining trend or no significant changes from the 1960s to the mid-1980s, but have shown a significant warming trend since 1997. The Mann-Kendall non-parametric test results of subregion annual mean temperatures show that the warming abrupt change occurred in the late 1990s; and the abrupt change time was earlier in high altitude subregion than those in lower altitude subregions.

This paper overviews the new set of integrated scenarios, representative concentration pathways (RCPs), provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the fifth assessment process, analyzes the advantages of new approaches to scenarios development, and depicts the characteristics of the identified four RCPs (RCP8.5, RCP6, RCP4.5 and RCP3-PD). By using the RCPs database updated by IPCC, the paper analyzes the global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, regional emissions and emission abatement costs under the high, intermediate-range and low RCP scenarios. More importantly, the paper investigates the relationship between low RCP and keeping the global temperature rise below 2℃, identifies the challenges brought to China, and presents China’s countermeasures for addressing the challenges.

By using methods of carbon footprint, and impacts of population, affluence and technology (IPAT), the article analyzed the carbon footprints of residential livings and travel and their influential factors under different urban residential incomes, on the basis of conducting 1500 household questionnaires in Shijiazhuang City, Hebei Province. The results show that the process in which urban residents improve their living standards is also the one to push carbon footprints growing; at the same time, the progress in technology has a positive impact on reducing the carbon footprints of urban residential livings. Thus, the article suggests that some measures, such as promoting energy-saving buildings and central heating supply, and establishing the convenient and comfortable public transport system, should be taken to cut down the carbon footprints of residential livings and travel.

This paper uses Lorenz Curve and Gini Index with adjustment to per capita historical cumulative emission and constructs Carbon Gini Index to measure inequality in climate change area. The analysis using Carbon Gini Index shows that 70% of carbon space in the atmosphere has been used for unequal distribution, which is almost the same as that of income in the country with the biggest gap between rich and poor in the world. The carbon equity should be an urgency and a priority in the climate agenda. Carbon Gini Index established in this paper can be used to measure inequality in distribution of carbon space and provide a quantified indicator for measurement of carbon equity among different proposals.

The long-term global goal for emission reductions under negotiation stirs up the dispute between countries on how this increasingly scarce atmospheric resource should be equitably shared in the world. Developing countries advocate for the philosophy of equal or converging per-capita cumulative emission rights over time. Four operational definitions of per-capita cumulative emissions dealing with the changing populations were presented and interpreted by means of mathematical expressions, which thereby derived four possible emission rights allocating options. Simulation results and comparative analysis demonstrate that the Option 1# always deviates from the assumed global emission path, the “population freezing” Option 4# does not hold water to freeze the actually changing populations, while the Option 2# and 3# both make sense.

Based on a number of sector mitigation policies and measures reported and verified by the domestic systems, this paper demonstrates how measurable, reportable and verifiable mechanisms are applied at the sectoral level in China. Furthermore, these mitigation policies and measures are diverse in terms of measurable, reportable, verifiable approach and their mitigation effects. These characters should be regarded as part of case foundation in the international construction of MRV.

From the early 1990s to the present, German climate protection policy has evolved from “environmental policy” to “win-win strategy” then to “reaching integration”. At the same time, the policies are well implemented and have achieved good results. Responding to the impact of climate change, ensuring energy security, keeping the national competitiveness, promoting the environmental protection diplomacy, supporting the public with strong environmental awareness and comprehensively considering cost-benefit are the key motivations for the development of German climate protection policy. German climate protection policy and its motivations provide significant references for China’s policy-making of climate protection policy and the realizing of the goals of energy-saving and emission reduction.